IMF backs Nigeria inflation easing after CPI methodology rejig

Nigeria’s inflation trajectory gained fresh credibility after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) endorsed newly revised consumer price data showing a marked easing in price pressures, following a methodological overhaul by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that aligns inflation measurement with global standards.

The IMF said the December 2025 inflation figures released by the NBS point to a sustained moderation in prices that could help ease cost-of-living strains and bolster macroeconomic stability in Africa’s most populous nation.

“We welcome the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability,” the Fund said Thursday night in a statement issued by its Nigeria Resident representative, Christian Ebeke.

Read also: What to know about Nigeria’s 15.15% inflation rate for December

With the new methodology, Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed to 15.15% in December, down from 17.33% in November and far below the 34.80% recorded a year earlier, according to data published by the NBS.

On a monthly basis, inflation eased to 0.54% from 1.22% in November, signaling a deceleration in short-term price increases as food and core price pressures softened. The moderation comes alongside a significant revision to Nigeria’s inflation framework.

The NBS recently rebased and reweighted its CPI, using 2024 as the reference year and linking the old index to the new series. The IMF said the change brings Nigeria’s inflation measurement in line with international best practice under the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI framework.

Under the revised approach, inflation is calculated using a 12-month average reference period rather than a single month, a move designed to improve stability and comparability over time.

As a result of the methodological change, some previously published inflation figures were revised upward, including the November reading, now put at 17.33% compared with an earlier estimate of 14.45%. The statistics office said that relying on a single-month base would have distorted the data. “The Consumer Price Index rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from the previous month,” the bureau said, adding that the slower increase showed easing price momentum. Officials said the revisions do not alter the broader trend of disinflation seen through 2025.

The IMF noted that while the methodological shift led to changes in reported levels, the data continue to show inflation declining steadily over the year, reinforcing confidence in the direction of policy and macroeconomic conditions.

Adeyemi Adeniran, Nigeria’s statistician-general and head of NBS said the rebasing reflects updated consumption patterns and economic structure following years of high inflation and currency volatility.

“The CPI report is centred on a new CPI base year of 2024 and a weight reference period of 2023,” he said, noting that the use of a 12-month reference period helps avoid artificial spikes driven by base effects rather than real price movements.

Despite the improvement, challenges remain. The 12-month average inflation rate is still elevated, underscoring the pressure households continue to face after years of surging food and energy costs.

Even so, the IMF’s endorsement of both the easing trend and the revised methodology is likely to strengthen investor confidence in Nigeria’s data credibility and provide policymakers with a firmer statistical foundation as they pursue tighter monetary and fiscal coordination to entrench price stability.

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