Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and its Challenges

By Nnenna Elendu-Ukeje

After three decades of military interventions and dominance, a convergence of anti-military forces, pro-democracy civil society organizations, determined Nigerian citizens and international pressure groups, would ensure that the dream of a democratic Nigeria was actualized to great hope and expectations of new found freedoms and all the celebrated gains of self-rule. This achievement was probably the most consequential democratic experiment of the global south.A period of great global power peace gave rise to the growth of globalism and multilateralism which fostered cooperation and strengthened the Anglo-American consensus of global governance; Nigeria would be a beneficiary of that new world order.

Over two decades, the world has witnessed a stealth period of democratic recession which to many was almost imperceptible. Democratic principles were silently being remodified to the point where a critical re-examination is required as the underpinnings of our views on democratic institutions, rules and ethos are being redefined most disruptively. The thought-provoking speech by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada at the world economic forum in Davos yesterday was the big bang that seems to have shaken us all out of our reverie and caused us to seriously interrogate what we knew democracy to be as well as to honestly assess our preparedness for the emerging new world order.

As we seek to interrogate the health of our democratic experiment, I shall speak to the growing gaps between politics and governance today; which has become the defining challenge of Nigeria’s fourth republic. Remaining optimistic, I shall try to challenge the dooms day quote by John Quincy Adams; the 2nd President of the United States of America’ which says “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself.”John F. Kennedy; the 35th President of the United States of America, says and I quote, ‘’Democracy is never a final achievement, it’s a call to an untiring effort’.’

We are confronted with questionable electoral integrity, the proliferation of illiberal democracies and constitutional overreach. In the African sub-region, the increasing incidence and popularity of military coups as well as the security, stability and prosperity of non-democratic countries such as China, Singapore and United Arab Emirates increase our quandary. The superior qualities of democracy are under scrutiny. Will our untiring efforts according to JFK challenge the death prophecy according to John Adams?

Statistics from the institute for democracy and electoral assistance state that globally 58% of adults are dissatisfied with democracy. In Nigeria a significant and growing number (over 70%) are dissatisfied with how democracy actually functions in the country, seeing it as flawed or poorly implemented, and many believing elections don’t reflect their views or remove bad leaders.

Yes, Nigerians vote but accountability remains weak, institutions are not rules based, public confidence in leadership is declining and voter turnout has steadily dropped, reflecting growing political disillusionment. Voter turnout in Nigeria’s Presidential elections have declined sharply over recent years; from 52% in 1999, to 46% in 2015, and then 35% in 2019, to a dismal 26.7% in 2023 reflecting continued disengagement from the electoral process.

Access to quality education, healthcare, housing and social protection remains uneven. Nigeria has one of the highest numbers of out-of-school children globally, estimated at over 18 million. Health indicators lag behind peer countries. Social policies often react to crises rather than preventing them. Nigeria’s population is young, energetic and ambitious, yet grossly underutilized. When human potential is wasted, democratic hope weakens, brain drain and limited opportunities threaten long term productivity. However, for the 4th Republic it is not all gloom and doom, there are some high points;

An unbroken chain of transfer of democratic power through 8 cycles of elections from one ruling political party the PDP, to a previously opposition coalition party APC without interruptions by coups or extra-judicial changes should be cheery news. It should be an indication that our democracy is alive and well. But is it? Unfortunately, democracy is simply not only the ballot box; democracy is not validated by longevity alone, it is validated by outcomes.

Our democratic experiment raises its own credibility questions. The independence of the umpire INEC, the shrinking of the political space, the heightened intolerance of any viable opposition and the decline of multiparty political systems. There are allegations that Nigeria dances dangerously on the brink of becoming a one-party state. The only challenge to that rests on the belief that our diversity will prove such attempted monolithic control near impossible. We wait and see.

The governability of our democracy is exposing huge gaps. To understand our strength and failures we must first query what is elections, what is governance and why confusing the two has become costly. Elections is about winning power, it is a means to an end, while governance is about using power responsibly and effectively. Governance is long term planning, it is institutional defence and growth, it is policy formation and implementation; it is service delivery, it is accountability.

Elections are episodic, governance is continuous. Elections ask who should lead, governance answers how society should be run. Elections create authority, governance creates outcomes. The paradox of the fourth Republic is that while politics is vibrant, democracy is fragile. Democracy simply appears unable to solve the country’s major problems of rising widespread insecurity and the eradication of multi-dimensional poverty which seems to have overwhelmed the leadership of the country. I will highlight.

