Inflation Eases to 15.15% Amid Moderation in Energy, Food, Commodity Prices

• Severe in Abia, Ogun, Katsina, others

•IMF hails downward trajectory, predicts lower cost of living for Nigerian households

James Emejo in Abuja and Nume Ekeghe in Lagos

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of change in prices of goods and commodities, increased to 15.5 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, compared to 17.33 per cent in the preceding month, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said yesterday.

According to the CPI report for the period under review, month-on-month, headline inflation stood at 0.54 per cent, compared to 1.22 per cent in November.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) welcomed the continued deceleration in inflation, stating that the trend points to easing inflation and potential relief for households grappling with rising costs.

IMF also welcomed the NBS’ adoption of international best practices in calculating the CPI, saying it enhances the credibility and comparability of Nigeria’s inflation data.

In a statement, IMF said, “We welcome the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability.

“The release reflects a welcome change in methodology that aligns Nigeria’s CPI calculation with international best practices, as set out by ECOWAS and the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual.

“Under the new methodology, the NBS links the old CPI to the rebased and reweighted index using the full year of 2024 as the reference period, making the data more stable and comparable over time.

“This change leads to a revision of the 2025 inflation numbers but continues to show a trend of inflation coming down throughout the year.”

According to the CPI, food inflation stood at 10.84 per cent year-on-year in December, compared to 39.84 per cent in December 2024, while month-on-month, the food index declined to -0.36 per cent, compared to 1.13 per cent in November.

The decline in food inflation was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, and onions, among others.

The “All items less farm produce and energy” or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 18.63 per cent, year-on-year in December, compared to 29.28 per cent in December 2024.

Month-on-month, the core index was 0.58 per cent compared to 1.28 per cent in the preceding month.

Year-on-year, urban inflation stood at 14.85 per cent in December, from 37.29 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, inflation rate rose to 0.99 per cent, from 0.95 per cent in November.

Rural inflation stood at 14.56 per cent, year-on-year in the review period, from 32.47 per cent in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the rural index declined to -0.55 per cent, compared to 1.88 per cent in November 2025.

NBS explained that the “December 2025 year-on-year Headline inflation rate, including all other sub-indexes were obtained through maximisation of the index reference period, that is, using a 12-month index reference period where the average CPI for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100.

“This is a departure from the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100, which would have produced an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.

“This artificial spike is induced by the base effect, which is methodological, not structural, resulting in a rate that is not in tandem with current inflationary realities; hence the need to resort to the 12-month index reference period, by equating the entire 2024 to 100. This definitely affects the raising factor used for the re-referencing of the 2024 CPI series and the already released year-on-year inflation rates for January to November 2025.”

The NBS further stated, “This process is in line with International Best Practice as contained in the Consumer Price Index International Monetary Fund (IMF) Manual, specifically in Section 9.125 and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, which address index reference period maximisation, following a rebasing exercise.”

At states level, headline inflation, year-on-year, was highest in Abia (19.03 per cent), Ogun (18.80 per cent), and Katsina (18.66 per cent), while Sokoto (8.61 per cent), Plateau (9.05 per cent), and Kaduna (10.38 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in prices in December.

Month-on-month, however, the highest price increases were recorded in Cross River (3.11 per cent), Abia (2.63 per cent), and Delta (2.53 per cent), while Ondo (-3.74 per cent), Gombe (-3.02 per cent), and Jigawa (-1.96 per cent) recorded a decline in inflation in December.

Under the review period, food inflation, year-on-year was highest in Yobe (15.25 per cent), Ogun (14.12 per cent), and Abuja (13.24 per cent), while Akwa Ibom (4.34 per cent), Sokoto (4.62 per cent), and Plateau (6.19 per cent) recorded the slowest rise.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Imo (3.19 per cent), Nasarawa (3.16 per cent), and Yobe (1.18 per cent), while Plateau (-2.76 per cent), Rivers (-2.50 per cent), and Zamfara (-1.93 per cent) recorded a decline in food prices.