Tinubu, Insecurity and Resilience

Magnus Onyibe

A whopping one hundred billion (N100 billlion) naira has just been approved by National Council of state for the provision of training facilities for the police and other security agencies, just as the minister of defense, Mohamed Badaru Abubakar has just been relieved of his job and replaced with Gen, Christopher Gwabim Musa the erstwhile Chief of defense staff who had also been relieved of the job barely six (6) weeks ago.

It will be remiss of me not to mention the presidential derective for the recall of police men /women deployed to VIP services and the authorization by President to recruit  30,000 into the police and 20,000 into the military which is short of the 100, 000 that l had recommended in an intervention in this column, published last September titled “The Politics of State Police”, where l noted that:

“Although the police are constitutionally mandated to maintain law and order, the scale of terrorism has forced the military to step in. Still, as many of us have long argued, Nigeria’s centralized police structure is inadequate for a country growing as rapidly as ours. Nigeria’s population has ballooned from roughly 40 million at independence in 1960 to around 240 million today—a 415% increase. Yet, police recruitment has not kept pace. The Nigerian Police Force currently has only about 300,000–400,000 personnel, far below the estimated 1 million officers required.

Clearly, Nigeria needs a more decentralized and agile police force. This justifies Tinubu’s latest move, effectively throwing the ball into the governors’ court. They must now decide whether to decentralize policing and assume responsibility as chief security officers of their states or to maintain the status quo where state police commands answer only to the Inspector General of Police in Abuja.

Since 2002, I have consistently underscored the importance of effective policing as a precondition for Nigeria’s social, political, and economic development. My advocacy predates Tinubu’s administration and can not be dismissed as blind loyalty.”

To the relief of Nigerians, despite being somewhat belated, probably due to paucity of funds having inherited a broke government compelling him to prioritize pulling the economy back from the brink, there have been more far-reaching changes aimed at checkmating insecurity by President Tinubu.

These are: The discussion in plenary and movement of the bill to the next stage by the Nigerian senate classifying kidnapping, which has become rampant in our country as an act of terrorism punishable by death. The Senate President Godswill Akpabio drove the initiative. He read the main proposal saying “I bid for an Act to amend the Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act to designate kidnapping, hostage-taking, and related offenses as acts of terrorism to prescribe the death penalty for such offenses without the option of fine or alternative sentences, and for related matters”.

It is quite welcoming that after three decades of opposing state police, former Inspector-General of Police Sunday Ehindero now says he supports it—his change of heart driven by new safeguards that limit potential abuse by state governors. His reversal is not only significant but commendable, reflecting a continued commitment to national security long after leaving office.

Ehindero’s endorsement comes at a time when both federal and state governments are aligned on the urgent need to overhaul Nigeria’s internal security architecture. With rising insecurity across the country, the argument for returning the police to their constitutionally assigned role has never been stronger. What remains is for the National Assembly to amend relevant sections of the constitution and formally establish state police, which many states have already adopted informally through vigilante outfits.

As conventional wisdom goes: Security is everybody’s business. So, as part of my continued engagement on security reforms, I invite readers to revisit an earlier article of mine—“Police as the X-Factor in Nigeria’s Fight Against Insecurity”—which highlights why decentralizing the police is not just desirable but necessary. An excerpt is presented below:

Police as X-Factor in Nigeria’s Fight Against Insecurity

First published February 27, 2024

The question on the minds of many Nigerians today is whether the long-delayed decentralization of the police force is finally underway. With insecurity escalating nationwide, both federal and state authorities are yielding to calls for a policing structure that is more responsive, community-based, and adequately funded.

A PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report shows that Nigeria spent N14.8 trillion on security in the past nine years. Yet insecurity persists. The bulk of this spending goes to the military, even though the police—not the armed forces—are constitutionally responsible for internal security. This misalignment has left communities exposed, and criminals emboldened.

