Rivers: Concern looms over Fubara’s second term

In his outing during the week at the Government House, Port Harcourt, the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, added a fresh concern to a question that is literally on the lips of every Rivers State resident, as well as others with interest in the affairs of the oil-rich state. That is the matter of whether the current governor of the state, Siminalayi Fubara, would enjoy a second term in office come 2027.

Although Ribadu’s visit to the state featured several other activities, with the most visible being the matter of resumption of crude oil in Ogoni land, his speech had raised at least two points that led analysts to interrogate the disposition of President Bola Tinubu with respect to the prospects of a second term for Fubara.

During his address at the Government House Forum, Ribadu had described Rivers State as the most peaceful in the country, while adding that President Bola Tinubu was happy with Siminalayi Fubara as governor.

With such words coming from a most valuable insider of the Bola Tinubu administration as the NSA, it was not out of place for analysts to speculate on their implications for the political future of the state, given the backdrop of the twists and turns that had been its lot since December 30 2023.

That day marked the play-out in the public domain of the deep cleavage that had built up between the state’s former governor, Nyesom Wike and his successor, Siminalayi Fubara, and eventually spawned an impeachment bid sponsored by the former against the latter.

As events played out, the impeachment not only failed but also heralded a series of crises, which ended up in a six-month long state of emergency and the suspension by President Bola Tinubu of Governor Fubara, Deputy Governor Ngozi Ordu and the entire members of the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA).

The president had also appointed a sole administrator to run the affairs of the state for the period of the state of emergency.

It is easily recalled that normalcy was restored only after a deal was brokered between Wike and Fubara camps, in the course of which concessions (read capitulation) were extracted from Fubara, including that he should not seek for a second term in office come 2027. Also was Fubara required to concede the control of the local governments and by implication the grass roots politics in the state.

Against the backdrop of a complement of fresh developments which apparently have altered the ambience of politics in and around the state, the contemplations over a second term for Fubara seem to assume fresh impetus to dominate public discourse.

Most significant among the defining factors of the pulse of Rivers State politics is the recent defection by Fubara from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) – the party of President Bola Tinubu – to which his Wike-sponsored traducers in the RSHA had earlier defected to. Courtesy of the provisions of the APC constitution which confers on the governor the leadership of its structure in the state, Fubara becomes the leader of the APC in Rivers State. And with his recent robust campaign for Tinubu’s second term, his value in the president’s camp has risen some notches up.

Another factor is the appointment by President Bola Tinubu of the newcomer Fubara to the APC Committee on Strategy, Conflict Resolution and Mobilisation to address the internal conflicts within the party. This is a move that manifestly consolidates Fubara’s position in his new political camp as observers see the committee’s task as pacifying aggrieved party members – a mission that requires significant financial payoffs, which Fubara, with his deep pocket, is disposed to play a prominent role in.

Moreover, with the sights of the APC now firmly fixed on the 2027 election cycle, Fubara’s new alignment with Tinubu has definitely upped his relevance with accompanying leverage on the party’s structure, both at the national and state levels.

Among questions on his status are whether Fubara is still a disposable factor who is irredeemably ineligible for a second term in office simply due to a backstage, jaundiced deal for peace in the state between him and Wike’s camp, which promotes parochial interests that are out of sync with the interests of the wider cross section of the state.  Another question is whether the Rivers State electorate shall be denied the free choice of electing Fubara for a second term if they so desire. Yet another question is whether the same electorate in Rivers State shall have their electoral liberties suppressed in favor of the ‘arrangee’ dispensation that is the substance of the concessions for peace between Fubara and Wike.

With answers to these questions hanging in the air, citing of Rivers State by Nuhu Ribadu as the most peaceful state needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, given that it is off the mark. What is needful now is for the presidency to appreciate the situation in Rivers State as a bottled-up storm that is awaiting eruption with the wrong move by the APC, with respect to whose side it favours between Wike and Fubara.

While it may be more profitable for Tinubu and the APC to sustain the new found rapport with Fubara, they also need to prepare for a backlash from Wike’s camp, who may be already hurting and smarting for reprisal action against Tinubu over the new found Tinubu-Fubara tango.

By the way, someone recently mentioned that some Nigerians were actually waiting for a Tinubu -Wike clash. That will be the day!

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