FG misses Q1 2025 oil revenue target by 64.35%

By : Joesph Chibueze

Date: 23 December 2025 1:53pm WAT

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

The Federal Government has reported that it missed its first-quarter 2025 oil revenue target by N8.21 trillion, representing a shortfall of 64.35 per cent.

The government also recorded a fiscal deficit of N3.04 trillion during the period, which was N481.81 billion or 13.67 per cent below the projected quarterly fiscal deficit of N3.53 trillion.

These figures are contained in the first-quarter 2025 Budget Implementation Report released on Tuesday by the Budget Office of the Federation.

According to the report, actual gross oil revenue stood at N4.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, representing an N8.21 trillion or 64.35 per cent shortfall compared with the quarterly prorated budget estimate of N12.76 trillion.

Despite the shortfall, the performance was N1.20 trillion or 35.82 per cent higher than the N3.35 trillion gross oil revenue generated in the corresponding period of 2024.

The report showed that actual net oil revenue accruing to the Federation Account in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to N3.91 trillion, representing a decline of N6.97 trillion or 64.05 per cent from the prorated quarterly budget estimate of N10.88 trillion.

However, the inflow was N0.56 trillion or 16.71 per cent and N1.03 trillion or 35.76 per cent higher than the N3.35 trillion and N2.88 trillion net oil revenue recorded in the fourth and first quarters of 2024, respectively.

A breakdown of oil revenue performance for the quarter showed that concessional rentals of N15.07 billion, miscellaneous income including pipeline fees of N15.02 billion, and incidental oil revenue comprising royalty recovery and marginal fields of N332.92 billion exceeded their quarterly budget estimates of N1.03 billion, N5.86 billion and N295.88 billion by N14.04 billion (1,365.22 per cent), N9.16 billion (156.26 per cent) and N37.04 billion (12.52 per cent), respectively.

All other oil revenue items performed below their quarterly budget projections. Crude oil and gas sales of N438.54 billion, petroleum profit and gas taxes of N1.81 trillion, and oil and gas royalties of N1.91 trillion fell short of their quarterly estimates of N1.18 trillion, N7.85 trillion and N3.43 trillion by N739.65 billion (62.78 per cent), N6.03 trillion (76.89 per cent) and N1.52 trillion (44.19 per cent), respectively.

Gas flaring penalties and exchange gains, which had no budget projections, generated N124.87 billion and N9.57 billion, respectively, during the period under review.

The report attributed the poor net oil revenue performance in the first quarter of 2025 to lower-than-projected crude oil revenue outturn, reduced production and lifting levels, poor industry investment in recent years, as well as oil and gas deductions that exceeded prorated estimates.

The Federal Government had projected a crude oil benchmark price of $75 per barrel and a production level of 2.12 million barrels per day.

On non-oil revenue, the report stated that the Federal Government generated a gross total of N4.39 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, representing a decrease of N1.66 trillion or 27.45 per cent from the quarterly estimate of N6.05 trillion.

A breakdown of non-oil revenue showed that Value Added Tax of N2.06 trillion and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) of N84.05 billion exceeded their quarterly projections of N1.87 trillion and N57.50 billion by N188.56 billion (10.05 per cent) and N26.55 billion (46.18 per cent), respectively.

However, Company Income Tax of N1.26 trillion, Nigerian Police Trust Fund (NPTF) Levy of N0.06 billion, Customs and Excise Duties of N905.69 billion, and Special Levies of N77.66 billion fell below their quarterly estimates of N2.33 trillion, N1.25 billion, N1.55 trillion and N239.61 billion by N1.07 trillion (45.78 per cent), N1.19 billion (95.20 per cent), N643.64 billion (41.54 per cent) and N161.95 billion (67.59 per cent), respectively.

The report attributed the weak performance of some non-oil revenue sources to lower-than-projected GDP growth during the period.

Compared with the first quarter of 2024, all non-oil revenue items, except special levies, recorded improved performance. Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax, EMTL, Nigerian Police Trust Fund Levy, Customs and Excise Duties, and FGN Independent Revenue increased by N250.43 billion (24.69 per cent), N633.04 billion (44.24 per cent), N36.31 billion (76.06 per cent), N0.06 billion (100 per cent), N226.72 billion (33.39 per cent) and N319.28 billion (100 per cent), respectively.

Special levies collection of N77.66 billion was, however, N3.44 billion or 4.24 per cent below the N81.10 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

The report noted that the improved non-oil revenue performance in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 was largely due to recovering domestic economic activity following government policy measures, the extension of the implementation of the 2024 capital budget, and improved performance by revenue-generating agencies.

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