‘Fare Thee Well’, Mr “Zero Oil Plan”

Featuring this 2016 interview of Olusegun Omotunde Awolowo, who was born on September 27, 1963 and joined the Saints triumphant on Thursday, November 20, 2025 at the age of 62, serves as a Tribute to him, in recognition of his service to Nigeria. This interview conducted by Jude Igbanoi, Tobi Soniyi and my humble self, Onikepo Braithwaite, was the fourth interview that I took part in conducting, in the early days of my career as Editor of This Day Lawyer (to be precise, a month after I took up the position). At the time, Segun was the CEO of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC). Nigeria’s over-dependence on crude oil as its major export product became a serious topic for discussion back then (and it still remains so), particularly as the country’s economy was in a recession. Segun recognised the huge potential in non-oil exports, seeing as Nigeria is a country that is richly endowed with a variety of resources which, to date, have remained largely under-explored and under-utilised. He envisioned a Nigeria, raking in billions of Dollars in revenue, from non-oil manufacturing and exports. He saw that countries such as China, had become world manufacturers, increasing their volumes and number products for export. Segun explained his strategy, to ensure that what was coined NEPC’s “Zero Oil Plan”, one which included every State of Nigeria being expected to identify at least one strategic export product it is endowed with, based on comparative advantage, and export same to the world, thereby earning much needed revenue/foreign exchange for the country, creating employment and stimulating economic growth. Segun’s views are as relevant today, as they were in 2016, seeing as there is no time better than now for Nigeria to diversify her economy, and buckle down to the serious implementation of the Zero Oil Plan

You are a Lawyer by profession. Have you ever engaged in the practice of law? Has your being a Lawyer been of any advantage to you in your role as CEO of NEPC?

Yes, I began my professional career in law. Prior to joining the Council in 2013, I held various positions both in and out of the Nigerian Public Sector. I was called to the Nigerian Bar in December of 1989, and began my legal career by working with Abayomi Sogbesan & Co. SAN, and GOK Ajayi & Co. SAN. I then had the opportunity to serve in various positions in President Olusegun Obasanjo’s Administration, first as Special Assistant on Traditional Institutions, then Legal Due Diligence and Legal Matters, during which I covered a wide range of legal issues for Mr President. I also served as Secretary for Social Development, and later, Transport and Area Councils in the FCT.

I knew from the start that, the foundation of the Council was important. I abide from this quote from Robert Hienlein, “In the absence of clearly defined goals, we become strangely loyal to performing daily trivia until ultimately, we become enslaved by it”. I embarked on getting a strategic vision for the Council, that was clearly articulated and understood by all relevant stakeholders. My goal is to transform the NEPC into a fully functioning export promotion agency, in tune with best practices obtained all over the world. NEPC must be highly client-centric.

Do you believe that the sale of Nigeria’s national assets is the only way that the country can raise funds and increase its foreign reserves?

No, I do not believe that the sale of Nigeria’s national assets, is the only way the country can raise funds. So far, the country has been very proactive in decreasing our demand for foreign exchange. The Central Bank has taken critical actions, to ensure foreign exchange is only used for legitimate transactions and tightened our interest rates. The currency adjustment of the Naira has also helped decrease our demand for forex, but we must also address the supply of foreign exchange.

There are numerous ways Nigeria can increase its foreign reserves, from attracting additional foreign direct investment (FDI) to portfolio investments. The most transformative and sustainable way however, is by increasing our exports. This is the model adopted by a number of other countries, from Brazil and China to Germany and the USA. We already know that, the world wants the goods and services Nigeria has to offer. It is up to us to scale up our productive capacity, and sell ourselves to the world.

In 1980, Nigeria and China accounted for about 1% each of global exports. In 2011, while China accounted for about 11% of global exports, Nigeria’s share had dwindled to about 0.4%? Why?

