Defections, factions, fragile alliances that defined opposition’s 2025

For Nigeria’s opposition parties, 2025 is likely to be remembered as a year of unravelling that was marked by high-profile defections, paralysing internal crises and an uneasy search for relevance as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) consolidates power ahead of 2027.

From the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and even smaller platforms such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the opposition landscape has been defined less by coordinated resistance and more by fragmentation.

Factions, court battles and defections — largely to the APC — have weakened party structures and eroded public confidence, leaving the opposition scrambling for survival barely two years to the next general election.

Against this backdrop, the emergence of a broad opposition coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in July injected a measure of anticipation into an otherwise bleak season, even as scepticism persists about its durability.

Coalition gambit amid opposition fatigue

Since losing the 2023 presidential election to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has consistently argued that only a united opposition front can dislodge the APC. That argument gained traction as the PDP’s internal crisis deepened, making it increasingly difficult for the party to function as a credible rallying platform.

Early in 2025, Atiku intensified calls for a broad coalition, framing it as the opposition’s last realistic option. By July, those efforts culminated in the formal adoption of the ADC as the coalition’s platform.

The alliance brings together an array of political heavyweights, including Atiku; the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi; former governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Rauf Aregbesola (Osun) and Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna); as well as former Senate President David Mark and ex-Sokoto State governor, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, among others.

At its formal unveiling in Abuja, former Senate President David Mark was named interim national chairman, with Aregbesola appointed interim national secretary. Their appointments were subsequently ratified by the party’s National Executive Council.

Mark said the coalition was driven by the need to halt what he described as Nigeria’s “authoritarian drift”, accusing the Tinubu administration of weakening democratic institutions and nudging the country towards a one-party state. He warned that democracy and national unity were under threat and urged Nigerians across social divides to join the movement.

Despite early disputes with some longstanding ADC members, coalition leaders insist the platform offers the opposition a fresh start as preparations for the 2027 elections quietly begin. However, Peter Obi’s continued hesitation to formally join the ADC amid his own ambition to be on the presidential ballot in 2027 has emerged as a major fault line within the coalition. Atiku Abubakar’s ambition, likewise, remains central to the coalition’s capacity to stay united, with many observers arguing that how both men manage their presidential aspirations may ultimately determine the coalition’s cohesion ahead of 2027.

PDP: From dominance to disarray

No party better illustrates the opposition’s decline than the PDP. Once Nigeria’s dominant political force, the party that ruled for 16 years is now battling for relevance and cohesion. In 2025, it suffered its deepest ignominy yet, increasingly resembling a political marketplace where both the ruling APC and the emerging opposition coalition freely shopped for defectors.

A former national chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor, once boasted that the PDP would rule Nigeria for 60 years. Today, the party is struggling to retain just four governors, having lost seven within the year 2025.

Political analysts largely trace the party’s crisis to the fallout from the 2023 elections, particularly the failure to respect zoning arrangements for the presidential ticket. After eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many expected the PDP to field a southern candidate. Instead, a committee led by then Benue State governor Samuel Ortom declared the ticket open, setting off a bruising contest between Atiku Abubakar and then Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike.

Wike’s loss of the ticket and Atiku’s refusal to pick him as running mate fractured the party, triggering defections, parallel structures and enduring hostility that successive reconciliation efforts have failed to resolve.

Comrade Ini Ememobong, the PDP’s national publicity secretary, told Daily Trust that while the party acknowledges past mistakes, the new leadership is focused on rebuilding.

“We are not an excuse-making National Working Committee. We are a solution-providing leadership,” he said, adding that the PDP is determined to reclaim its role as the main opposition party, even as that position is increasingly contested by the ADC-led coalition.

The PDP’s instability has fuelled a wave of defections. Governors Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Kefas Agbu (Taraba), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau) and Ademola Adeleke (Osun) have all left the party.

While Adeleke joined the Accord Party, the others defected to the APC, stoking fears of a creeping one-party state. Most of the defectors are first-term governors seeking re-election, and insiders say concerns over the PDP’s internal divisions weighed heavily on their decisions.

A PDP chieftain, who spoke on condition of anonymity, suggested that some defectors could return after securing second terms. “For many of them, it is a marriage of convenience,” he said. “The President wants a second term; the governors want theirs.”

Labour Party: Promise squandered by infighting

The Labour Party, which surged into national prominence on the back of Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential run, also endured a turbulent 2025.

What began as a grassroots-driven movement quickly descended into factional warfare, with rival national executives, protracted court cases and disputes over party ownership paralysing decision-making. The crisis weakened the LP’s legislative caucus, dampened its youth-driven momentum and made it difficult to translate its 2023 electoral goodwill into durable party structures.

Several elected officials quietly drifted away, while others openly aligned with the ADC coalition, reinforcing perceptions that the LP, on its own, lacks the organisational depth to sustain a national challenge.

NNPP: Kwankwaso’s dilemma deepens

The NNPP, anchored largely around the influence of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, fared little better. After its strong showing in Kano in 2023, internal disagreements over party leadership, strategy and external alliances took centre stage in 2025.

The party struggled to expand beyond its regional strongholds, while defections and quiet negotiations with both the APC and the ADC coalition exposed uncertainty about its long-term direction. Kwankwaso’s political calculations, whether to retain control of the NNPP or align with a broader opposition front, have left the party in limbo.

The SDP, once seen by some as a potential alternative platform for disaffected politicians, remained on the fringes in 2025. Leadership disputes, limited grassroots presence and the absence of a clear national figurehead curtailed its ability to capitalise on opposition discontent.

While the party attracted intermittent interest from political actors shopping for platforms, it failed to convert that attention into sustained growth.

ADC and the faint promise of 2026

As 2026 approaches, the ADC-led coalition stands out as the opposition’s most coherent albeit fragile experiment. Its appeal lies less in ideology than in arithmetic: a belief that only a pooled network of structures, resources and political figures can counter the APC’s dominance.

Sceptics point to the coalition’s diverse personalities, overlapping ambitions and unresolved internal tensions as warning signs. Supporters, however, argue that even a flawed unity is preferable to the fragmented opposition that defined 2025.

Whether the ADC can move beyond symbolism to build discipline, manage egos and present a credible alternative remains the central question. For now, it represents a faint but notable glimmer of hope, a last roll of the dice for an opposition battered by defections, weakened by factionalism and running out of time ahead of 2027.

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