Can Aiyedatiwa’s N492.8bn 2025 Budget Sustain Ondo’s Fiscal Rebirth?

In this report, Fidelis David critically dissects the 2026 budget proposal recently presented by Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa to Ondo State House of Assembly, probing a crucial question: will the fiscal plan make a tangible impact on the lives of the average resident of the Sunshine State?

In recent years, Ondo State has gradually reinvented its public finance system, shifting from the days of heavy borrowing and recurrent-heavy expenditure to a more disciplined, investment-focused model.

Under late Governor OluwarotimiAkeredolu, the state prioritised infrastructure but faced revenue constraints and debts that left several projects hanging. His successor, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, who stepped in amid economic uncertainty, introduced what he termed a “Budget of Recovery” in 2025, focusing on stabilisation and revising inflated donor projections. That budget was later revised down from N698.6 billion to N489.9 billion to reflect more realistic expectations.

Last week, Aiyedatiwa stood before the state lawmakers again, presenting what he called “2026 Budget of Economic Consolidation”—a N492.8 billion expenditure plan that he said will transition the state from recovery to long-term prosperity.

“It is a deliberate shift from mere restoration to sustained consolidation of economic gains. The progress recorded in 2025 must mature into long-term prosperity, resilience, and inclusive development for our people”, he declared before the lawmakers.

But can this ambitious plan truly transform the lives of the people? Or is it another optimistic fiscal projection constrained by structural revenue weaknesses and global economic shocks?

With a state economy heavily dependent on FAAC allocations, civil service dynamics and an agrarian economy, Aiyedatiwa acknowledged inherent risks: dwindling federal revenue, rising inflation (projected nationally at 23% in 2026), and a new VAT distribution formula that may favour consumption-driven states over resource-based ones.

Yet, he insisted the government is prepared. “We have continued our tradition of participatory budgeting. Communities, civil society, youth bodies, farmers and other stakeholders have shaped the 2026 budget.”

Specifically, the proposed budget stands at N492,795,667,939, with 57.22% allocated to capital projects, a strong indicator of development intent. Recurrent expenditure stands at 42.78%, a shift aimed at reducing administrative overheads in favour of physical growth.

The Economic Sector gets the lion’s share with N262.9bn (53.4%), followed by N155.3bn (31.5%) for Social Sector, while Infrastructure alone attracts N131.9bn (26.8%), underscoring what Aiyedatiwa called “a clear intention for infrastructure revolution.

“No project in Ondo State will be left abandoned. Adequate funds have been allocated to complete all ongoing projects.”

In contrast to the revised 2025 budget of N489.998 billion, which was deliberately structured as a Budget of Recovery, the proposed 2026 estimate of N492.795 billion is positioned as a Budget of Economic Consolidation, signalling a transition from stabilisation to long-term growth. While the 2025 fiscal plan had a roughly 50% capital allocation, the 2026 proposal increases capital spending to 57.22%, demonstrating a stronger commitment to development-driven investment.

Unlike the 2025 budget, which was heavily reliant on projected donor inflows, many of which failed to materialise, this new proposal builds resilience through a N159 billion roll-over fund. Besides, the previous budget focused predominantly on infrastructure rehabilitation, the 2026 estimate expands its scope to incorporate human capital development and economic diversification, reflecting a more integrated approach to sustainable growth.

Unlike the 2025 budget which faltered after donor expectations failed, the 2026 plan relies more heavily on roll-over funds (N159.1bn) and development loans (N52.6bn), while projecting N34.8bn from IGR—a figure analysts say is ambitious, considering exemptions for small businesses and low-income earners.

“Revenue could be further constrained, but while exemptions strain short-term revenue, they are beneficial for citizens”, the governor admitted, offering rare candour.

Aiyedatiwa outlined eight core policy thrusts anchored on food security, human capital, infrastructure, IGR efficiency, community resilience, social protection, economic diversification and fiscal prudence. He promised strict budget implementation, minimised debt acquisition and curtailment of fiscal waste.

“Our objective is to deepen reforms and accelerate development. We will invest in education, healthcare, vocational training, expand youth empowerment, scale agricultural mechanisation and strengthen grassroots governance.”

In concrete terms, key sectoral investments reflect targeted development priorities. Education received N63.8 billion, covering the hiring of 2,100 new teachers and payment of N633.9 million in WAEC fees for 23,048 students.

Health was allocated N69.6 billion, which supported the expansion of the Orange Health Insurance Scheme and the N7.2 billion renovation of 102 Primary Healthcare Centres, improving access to quality care. Infrastructure accounted for N131.9 billion, funding ongoing dual carriageway projects, the construction of over 386 kilometres of rural roads, as well as upgrades to the stadium and judicial complex.

In the agriculture sector, N27.58 billion facilitated the distribution of over two million cocoa seedlings and the securing of 26,000 hectares of farmland, advancing food production and export potential while the power sector recorded major strides with the revival of the Omotosho 15MW plant and the introduction of 30 solar mini-grids, boosting energy reliability and reaching underserved communities.

“We have achieved remarkable progress through very prudent management of our lean resources. We will continue strict implementation.”

While the budget appears visionary, experts argue its success depends on implementation discipline and improved IGR frameworks. The governor himself hinted at global economic risks and internal leakages.

The real question remains: how much will this budget affect the average resident? Will the farmer in Idanre feel the impact of mechanisation support? Will the teacher in Oka-Akoko see continued investment beyond recruitment? Can a trader in Okitipupa experience a more efficient tax system rather than disruptive levies?

Though, Governor Aiyedatiwa’s tone suggests confidence. “This budget is the natural progression from previous years’ activities. It is designed to ensure that the progress recorded in 2025 matures into long-term prosperity and inclusive development.”

His critics argue that while figures look promising, execution has always been Ondo’s challenge, citing past administrations where infrastructure gains were made but little budgetary room was left for human capital deepening.

Ondo State stands at a crossroads. From Akeredolu’s heavy capital legacy to Betiku-led fiscal corrections and Aiyedatiwa’s prudence rebirth, the Sunshine State now seeks to evolve from recovery to consolidation.

Ondo’s 2026 budget, though carefully structured, must transcend figures and projections to become a document of transformation and given rising inflation, unemployment among young graduates and pressure on rural communities struggling with erosion, flooding and limited access to power and basic services in the state.

Whether the budget succeeds will depend not on its numeric ambition but on execution integrity, revenue innovation and whether the people, rural farmers, urban entrepreneurs, schoolchildren, and healthcare seekers actually feel the impact.

“We are here by the grace of God and the uncommon goodwill of our people,” Aiyedatiwa told legislators. “We shall justify this mandate.” Only time will tell if those words become legacy or mere rhetoric.