Recent weeks have seen cases of mass kidnappings, including the abduction of NYSC members in Zamfara, killings in Abuja, and the discovery of decomposing bodies in Imo State. Bandits have attacked military estates, abducted traditional rulers, and forced citizens to adopt bizarre survival tactics—including traveling disguised as corpses in ambulances to avoid being kidnapped

Forest zones like Sambisa and others across the country remain strongholds for armed groups, making farming and rural life increasingly dangerous.

These grim realities reinforce the need to decentralize policing. The idea is not new. Successive administrations—from Obasanjo to Yar’Adua and Jonathan—considered state police, and as far back as 1999, the federal government was already reviewing constitutional options. What is new, however, is the bipartisan urgency that now surrounds the issue.

On February 15, President Tinubu and the 36 state governors agreed to move forward with the creation of state police. This aligns with my earlier argument in January that decentralization is the most effective and immediate way to address Nigeria’s worsening security crisis.

With all tiers of government now aligned, Nigeria stands at a decisive moment. The task ahead is clear: legislate, implement, and empower a policing system that matches the scale and complexity of today’s insecurity.

Nigeria’s insecurity crisis continues to worsen, and President Bola Tinubu—though not its originator—now finds himself confronting its most violent phase. As I noted in my book Leading From The Streets, the roots of today’s turmoil run deep, shaped by decades of ethnic tension, separatism, and religious extremism.

Disappointingly, nearly two years after that assessment that l made in the republished article, little has improved. Instead, violent crimes, mass kidnappings, and terrorist attacks have escalated, pushing the president to adopt a more aggressive posture. Tinubu has recently gone “guns blazing,” to borrow former U.S. President Donald Trump’s phrase, in an attempt to stabilize the country. This comes against a backdrop of renewed U.S. concern, with Trump once again designating Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern.”

Recognizing the gravity of the moment, the administration has rolled out major reforms: recalling over 12,500 police officers from VIP duties, authorizing the recruitment of 50,000 new security personnel, and backing proposed legislation to classify kidnapping and hostage-taking as terrorism punishable by death. The National Assembly has equally intensified debates on more measures to confront the marauders devastating communities across the North and Middle Belt.

Yet meaningful progress will depend on one crucial factor: rebuilding the morale and capacity of the police. Poor remuneration, obsolete equipment, and years of neglect have crippled the force. As history shows—from Obasanjo to Buhari—incremental salary adjustments – have failed to address the problem. A sustainable, inflation-indexed salary structure, alongside a security trust-fund model like Lagos’s LCSSC, may offer a more realistic path forward.

Beyond funding, the government must also refine its classification of the threat landscape. Nigeria now faces three broad categories of Boko Haram: religious, political, and increasingly criminal elements—such as those behind the Yobe and Niger State abductions—who hide under extremist labels to pursue profit. Then there is the strain that kidnapped the Chibok girls in 2017 whose modus operandi resembles the sect that struck in Niger state and some of their victims are still in their custody. Thankfully,  100 of the Niger state school girls abducted about a month ago have regained freedom.

A situation whereby schools are shut down in the kidnap-prone zones in the middle belt and north-east Nigeria to keep our children away from the outlaws, is unacceptable because the terrorists and bandits would have had their way stymying Western education. Incidentally,  the name Boko translated in the Hausa language means Western education is a taboo.

With schools shut down the mission of the anti-social elements that are waging war against the state of Nigeria would have been accomplished.

Despite the worsening violence about a fortnight ago, (now ebbing) Tinubu has shown unusual resilience. He has neither deflected responsibility nor slowed momentum. Although, stability has not been achieved, attacks have begun to ebb in some areas and new security partnerships with the U.S. and France signal a shift toward more coordinated counter-terrorism efforts.

While critics continue to question his preparedness and political will, it is clear that Tinubu has moved national security from the margins to the center of governance. If these reforms materialize and sabotage is contained, Nigeria may finally regain ground against those who have kept it under siege.