It’s true that China and Nigeria both accounted for about 1% of global exports in 1980, while today China accounts for 11% and Nigeria less than .5%. This is because, while China became the world’s factory over the last 30 years, diversifying its export base from textiles and agricultural goods to high-end technical machinery, Nigeria continued it’s over dependence on crude oil. China, and many other countries, long realised that, the way to prosperity was through exports. It is no secret that the world’s wealthiest countries, are also the largest exporters. Even other oil producing countries such as Mexico have a much larger share of global exports, because they have diversified their export base away from oil. Mexico is now the largest exporter of numerous agricultural products, and the country earns almost US$400 billion annually in non-oil exports. In Nigeria’s case, we focused solely on oil at the expense of other sectors with high export potentials such as solid minerals, ICT and agriculture.

NEPC has a Zero-Oil Plan for Nigeria. We understand that the programme is fashioned to boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange supply, grow the economy, reduce unemployment and consequently, reduce poverty. This is extremely timely, especially as Nigeria is presently facing a huge economic crisis. Could you explain the plan to us. Where do you see Nigeria in the next three years, if the Zero-Oil Plan is implemented? Have any other countries adopted this type of plan? What kind of success was recorded, if any?

The “Zero Oil” plan is Nigeria’s first attempt at a coherent agenda, to mobilise public and private resources towards replacing oil as our number one source of foreign exchange. This will require us to reconstruct now defunct supply chains within the country, and will involve initiatives to increase production capacity, access new markets, create and rebuild economic linkages, as well as strong coordination between the public and private sector.

The plan is divided into 3 waves, for our different categories of priority export products (Category A and Category B products). Although work begins on all sectors immediately, some sectors have a shorter time horizon than others, and the country can reach our export targets in a number of products within wave one.

For example under the “Zero Oil” plan, within three years, Nigeria should be able to earn US$5 billion from exporting soybeans and meal, US$1 billion from hides and leather, and over US$250 million from cashew.

The “Zero Oil” plan, lays out the roadmap to a Nigerian economy that does not depend on a single drop of oil exports. It sets a long-term goal of earning 20% of Nigeria’s GDP (that is, US$100 billion) from non-oil exports. The initial target, is first to exceed US$30 billion annually in non-oil exports over the next 10 years (from US$5 billion today). The plan is expected to have the following key impacts – first, to add over US$150 billion cumulatively to national foreign reserves over its first 10 years; second, to create 500,000 new export driven jobs annually; and third, to lift at least 10 million people out of poverty in the next 10 years.

The “Zero Oil” plan is designed using six (6) pillars to guide its implementation. They are: (i) Export Sectors – which prioritises key products for exports (ii) Export Markets – opening new markets abroad for Nigerian goods (iii) Export Sourcing – for us to scale up local production like never before, and meet our supply requirements (iv) Finance and Incentives – to mobilise capital and other fiscal instruments for exports (v) States and Zones – to align State government policies with Federal plans (vi) Organisation and Institutions – for programme governance.

A number of specific products are expected to contribute the most to the US$30 billion non-oil export target, these are: Petrochemicals and Methanol, Nitrogenous fertiliser, Soybeans, Palm oil, Cotton and Yarn, Cocoa, Leather, Rubber products, Rice and Gold. A number of lower value export products will also be encouraged, such as cashew, cement, tomatoes and others. To achieve this, Nigeria needs to produce and send more than 70 million tons of cargo into foreign markets, which is a major logistical feat. The plan is also not just for big business, as it strives to develop the entire export supply chain – including MSMEs, women owed businesses, and the youth, from every State in the Federation.

Nigeria is not the only country, to adopt such a bold and ambitious strategy. Exports have been used to revolutionise economies, all over the world. The economic miracle seen in East Asia, has been categorised by many as an “export revolution”. Countries that have faced Nigeria’s challenges, have addressed them by diversifying and growing their export basket. Exports account for 25% of the world’s GDP, 24% of Chinese, 24% of India’s GDP and 74% of Malaysia’s. In Nigeria exports have typically accounted for 18% of our GDP, but after removing contributions from crude oil earnings, exports account for only 1% of GDP. Nigeria must therefore, do what the Chinese, Indians and Brazilians have done, and rapidly expand the products we export, other than oil. Many oil-exporting countries have recently introduced national plans to stop over-dependence on oil, most recently Saudi Arabia. The “Zero Oil” plan articulates Nigeria’s commitment to export diversification.

