Where is the 2026 budget?

President Bola Tinubu. Photo: State House

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NIGERIA’S budget system is once again in disarray. With just four weeks to end the 2025 fiscal year, the 2026 federal budget has yet to be presented. This exposes deep structural failures that threaten national development and the delivery of essential services. It is a worsening of an already bad situation.

While the federal budget remains in limbo, several states, including Lagos, Anambra, Delta, Oyo, Kano, Katsina, Bauchi, Jigawa, Abia, and Ebonyi, have presented their 2026 budgets.

The January-to-December budget cycle, implemented like clockwork under past military regimes and in the last three years of Muhammadu Buhari, has been derailed under the Bola Tinubu administration, contrary to assurances by Atiku Bagudu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning. This is going backwards.

Additionally, revenue projections based on optimistic estimates of oil prices and production have been disrupted, resulting in increased borrowings.

The government has not demonstrated adequate capacity in budget implementation and transparent reporting, while a stark disconnect exists between the Ministries of Finance and that of Budget and Economic Planning.

This has fuelled confusion, undermined fiscal discipline, and stalled crucial capital projects nationwide.

Yet, proper governance and national progress depend on a budgeting system that works, strictly on time, transparently, and delivers essential services and welfare safeguards to the public.

The UK budget, presented on 26 November, focused on income and property tax, national insurance, energy costs, pensions, schools and the NHS, among other issues that resonate with the public. Politicians in such climes live in trepidation of certain, career-ending, public backlash if they break their promises.

In contrast, Nigeria’s latest budgets have been a mess. Indeed, they mean nothing. Delays stem from late or incomplete budget submissions by ministries and government agencies, while the National Assembly, rather than demand accountability, routinely inserts pet projects, throwing the whole process out of balance.

The NASS inserted 11,122 projects worth N6.93 trillion in the 2025 outlay, many of which bore unmistakable hallmarks of vested interest and corruption.

Indeed, Nigeria is in an untenable situation. The 2023, 2023 supplementary, 2024, and 2025 budgets are running concurrently, with the 2024 budget implementation extended twice until December 2025 and the 2025 capital components still untouched.

This insalubrious overlap contributes to the distressing number of unexecuted capital projects, now estimated to exceed N17 trillion.

It frustrates the preparation of new budgets, leaving critical infrastructure such as roads and power, healthcare, and education projects underfunded or abandoned. Even the bureaucrats in charge privately voice their frustrations with the chaos that has enveloped Nigeria’s fiscal space.

Still, procurement hurdles further slow progress. The cash planning portal, essential for releasing funds, has been locked since May, preventing ministries from uploading cash plans.

Consequently, the issuance of budget warrants to authorise spending has been suspended, meaning that contractors remain unpaid, projects stall, and frustrations rise.

This convoluted system highlights the lack of coordination between the Ministry of Budget and Economic, which drafts allocations, and the Ministry of Finance, which controls fund releases.

Despite increased revenues, Nigeria spent only N4.99 trillion or 20 per cent of its N24.9 trillion CAPEX allocation in 2024, according to a PUNCH report.

Tanimu Yakubu, DG, Budget Office, admitted in August that some 2024 projects were being funded with 2025 funds. This is not how to run a government.

This is why Nigerians have yet to feel any significant impact of the total N107.2 trillion appropriated since 2023. While the government has been able to fund its humongous overheads, Nigerians are denied critical infrastructure, social goods and official support systems. This is unfair amid the untold privations ordinary citizens have to endure due to the government’s reform policies.

These funding delays also have implications for states. Aliyu Ilias of CSA Advisory, in a PUNCH interview, warned that “delays of this scale disrupt project execution across the economy, especially in states that model their fiscal calendars around federal spending.”

He pointed out that “uncertainty in budget timelines reduces credibility and makes it harder for the government to coordinate reforms with expenditure priorities.”

The failure to update and present the 2026–2029 MTEF, despite demands by the parliament, underlines this unseriousness.

This framework, required by the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007, is the backbone of medium-term fiscal planning and should have been ready since June. Its absence creates uncertainty at both the federal and state levels about future budgets, making planning almost impossible.

Unfortunately, these problems discourage private-sector involvement in government projects and also foreign investments, as frequent delays erode transparency and accountability.

This situation confirms recent findings by the Collaborative Africa Budget Reform Initiative that Nigeria’s budgets fail to deliver due to non-release of funds, poor procurement practices, corruption, weak capabilities to plan and execute projects, and lack of continuity in policies and project implementation by succeeding administrations.

The CABR study notes that delays in the budget preparation process lead to late passage by the NASS and assent by the President, while political pressures result in too many projects being executed at once without adequate funding, often leading to abandonment.

Capital projects suffer especially due to the late release of funds and because funds are diverted to unbudgeted projects.

This is aside from poor oversight by legislators who are usually more concerned about securing funds for their constituency projects, to which they are accountable to no one.

Economists caution that the erratic budgeting erodes Nigeria’s credibility with investors, who depend on predictable fiscal management. The government’s fiscal space shrinks as burgeoning debt service obligations, projected at N15.8 trillion or 45 per cent of revenues in 2025, leave scant resources for capital investment essential to growth.

BudgIT has been particularly critical of the government’s mismanagement. The organisation notes public confusion over which budgets are active and how funds are spent. It highlights the inflation of budget figures without visible improvements in Nigerians’ lives, alongside capital components of budgets remaining unimplemented months after approval.

The heavy dependence on borrowing, with the national debt ballooning to N152 trillion as of June, up from N97 trillion in Q4 2023, without timely budget execution, threatens Nigeria’s debt sustainability and signals weak economic governance amid a challenging global economy.

Indeed, Nigeria has borrowed well into the future without ensuring its ability to repay.

Some commentators suggest that the government needs to resolve key fiscal challenges, such as ongoing tax reforms, pre-election political pressures, and the large backlog of unimplemented capital budgets, before submitting the 2026 estimates.

Femi Saibu, a professor of Development Economics at the University of Lagos, said, “(The) government needs to be sure which of these reforms will translate to revenue that can be accommodated in the budget…whatever goes into the 2026 budget must reflect what is actually possible to implement.”

However, the government has no track record of diligent project implementation, even if it must deliver some projects to help boost its re-election campaigns. This delay is dangerous.

To break free from this cycle of mismanagement, Nigeria must reinforce institutional capacity with digital tools to enhance budget quality; enforce legal deadlines for budget submission and passage to restore the January-December cycle, and improve coordination between budgeting and finance ministries for seamless fund releases.

In addition, the government must fast-track consistent updates of the MTEF to guide all budget cycles; optimise procurement-related portals; and ensure transparency by routinely publishing budget implementation reports and strengthening civil society oversight.

The parliament, instead of prioritising access to the gravy train, must exercise maximum oversight functions over the budget, demanding accountability and value for money spent.

Without these concerted efforts, Nigeria risks continued fiscal chaos, stunted economic growth, and increasing cynicism about the government’s ability and/or willingness to deliver.

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