FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF with N50.7tr revenue forecast, N20.1tr deficit

House of Representatives

The federal executive council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), which outlines Nigeria’s economic assumptions, revenue outlook and spending priorities for the next three years.

Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, briefed journalists after Wednesday’s council meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu. He said the document was jointly prepared by the budget office of the federation and his ministry.

Bagudu said the council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, although fiscal planning will be based on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd. The oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512/$.

He noted that the exchange rate outlook reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, adding that the assumptions followed macroeconomic and fiscal modelling by the budget office and partner agencies. Inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.

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Based on the benchmarks, federation revenue for 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion. Of this, the federal government is projected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, ₦16.3 trillion for states and ₦11.85 trillion for local governments.

“When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total federal government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion — a decline of ₦6.55 trillion or 16 percent from the 2025 budget estimate,” Bagudu said.

Statutory transfers are expected to total roughly ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing is projected at ₦10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure — including personnel costs and overheads — is pegged at ₦15.27 trillion.

The fiscal deficit for 2026 is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, equivalent to 3.61 percent of GDP.

The MTEF forecasts nominal GDP of over ₦690 trillion in 2026, rising to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028, with GDP growth projected at 4.6 percent in 2026. Non-oil GDP is expected to expand from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is projected to increase from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion over the same period.

Bagudu said Tinubu is confident that consolidating macroeconomic stability, sustaining current reforms and implementing the MTEF faithfully will place the economy on a stronger growth trajectory.

FEC also reviewed submissions from ministries before approving the medium-term fiscal expenditure ceiling (MFTEC), designed to manage public spending and reinforce fiscal discipline.

Oluwatosin Ogunjuyigbe is a writer and journalist who covers business, finance, technology, and the changing forces shaping Nigeria’s economy. He focuses on turning complex ideas into clear, compelling stories.

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