Now That Trump Has Dropped His Bombs

SIMONKOLAWOLELIVE! simon.kolawole@thisdaylive.com, sms: 0805 500 1961

BY SIMONKOLAWOLELIVE!

On Christmas Day, while men (and women) slept, President Donald Trump authorised a US military strike on suspected terrorist camps in Sokoto state, Nigeria. I woke up on Boxing Day to the news. A part of me was elated, mainly because I have always believed we should not shy away from getting help. Counterterrorism experts will tell you that the best scenario is for it not to start at all. Once it starts, you are in soup. Those who saw the beginning may not see the end. As it festers, even in fits and starts, it could take decades to defeat. It is not a riot to be quelled in a day. There is a reason the US fled Iraq and Afghanistan after losing thousands of soldiers and trillions of dollars in the war.

My bias for foreign help is not that popular: those who think in terms of sovereignty and neo-imperialism will have none of that. They see foreign help as an injury to our national pride and a dent in our independence. I fully understand their sentiments. However, we would not be discussing sovereignty if we had been able to assert it against the terrorists and insurgents over the last 16 years. It is easy to discuss sovereignty when it is not your brothers and sons that are being killed and it is not your sisters and daughters that are being raped. Those who are in the thick of the terror and horror would theorise more about survival and less about sovereignty. That’s the way life goes.

Advocates of the decolonisation of Africa — who are apparently pleased that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have exchanged their French colonial masters for Russian and Chinese overlords — are also unhappy with the US action in Nigeria. Meanwhile, there are those opposed to it because they regard America as anti-Muslim. They will naturally oppose the action even if most of the victims of terror are, evidently, Muslims. It also does not help that Trump keeps saying he was protecting Nigerian Christians — even though, for all you care, it is northern Muslims that will benefit the most if terrorism is routed in Nigeria eventually. Many in this camp are conflicted and I can understand.

And then, there are the politicians. One major weapon that was used by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to oust President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 was insecurity. The APC seemed particularly pleased with every Boko Haram attack because it helped their political fortune, and I remember Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the party’s spokesman, asking Jonathan to resign because of insecurity. Today’s opposition figures are adopting a rinse-and-repeat strategy, so if the insecurity festers, it will continue to give them the necessary ammunition for electioneering ahead of 2027. Many will be unhappy if the US intervention takes the wind out of the terrorists’ sails. It is all politics.

I thought those who campaigned vociferously and ferociously for the US to intervene in Nigeria would be over the moon after the strike. To my surprise, many of them are sounding deflated. Some are unhappy that the US struck in Sokoto instead of Benue. I can also understand. All along, the campaign was not really about fighting terrorism wherever it exists. It was rather to fuel the narrative that only Christians are being killed in Nigeria and the only thing that can satisfy this camp is for Muslims in Christian-majority communities to be identified and killed. I won’t be surprised if those in this group send a list of individuals and addresses that should be bombed to the US mission in Abuja.

There is this guy on X who posted endlessly for the US to invade Nigeria but started complaining after the strike. I was confused. You asked for it and got it, so what is there not to be happy about? It seems his thinking was that the US would come to Abuja, bomb Aso Rock and whisk away President Bola Tinubu. This was a very popular fantasy on social media. The guy was depressed when the US and Nigerian authorities announced that the operation was jointly agreed upon and that Tinubu authorised it. If you spent too much time on social media, you would have read all sorts about how Trump was planning to remove Tinubu within the twinkle of an eye and replace him with whoever.

Now that Trump has finally started dropping his bombs, another part of me is worried, even scared. And, I would say, for good reasons. One, there is high expectation in some quarters that American air strikes will end insecurity in the north. He had promised to go “guns-a-blazing” into that “now disgraced country” (this became the favourite phrase of you-know-who) to “completely wipe out the Islamic terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!” My hope is that the strikes will be far-reaching enough to cripple the terrorists, but we still need to manage our expectations.

We have to be realistic and accept that terrorists will not be completely wiped out as swiftly as Trump promised. This is not Netflix. If it was that easy, the US would have wiped out the Islamic State, Al Qaeda and the rest of them since President George W Bush launched the war on the “axis of evil” in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks. The reality is that terrorism has mutated over time. The world is still battling with it, and Africa has become the terrorist playground. The situation in Mali is pathetic as Al Qaeda keeps pounding the Sahel. And that is my second fear: that the US strikes may bring out the beasts in these guys who are never short of advancing new devilish strategies and tactics.

Terrorism thrives on its unpredictability. Terrorists live among ordinary people in many instances and this gives them the cover they need to launch attacks on soft targets. They also use ordinary people as human shield. You can hardly attack them without recording civilian casualties. Most military successes are usually against insurgents who carve out and protect territories. This allows the military to see the enemy clearly on the battle line. Unfortunately, the cost of recruitment is very low for terrorists. The more you kill them, the more they come at you. They regenerate by recruiting child soldiers — some as young as 10 years old. That is why they keep multiplying like rats and ants.

