World AIDS Day: UNICEF projects 1.8m child deaths by 2040 amid funding cuts

By : Ijeoma Nwanosike

Date: 1 December 2025 4:40am WAT

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WORLD AIDS

WORLD AIDS

• Says 150,000 adolescents acquired HIV in 2024 • WHO reports 630,000 HIV deaths, 1.3m new infections globally in 2024

United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned that 1.8 million children could die of AIDS-related causes by 2040 unless countries urgently scale up HIV services for mothers, children and adolescents.

Raising the alarm ahead of World AIDS Day, the agency stressed that shrinking funding and persistent gaps in early diagnosis and treatment were putting millions of young lives at risk.

According to recently published UNICEF-UNAIDS modelling, if programme coverage declines by half, an additional 1.1 million children could acquire HIV and another 820,000 could die by 2040, pushing the total toll among children to three million infections and 1.8 million deaths.

Even under present service levels, nearly two million new infections and close to one million AIDS-related child deaths are projected due to the slow pace of progress. The agency noted that 150,000 adolescents acquired HIV in 2024 alone, underscoring the widening gap in access and the disproportionate burden on girls in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ahead of World AIDS Day, celebrated on December 1, the World Health Organisation called for renewed political commitment, global cooperation, and human-rights-centred approaches under the theme ‘Overcoming disruption, transforming the AIDS response’. The agency warned that the “global HIV response is at a crossroads”, with service disruptions increasing risks for vulnerable communities.

WHO estimated that 40.8 million persons were living with HIV in 2024, while 630,000 people died from AIDS-related causes and 1.3 million people newly acquired the virus. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicentre, home to nearly 65 per cent of all people living with HIV.

UNICEF Associate Director of HIV and AIDS, Anurita Bains, said the world had been making progress before abrupt global funding cuts disrupted essential services, warning that ending AIDS in children is now in jeopardy. She said countries moved quickly to mitigate the impact of funding disruptions, but without focused action, decades of gains risk being reversed and millions of young lives could be lost.

Her concern was echoed by the Director General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), Dr Jean Kaseya, who said Africa’s health future must be shaped by African leaders through stronger regional institutions, expanded local manufacturing and sustainable financing systems.

These warnings align with UNICEF’s latest global data from 2024, which showed that 120,000 children aged zero to 14 years acquired HIV and 75,000 died of AIDS-related causes, amounting to about 200 deaths every day. Among adolescents aged 15 to 19, 150,000 acquired HIV, with girls accounting for two-thirds of the cases worldwide and 85 per cent of new infections in sub-Saharan Africa.

It noted that only a little more than half of children living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral therapy, compared to nearly four out of five adults, leaving an estimated 620,000 children without access to life-saving treatment.

UNICEF urged governments and development partners to protect and prioritise HIV services for mothers and children, strengthen prevention of mother-to-child transmission, expand paediatric treatment, integrate HIV care into broader health systems, and ensure predictable donor support through innovative and sustainable financing mechanisms.

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