Is the Zero-Oil Plan connected to the one State one Export programme that you spoke about at the 2015 Nigeria Economic Summit Group Seminar? Has any of the States started to export any products?

The One State One Product (OSOP) initiative, is an essential part of the “Zero Oil” plan. The idea is to have all the States of the Federation identify at least one strategic export product based on their comparative advantage, from which Nigeria can earn foreign exchange. It’s important to note though, that States are not limited to choosing only one item. For example, Enugu continues to successfully export pineapples into the European market, despite choosing other products for OSOP. Nigeria is a very blessed country, and we want to encourage State governments to ramp up production, so we can meet export targets in areas where the States are naturally endowed. Sometimes this means States working together, which is something we highlight during advocacy visits.

For example in the Northwest, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, and Katsina have realised the potential of revamping their cotton industries. By working together, these States have the potential to earn US$ 2–2.5 billion annually from cotton and yarn exports, by cultivating 2-3million hectares of land and bettering their yields. We would like to see this type of synergy and collaboration, replicated throughout the country.

In the Northeast, leather can be a major export driver. Leather has the potential to earn US$500-US$750 million annually, from cow, sheep and goat hide, all of which Nigeria already has in abundance.

In the North Central zone, Nigeria has the potential to earn US$4-5 billion annually by increasing our production of soya beans, meal and oil. We need approximately 5 to 6 million hectares of land cultivated for soya with necessary investments in milling and oil production as well.

In the Southwest, cocoa remains incredibly valuable, as it has been historically. With the right associated investment, Nigeria can move away from exporting the raw product and begin producing cocoa powder, butter and liquor. We have the ability to earn US$2-2.5 billion annually from cocoa and its derivatives.

In the Southeast, there is potential in gold. With one world-class gold mine, Nigeria can produce 1 million ounces of gold each year, earning US$1 billion annually.

Finally, in the South South, there is abundant potential in petrochemicals. Annually, the petrochemical industry is worth over US$150 billion internationally, and Nigeria, an oil producing nation, is missing from this. With at least 5 world-class petrochemical complexes in the South South region, Nigeria has the potential to earn US$4-5 billion annually.

Of recent, so much attention is now being focused on Made in Nigeria goods. Indeed, the ‘Buy Nigerian’ campaign has already started yielding some positive results. What is the road map for the NEPC to take this initiative beyond the shores of Nigeria?

Our vision at NEPC, is to make the world a marketplace for Nigerian non-oil goods. We want to show the world the best of what Nigeria has to offer, and this starts with getting all Nigerians involved, no matter where in the world they are. The World Bank estimates that, there are over 15 million Nigerians resident outside the country. The diaspora is our first contact in most international markets, as they’re often the ones who buy Nigerian products. The Nigeria Diaspora Export Programme (NDEX) is the Council’s key initiative meant to leverage on this opportunity through commercial and cultural promotion, as well as social development of all things Nigerian. A key component of NDEX is the Nigerian Heritage City (NHC), a business and cultural enclave akin to Chinatown. We want to establish a carefully crafted setting abroad where we can project national cultural values in a positive light, and providing an avenue where people can experience Nigerian goods and services. Another component of NDEX is the Nigerian Cuisine Beyond Borders (NCBB), which is the promotion of World class and internationally recognised and unified Nigerian Cuisine at restaurants located in key commercial centres around the world.

With the value of the Naira at such an all-time low, many have argued that this is actually a great opportunity for Nigerian exports. Do you share this view? If so how do you intend to cash-in on this opportunity? What opportunities do you see at this auspicious time?

Of course, I share the view that this is a great opportunity for Nigerian exports! As a matter of fact, we had prepared and anticipated for the fall in oil prices for several years now. Our supervising Ministry launched the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP) in 2014, and in 2015, NEPC prepared the Zero Oil plan, which promotes alternative sources to earn foreign revenue. Export opportunities within Nigeria abound in various sectors, but unfortunately, we’re still hindered by a myriad of issues such as limited capacity, infrastructural deficits, and quality control standards. Fortunately the current administration has identified these problems, and has put in place coherent strategies to address these shortfalls and provide a more conducive environment for businesses, which should ultimately impact on our ability to become a global player in international trade.

