War in The Middle East, Uncertainty in The World

Reuben Abati

REUBEN ABATI

On Saturday morning, February 28, the world woke up to learn of “Operation Roaring Lion” by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and “Operation Epic Fury” by the American military forces -a joint operation against the state of Iran that has turned out to be the most aggressive military operation, and deployment of sophisticated military arsenal since World War II. It was not as shocking as it turned out to be, given the fact that the allies – the US and Israel – had never at any time ruled out the possibility of military conflict. Rather, the stealth, opportunistic character and the surprise element of the invasion exposed the hypocrisy of the imagined promise that the parties involved were indeed moving towards a deal, advertised after meetings in Geneva and Oman. Last week, the negotiators rose with the promise that a technical review meeting will be held on Monday, March 2, and said “significant progress” had been made. The Israelis and the Americans did not wait for Monday to come. They struck. They attacked Iran with missiles, bombs, drones, fighter jets and the most sophisticated weaponry in contemporary times. More than 72 hours later, where do things stand? What is the global response? What is the effect on the world? What comes next?   What is going to happen in Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? Can the world contain the Middle East or are we watching the early moments of a conflagration which has been described as World War III? It seems to me that these issues can be discussed under the outlines of nuclear pretext, legal justification, leadership death, regional escalation, the possible role of the United Nations, how other countries are affected and the implications for what is meant to be a rules-based international order.

Before our very eyes, the Middle East has just become the most dangerous flashpoint in the world because it connects all the notorious problems that we have to grapple with: energy security, religion, sovereignty, international human rights law, and great power competition for dominance. The excuse given by both Israel and the United States is that Iran is a rogue state, of “hard, terrible people” as Trump says, who must never be allowed to develop nuclear capabilities. Iran is considered the leading country in the axis of evil, which under the Islamic rule, after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, has consistently posed a threat to Israel, which the Iranians seek to destroy, espoused through such statements as “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”.  Israel insists that it must survive, and the Islamic state of Iran leading an assault through its proxies – the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Syria and Yemen must be stopped. The hostility is mutual.

The United States, even before Trump, had insisted that Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear powers – a reflection of the changing dynamics of international relations. Iran used to be a darling of the United States before the 1979 Revolution. Under the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970. But with the collapse of that dynasty, the new Islamic leaders of Iran embarked on the acquisition of the technology. In 1979, the United States and its allies determined that Iran could not be allowed to become a nuclear power. Iran insisted that its nuclear programme was for civilian and medical purposes. What followed was the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States after a group of radical   Iranian students attacked the US Embassy in Tehran and captured hostages. The sanctions were re-imposed in 1987, and further expanded in 1995. The US did not give up on its advocacy that Iran was not good enough for nuclear power.  In July 2006, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1636 which reaffirmed the provisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970) and the findings of the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran had refused to clarify its intentions.  Iran, at the time under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President refused. In December 2006, the Security Council imposed more sanctions on Iran – Resolution 1737. Others followed – Resolutions 1747 in 2007 and 1929 in 2010, all targeted at halting Iran’s Uranium enrichment programme, with a plan to cripple the country, with grave consequences for its people and the economy. Following negotiations, and Iran’s agreement to limit its uranium enrichment programme, the Permanent 5+1 and the European Union reached an Iran Nuclear Deal programme, monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) and known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), dated July 14 2015.  The United States under President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed fresh economic sanctions. Iran also withdrew in retaliation, turned its back on the IAEA, and set fire to the US flag at Iran’s parliament. By 2025, relations between both countries deteriorated even much further.  In June 2025, Israel attacked Iran, with American support, in what is now known as the 12-day war when they bombed Iranian nuclear sites – in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

In one sentence, there has been no love lost between the US, Israel and Iran since the Iranian Revolution, but the nuclear pretext also raises a moral question: why should Iran not have a nuclear programme which other countries have?   Why should the United States dictate what options are best suited for other countries whereas Article 2 of the United Nations Charter is clear about the sovereign equality of all states? It is hard to accept that the current belligerence by the US and Israel is the long-standing nuclear subject.  The more substantive issue is Trump’s megalomania and overreach. This is the second time in one month that he has removed the leaders of a sovereign country – Venezuela and now Iran, and he is busy threatening Cuba.  His justification is vague and controversial. Just recently, he gave a State of the Union address at the US Congress, for 1 hour 47 minutes but he told no one about his intention to wage war against Iran. He spoke about Iran for only three minutes! US law requires Trump to seek Congressional approval, but again just as he treated the Supreme Court with contempt, he has again violated the Congress which he regards as redundant. Operation Epic Fury is therefore a one-man show, an illegal violation of US law by a full-blown dictator who has usurped the powers of both the judiciary and the legislature of the United States.

