Inflation outperforms Tinubu’s target, eases to 14.45 per cent

By : Joesph Chibueze

Date: 16 December 2025 8:17am WAT

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Nigeria’s headline inflation declined to 14.45 per cent in November, outperforming the 15 per cent projection in the 2025 budget. However, both the month-on-month headline inflation rate and food inflation rates experienced a slight upswing in the month, rising by 1.22 per cent, 0.29 per cent higher than the rate recorded in October.

This means that in November, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in October 2025.

The figures, which were released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show the year-on-year headline inflation dropped by 1.6 per cent, lower than the October rate, which was 16.06 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 20.15 per cent lower than the rate recorded in November 2024, when it stood at 34.6 per cent.

The NBS report shows that the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 130.5 in November 2025, reflecting a 1.6-point increase from the preceding month when it was 128.9.

Inflation has maintained a steady decline since April on the back of macroeconomic improvements. In April, the inflation declined to 23.71 per cent and further to 22.97 per cent in May. It maintained the download trend in June when it hit 22.22 per cent.

In July, it also fell to 21.88 per cent, declining further to 20.12 per cent in August. In September, it fell to 18.02 per cent, before hitting 16.05 per cent in October.

One interesting feature of the CPI figures that have just been released is that while urban inflation is declining, rural inflation is heading upwards. For instance, on a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 0.95 per cent, down by 0.18 per cent compared to October 2025 (1.14 per cent).

On the other hand, the rural inflation rate, on a month-on-month basis, was 1.88 per cent, up by 1.43 per cent compared to October when it was 0.45 per cent.

The NBS also reported that the food inflation rate in November 2025 was 11.08 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 28.85 per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded in November 2024 (39.93 per cent).

Although the NBS attributed the significant decline in the food inflation figure technically to the change in the base year, the effect of the massive food importation cannot be denied.

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate was 1.13 per cent, up by 1.5 per cent compared to October when it was -0.37 per cent. The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of tomatoes, cassava tuber, periwinkle, grounded pepper, eggs, crayfish, melon and onions.

The NBS reported that the major contributor to the November headline inflation remained food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed 5.78 per cent year-on-year and 0.49 per cent month-on-month to the decline.

Analysts have argued that, beyond the effect of the macroeconomic reform, which has seen the exchange rate stabilised, the citizens’ weak purchasing power is also a major factor in the disinflation trend.

They argued that most of the variables that are driving up inflation in the country, such as insecurity, high exchange rate, high cost of energy and poor infrastructure, are still very much active.

At the end of its 303rd meeting last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), retained the monetary policy rate (MPR) at 27 per cent and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and liquidity ratio (LR) unchanged, signalling a cautious approach to sustain disinflation and stabilise the economy.

Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, called for a combination of monetary, fiscal and structural policies to consolidate the gains of disinflation and ensure real welfare benefits for citizens.

“The way to convert the disinflation trend into a general gain is to focus on the prices of basic items and basic needs. If you look at the composition of the inflation drivers, even within the context of disinflation, the major drivers are things like food, energy, transport, education, and health. Those are the major drivers of inflation even within the context of disinflation,” he said.

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