Now that oil prices are down globally and there is a crisis in the Niger-Delta Region, there definitely must be some pressure on the NEPC to perform at optimum level. What are your strategies for promoting non-oil exports?

While the “Zero Oil” plan is the Council’s main strategy for improving

Nigeria’s non-oil exports, the promotion and development of Nigeria’s export trade is central to the work NEPC does everyday. We are an incentive organisation so it’s important that we constantly build consensus advocate and regularly engage with potential exporters in the private sector. To do this, NEPC organises specific trainings for infant exporters through programmes such as our Export Clinic Initiative, which is targeted towards beginners, our Zero to Export programme, and the establishment of our AGOA Human Capital Development Centre in Apapa, Lagos. We also host training workshops on capacity building throughout the year, and run a Youth Empowerment Export Skills programme (YEESAP) which is targeted at encouraging young people to enter non-oil exports. Internally, the Council has a Strategic Plan that’s revamped our decision making processes, and brought them up to date. We recently concluded an Institutional and Functional Review by KPMG, that restructured the Council by making it more in line with other successful export promoting agencies internationally. For example, our Export Development and Incentives Department houses a division dedicated to SME financing. We’ve also increased collaboration with sister agencies and stakeholders needed for success in the export space. We strive to have a synergy of goals and mutual collaboration with organisations, such as NEXIM, NIPC, CBN, BOI, NIMASA, NCS, NBS, and others.

With the on-going efforts in the agro-allied sector, how soon do you see Nigeria exporting products like rice, smoked fish, shea butter, palm oil, cashew, cocoa, etc? We were shocked to discover that cocoa that used to be one of our major exports is now so low on the list, and Nigeria is still importing products like palm oil

While it is true that Nigeria does not produce nearly as much cocoa as it should and could, cocoa actually still remains the country’s largest non-oil export, but, we can do better. As already mentioned, the “Zero Oil” plan calls for Nigeria to scale up production in key priority sectors, many of which Nigeria is already exporting, but at a very low, subsistence level. We simply must increase our production capacity across several sectors, and the “Zero Oil” plan identifies the priority areas to begin with.

Both our Priority A and Priority B export sectors, are areas where Nigeria has a natural comparative advantage and is able to operate with relative ease, that is, manageable investments, a realistic level of technology needed and the complexity of the supply chain. The difference between Priority A and Priority B products, is the international market size. Priority A products are traded above US$20 billion annually, while Priority B products have smaller international value. If we begin to expand our production capacity immediately, when Nigeria can reach the Zero Oil output targets in these products depends on their natural gestational periods. For example, this means the country can meet our export targets for Priority A products such as cocoa (312,215 tons), and palm oil (3,667,259 tons) within 3-7 years, and rice (7,812,935 tons) within 7-10 years. Priority B products such as Cashew and Shea butter export targets, can be met in less than three years and 3-7 years respectively.

Beyond the desire to promote Nigerian exports, how does NEPC deal with the issue of the quality of the products that are exported?

Rigorous quality control standards, are imperative to being able to export goods abroad. Unfortunately, this is an area Nigeria struggles with, and the country still lacks an internationally recognised quality infrastructure framework that ensures the safety of our products. NEPC is however, one of the government agencies actively participating with the EU and UNIDO on the National Quality Infrastructure Project (NQIP). NQIP aims to improve the quality, safety, integrity and marketability of Nigerian goods and services, especially those produced by small and medium enterprises. Quality control capacity building programmes are held throughout Nigeria, and exporters are actively encouraged to participate.

NQIP has hosted Food Assessment Risk Trainings, Monitoring and Evaluation Workshops, Laboratory Trainings, Quality in industry and Trade workshops and Quality and Standards system improvement trainings specifically for exporters of beans and melon seed. NEPC also spearheaded the formation of a technical committee to address the recurring issue of rejection of Nigerian food items and agricultural commodities on the international market, particularly the rejection of Nigerian beans into the European Union earlier this year.