Trump has also re-written the rule book in international law, turning might into right and the dubious entitlement of power. He did not bother to notify the United Nations. He has simply imposed a global climate of uncertainty which will affect global trade, co-operation and stability. In the execution of his Operation Epic Fury, he has ignored the international system. America has not only decapitated Iranian leadership – 48 Iranian military, political and security leaders killed in one day, unarmed civilians, and school children were not spared either and Trump does not care. By that America has been turned into a thug nation, and yet this is the same country whose traditional foreign policy process was based on the promotion of peace, justice, and human rights. President Trump has simply changed all that in the pursuit of his “America First agenda”. What could be his real strategic interest? Personal ego, and the same is true for Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Both leaders have political problems at home, with loss of popularity in the polls at a time both face critical elections- the 2026 legislative election in Israel (October 2026) and the midterm elections in the US (November 2026), which would be a referendum in real terms. The other strategic reason for the US is the desperate search for energy dominance and the toxic competition with China. Whoever controls energy controls the world. Be it in Venezuela, Greenland or Iran, we see Trump’s obsession with China playing out. China is a major oil partner with Venezuela. Trump has blocked that and seized control.  China buys oil from Iran. Blocked. Trump wants Greenland, by all means, if possible, for national security reasons, to stop China and Russia’s influence in that Arctic region.  The predicted “Coming Conflict with China” is now as real – a clash of the hegemons- as predicted in a 1997 book of the same title by Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro.

It is the world that suffers in consequence. The United Nations has been reduced to a paper tiger. The world faces a certain recession, the end of which no one knows. Is this the end or the brutalization of diplomacy? With the shut-down of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, the most important choke-point for global trade, which handles about 14.5 million barrels of crude oil transportation daily, about 20% of global oil supply, three quarters of that going to China, India, Japan and South Korea, the whole world is in a bind.  Over 150 oil vessels are stranded at the mouth of the Strait. Global energy markets have been destabilized, driving up the cost of benchmark crude Brent and the US WTI by over 10% at a point, pared down later to about 8% over the weekend.  Some experts project that the spot price of oil could reach as high as $100 per barrel depending on how much longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, despite the attempt by the V8 group in OPEC+ to adjust production quota to 206, 000 barrels per day to drive down prices. The whole of the Middle East has been drawn into the conflict. Air travel across the Middle East has been shut down. Beyond its direct retaliation against the enemies, Iran has specifically targeted US military bases in the Gulf States, and taken the war to US allies in the region – drawing in Qatar, Oman, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Yemen. Iranian missiles have rained down on not just Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh in Israel, but also the international airports in Dubai and Kuwait and close to the famous Burj Khalifa in Dubai.  Travel markets are down, defence stocks are up, airline stocks are losing, precious metals -gold and silver – have risen around 2% as investors are flocking to safe havens. In the face of the spreading uncertainty, companies cannot plan, countries are worried, and there have been fears about a World War III with the world now divided between a group led by the United States, Israel and their allies and another group led by Iran, Russia, China, North Korea and their allies.

It is unclear when this nightmare will end. It is easier to know when a war begins, not when it will end. President Trump has said this will last for about four weeks, and that the Iranians are now willing to reach a deal. Ali Larijani, Iranian Security Chief, has made it clear that Iran does not plan to sit at a negotiating table with the United States. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed that they will fight on “until the enemy is decisively defeated.” Gun to gun, missile to missile, drone to drone, Iran may not be able to sustain a prolonged war, and may be that is Trump what is banking upon, but history teaches us that smaller nations can stand up to stronger military forces as in the examples of Vietnam against France, the United States and China; Afghanistan against the USSR and the US; Ethiopia vs. Italy; Greece vs. Italy; and Finland against the USSR.  Trump is threatening to avenge the killing of American servicemen. More may still die in the theatre of war, provoking negative reactions across the US. Other countries of the world, including Nigeria, have an obligation to protect themselves.  Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel advisory to Nigerians in the affected countries. The newly appointed Inspector General of Police has placed his men on alert, especially now that some pro-Iranian, Shi’a Muslims in Nigeria are expressing open support for Iran. Even Sheik Ahmad Gumi, a Sunni cleric and Muslim scholar, has been quoted as saying Ayatollah Khamenei is “a hero of the Jihad.” Other Nigerians are more interested in the fact that the spot price of crude oil would go up significantly, resulting in a 1970s-like energy shock, almost jubilating in a global crisis that may end up worsening their lives, if the country fails to plan ahead. Nigerian Muslims who were protesting that the 2027 initial election time table should be reminded of the irony that whereas they claim they cannot vote during Ramadan, one of the world’s most intense wars is currently being fought by Muslims in the Middle East in the month of Ramadan!