My third fear stems from the framing of the entire security crisis in northern Nigeria as “Christian persecution”. While announcing the strike, Trump said in his social media post that the “ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria… have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians”. I believe this was deliberate and designed to get the applause of his radical Christian supporters. I hope this will not put northern Christians under renewed attacks as the terrorists try to take a pound of flesh. That would just lead to another round of religious tension, the kind I have witnessed before and never wish to see again. We will be the ones to carry the can in the end. Trump will not be there.

What we are dealing with in northern Nigeria is a hydra-headed monster. You can never solve a multi-dimensional problem with linear reasoning. The insecurity up north has many faces. As I wrote in ‘Before Trump Drops His Bombs’ (THISDAY, November 9, 2025), we are dealing with insurgency, terrorism, banditry and communal clashes that are often categorised as religious war whenever the feuding parties are not of the same religion. I do not see how bombing terrorists in Sokoto will end the war between Tiv and Fulani herders in Benue. I know some people are naïve enough to think bombing “ISIS terrorist scum” in the north-west will end the rift between Berom and Fulani in Jos.

Finally, I fear that the US strikes may hit the wrong targets, leaving behind civilian casualties. If this happens, it will be milked extensively by those who are opposed to the intervention. And, for sure, you cannot rule out mistakes. Contrary to the misinformation in sections of the commentariat, the Nigerian military has actually been carrying out air strikes on bandits and terrorists for ages. They have made mistakes too. In January 2017, over 50 refugees in an IDP camp in Rahn, Borno state, were bombed in error. If the US military makes a similar mistake, there will be a heavily politicised outcry of unimaginable proportions and this may take the sting out of the operations. Just saying.

I will conclude by saying that despite my fears and reservations, I am fully in support of the US strike. For it to achieve the maximum result of crippling the terrorists, our security agencies and the government must follow through diligently. The US will carry out air operations, but it is our security forces that will do the ground battle. Bombing alone will not reduce or eliminate terrorism. We need to do our part. As per the religious angle, northern Muslims and Christians will keep bickering until they both willingly agree to accommodate each other and live in peace. You can bomb terrorists off the face of the earth but you can never bomb hate, bitterness and resentment out of people’s hearts.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

MIXED SIGNALS

On Wednesday, December 24, President Bola Tinubu inaugurated a committee on strategy, conflict resolution and mobilisation to resolve disputes within the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 general election. The committee is made up mostly of governors, but one name you would never miss is Yahaya Bello, the former governor of Kogi state who is currently standing trial over allegations of fraud running into hundreds of billions of naira. If not that our politicians are generally shameless, Bello should have cleared his name in court before he gets into this sort of assignment. To Tinubu, though, politics is the most important thing in life. Every other thing is secondary. Desgracia.

TAX MATTER

I have been following with intense interest the controversy over the tax laws which were allegedly doctored before they were signed by President Bola Tinubu. Curiously, the “original” version being circulated clearly bears the title “House of Representatives” — and this is what is being compared with the signed version. Bills are passed by both chambers and harmonised when the differences are sorted out by a joint committee. The final version sent to the president for signing does NOT bear “House of Representatives”. Ignoring the politicking around it, however, I have a strong feeling something sinister happened along the line, but we still can’t find the smoking gun. Confounding.

OWN GOAL

I found a recent tweet by Ms Genevieve Mbama, founder/CEO of Novedad Insights & Solutions Ltd, quite telling. She said when she was schooling in the US, she noticed that most of the support programmes for Africa were channelled to Ghana and Kenya. Why? Nigerians generally badmouth their country. They do not understand that they can criticise their leaders without debasing their country. Even when Americans are trying to recognise something positive out of Nigeria, they will neutralise it with negativism. She wrote: “Generally, Americans are high on patriotism. No matter. So, they DO NOT RESPECT any citizen of another country that DISRESPECTS their country.” Instructive.

NO COMMENT

With effect from January 1, 2026, Nigerians — northerners, southerners, Igbo, Yoruba, Hausa, etc, Christians, Muslims, traditionalists, atheists, members of APC, PDP, Labour Party, and the rest — will no longer be able to apply for certain categories of the US visa owing to restrictions. Those already in the US who are qualified for residency (Green Card) will have their applications put on hold. Also, Nigerians who have become US citizens may not be able to apply for family members to join them for now. Special thanks to Nigerians who launched a well-funded, vicious campaign to designate their motherland as a “country of particular concern”. Hope they are popping champagne now. Hahahaha.