The Committee was comprised of 20 private and public sector organisation representatives such as, Customs, SON, NAFDAC, NAQS, NACCIMA and FACAN, who discovered the ban was a result of the high usage of chemicals in the preservation of dried beans products by farmers and traders in storage. The strategies and recommendations put forth by the Committee at the completion of their assessment, were later adopted at the Federal level as a national strategy.

What are the greatest challenges of being the CEO of NEPC? Are you able to overcome them? What methods do you adopt to carry out the mandate of the Council? How effective are they?

The greatest challenge I face as the CEO of NEPC is of course, the opposition to structural transformation in the reform process. But, with focus and clarity of goals, one continues to drive on. “You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks”. Winston Churchill said this, and I believe it to be true. While at NEPC, I have embarked on a holistic transformation reform process which includes implementation of 1) A strategic plan; 2) An institutional and functional review; 3) A training needs assessment followed by capacity training across staff levels, I have also developed a robust monitoring and evaluation system. I am pragmatic, about what is needed to succeed.

Attracting investors to an economy in recession must really be a daunting task, how is the NEPC weathering the storm? In the course of your work, you interact with prospective investors. What are their major concerns and considerations about the Nigerian investment climate?

Drawing investors into a slowing economy can be difficult, but internationally, the demand for Nigerian products is high, which is something any potential investor in the region needs to be aware of. NEPC works closely with our sister agency, the Nigerian Investment

Promotion Commission (NIPC) to find export oriented investors because these are the businesses which will be able to take advantage of Nigeria’s proximity to both European and ECOWAS markets.

Additionally, market research and intelligence forms the backbone of the “Zero Oil” plan. NEPC has identified specific markets for all of our priority export products. Our ‘Export 22’ countries are 22 countries found throughout the world, with not only a demonstrated need for certain Nigerian products, but with a track record and proven capacity to buy Nigerian products in large quantities. For example, we know Germany has a growing need for petrochemicals and cocoa, while South Korea is in need of leather. This information allows us to attract international investors interested in exports, by showing them the potential market for their products outside Nigeria.

Nigeria is in competition with other countries for investments. What unique advantages does Nigeria have as a country, that can give it an edge?

Nigeria is a country teeming with unique advantages, that give us an edge over many other nations. To begin with, we have a large domestic market of over 170 million educated English speakers. More importantly, we are strategically positioned within the ECOWAS region to grant access to an even larger market of 300 million people. Our population is young, which means we have a powerful workforce with over 70% of Nigerians under the age of 30; this also provides us with cheap and effective labour. Nigeria has the 7th largest gas reserves in the world, and over 90% of our large land size is arable. The country already leads the world, in the production of 7 agricultural products. We also have an abundance of raw materials, 44 Solid minerals available in commercial quantities, for example, our iron ore reserves are the 12th largest in the world. This all means that, Nigeria’s comparative advantage lies outside of oil. Most importantly, investors want to see continuation of government policy and this government, by the adoption of the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP), is demonstrating this.

Can you tell us some major achievements of the NEPC during your watch?

My goal is to develop NEPC into a fully functioning export promotion

agency that is grounded on great clarity about exporters needs, with a clear appreciation and understanding of the expectations of our target markets. To build a performance, learning and dynamic organisation that is highly client centric. The report card, cannot be written by myself.

Thank you.

Epilogue

In 2021, in recognition of his contribution to the sector, Olusegun Awolowo was unanimously elected as the President of National Trade Promotion Organisations from ECOWAS Member States, a position which he held until his death.

Olusegun: “A o pade leti odo, (Yes, we’ll gather at the river), Odo didan, Odo didan na; (The beautiful, beautiful river); Pel’awon mimo leba odo, (Gather with the saints at the river), T’o nsan leba ite na” (That flows by the throne of God).

So very much loved, but, God loves you more. Goodnight Olusegun, may the flight of angels sing thee to thy rest. Amen. Sun re (Sleep well).