Why the system is failing and what must change

Nigeria’s basic education system is approaching a breaking point, and the consequences stretch far beyond the classroom. The numbers are severe enough to jolt any policymaker: millions of children out of school, millions more in school but not learning, and a pipeline of teachers and infrastructure too thin to support a country whose demographic expansion is accelerating. Yet amid this bleak landscape, pockets of progress remind us that collapse is not inevitable. What Nigeria lacks is not evidence of what works but the discipline to scale it.

UNICEF’s 2024 Situation Analysis presents one of the clearest warnings yet. About 10.2 million primary-school-age children and 8.1 million lower-secondary-age children are out of school, the largest such population anywhere in the world. A related UNICEF briefing adds sharper clarity: one in four children never enters primary school, and three in four who do attend cannot read or do basic numeracy. These are not merely development statistics; they represent the erosion of Nigeria’s human capital at its foundation. In a decade when the country hopes to shift from consumption-led GDP to productivity-led growth, the early learning years of millions are being forfeited.

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But even these figures require nuance. Nigeria’s population is uniquely large and youthful, so its absolute numbers will naturally exceed those of smaller countries. What matters is not just the scale but the trend: indicators have stagnated for years despite multiple national plans. This suggests not only resource scarcity but also a deeper structural and political failure.

The situation inside classrooms is equally troubling. A 2024 World Bank assessment reports that 72.6 percent of Nigerian children aged 7–14 cannot read and understand a simple text. While the worst deficits appear in the Northeast and Northwest, learning poverty is national. Critics sometimes argue that international assessments undervalue local learning contexts or ignore cultural factors. Yet the outcomes align with WAEC, NECO, and state-level diagnostics. The problem is real: Nigeria’s education system is producing learners who cannot compete in a 21st-century economy.

“States with competent leadership and functional systems make visible progress; others fail to meet counterpart funding obligations, leaving billions unaccessed and millions of children underserved.”

Insecurity intensifies the crisis. Across the northern belt, and increasingly in parts of the North Central, school abductions, banditry, and communal violence have turned education into a gamble. Parents choose safety over schooling, and governments struggle to guarantee the most basic condition for learning: physical security. The federal Safe Schools Plan projected a ₦144.8 billion requirement, yet the 2024 budget reportedly allocated only around ₦5 billion, a fraction of what is required. Even allowing for fiscal constraints, the gap signals a troubling mismatch between rhetoric and commitment.

Nigeria’s funding problem is not new, but it remains central. UNESCO recommends that countries invest 15–20 percent of public spending or 4–6 percent of GDP in education. Nigeria’s 2024 federal allocation was roughly 8.2 percent, about 3.3 percent of GDP. Supporters of the current administration argue that states shoulder much of the basic education burden, so federal percentages alone do not tell the full story. That is true but aggregate state spending is neither transparent nor consistently aligned with national benchmarks. Early indications that the 2025 allocation may fall near 7 percent only deepen the concern.

Even in this environment, there are signs of what disciplined reform can achieve. UBEC’s report that ₦92.4 billion in matching grants had been accessed by mid-2025 reflects improved state drawdown and reduced bureaucratic bottlenecks. The commission’s ₦19 billion in teacher development funding also signals a recognition that quality is not infrastructure alone. But here again, the problem is unevenness. States with competent leadership and functional systems make visible progress; others fail to meet counterpart funding obligations, leaving billions unaccessed and millions of children underserved. Nigeria’s basic education outcomes increasingly mirror the patchwork of its political geography.

Development partners have adopted a longer-range view. The World Bank’s $1.57 billion package, including $500 million for education and health governance, represents a shift toward systemic reform rather than discrete projects. The HOPE-GOV programme’s targets, including reducing teacher staffing gaps by 40 percent by 2028, introduce measurable standards. But these gains depend on implementation discipline, something Nigerian governance structures have historically struggled to sustain.

Even quality indicators show worrying volatility. WAEC’s 2025 pass rate reportedly dropped to 38.3 percent from 72.1 percent the year before, a swing too dramatic to be explained solely by student performance. Methodological changes? Examination security issues? A regression in teaching quality? Without clear explanation, such volatility erodes public confidence and complicates long-term planning.

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The teacher pipeline is perhaps the most fragile link. Nigeria faces an estimated 195,000-teacher shortfall in public primary schools. Addressing this requires more than emergency recruitment. It demands a national strategy for training, career progression, compensation, and performance management. Some policymakers argue that technology can offset the shortage. EdTech can support learning, but no nation has achieved foundational literacy and numeracy without a strong cadre of teachers. Nigeria will not be the first.

Corporate Nigeria also has a stake. A private sector that relies on competent labour cannot survive in an environment where children cannot read. The question is not charity but competitiveness. Companies can support data systems, digital pedagogy, and infrastructure but only if these interventions are embedded in long-term government-led reforms.

Ultimately, the argument for urgent reform is economic as much as moral. Nigeria adds millions to its labour force annually. Without foundational skills, this demographic “advantage” becomes a demographic burden. Human capital, not population size, determines productivity.

Nigeria stands at a hinge moment. The evidence paints a dire picture but also points to workable solutions. To turn this crisis into opportunity, the country must raise investment levels, enforce accountability, strengthen teacher quality, and secure schools as a non-negotiable priority. Basic education is not social spending. It is economic infrastructure. And a nation that fails to build that infrastructure early will spend decades paying for the consequences.

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