Amidst declining public finance accountability and profligacy amongst the political class, According to World Bank reports of 2025, over 75% of Nigerians live below the United Nations (UN) poverty threshold of $2 per day; translating to over 133 million people who are said to be living in multi-dimensional poverty; a steep rise from 87 million in 2018 with a new Price Water Cooper report projecting 141 million people by the end of 2026.More disturbing statistics from the NDIC confirmed by the Minister of Finance; Mr. Wale Edun states that only 2% of the 70 million bank account holders have more than ₦500,000 five hundred thousand naira ($350) or above in their account. Democracy has clearly not translated to economic security.

The quest for nation building and cohesion has proven to be a major challenge with our fault lines magnified by our socio-economic disparities. This polarization with its ethnic and religious leanings obviously predates the 4th Republic but has been exacerbated over time by vicious politics and entrenched inequalities, partisan traditional media, distrust in institutions and technological tools like social media and Artificial intelligence, spewing hate speech and violence, computational propaganda, deep fakes and imagery.

Nigerians today do not speak only about the traditionally perceived inequity between the north and south of Nigeria, as we inch closer towards the election cycle, the recurrent North-South conversations are again beginning to rear their heads this time with a different more divisive twist. For the first time, more people are beginning to engage in the Micro equity and Southern contiguity conversations, probably as a result of the perception of a skewed distribution of resources arising from widely held and touted beliefs that the southwest benefits unfairly at the expense of the other composite parts of the southern region like the South-East and the South- South.

Our democracy has obviously not learnt to walk the narrow corridor of creating a state strong enough to ensure stability amidst democratically guaranteed institutional freedoms such as the freedom of expression and freedom of association. Repression has become increasingly fashionable, illiberal populism seems to be on the rise and the rule of law seems to be in retreat.

No honest assessment can ignore gender disparities in political and leadership representation: There is a Chinese saying that ‘’you can’t hold up the sky with one hand.’’Nigeria has a historically low representation of women in political office, generally under 6 %, and was ranked 139th out of 156 countries in gender equality metrics. With 14 females out of 360 members in the House of Representatives and only 4 out of 109 Senators, Nigeria falls significantly below the African regional average of roughly 23.4% and the global average of 26.1% for women in parliament. 15 states out of 36 operate their legislature with zero female representation.

When half the population is underrepresented in decision-making, development and governance, outcomes inevitably suffer. This is not merely a gender issue; it is a governance failure. Evidence consistently shows that societies that include women in leadership experience:

A democracy that marginalizes women weakens itself. The period between 1999 and 2003 surpassed the prescribed 35% in appointive positions and witnessed women holding very strategic cabinet positions and delivering excellently on their mandate. The evidence is not abstract. Nigeria itself provides a powerful counterfactual.

When Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was appointed Minister of Finance, Nigeria was burdened by over$30 billion in external debt, with debt servicing consuming a crippling share of national revenue and crowding out spending on development. Through disciplined fiscal management, institutional

reform, and one of the most complex sovereign negotiations in modern history, her leadership culminated in a landmark $18 billion debt relief deal with the Paris Club in 2005. That single outcome:

This was not symbolic inclusion. It was measurable national gain. The lesson is clear: when Nigeria entrusted a woman with real authority over a critical institution, the result was not optics, it was outcomes. It was not propaganda; it was felt in all our homes.

Legislative interventions such as the special seat bill which has been presented consistently in the last three assemblies, the 8th, 9th and 10th assemblies have failed to get the desired legislative votes to achieve the affirmative action fillip required to close the embarrassing gender gaps as yet. The National Assembly will do well to seize this opportunity to etch its name glowingly in the annals of Nigeria’s history by passing the Special Seats Bill to allow for more female participation in governance. Nigeria desperately needs it.

Africa has been referred to as a young continent with old leadership and it is no less true for Nigeria. Over 70% of the Nigerian population is below the age of 40. 154 million young men and women out of our approximately 220 million population. Were all the youth in Nigeria to be resident in one country, that country would be the 10th most populous country in the world. The youth suffer much the same fate as women. The Nigerian state will do well to recognize the benefits of integrating this critical, mobile, innovative human force of development.

The Nigerian Judiciary has a 21% approval rating. A new report by the Africa Polling Institute (API) has found that 79% of Nigerians have little to no trust in the country’s judiciary, citing concerns like political influence, inefficiency, delay of the judicial process and erosion of integrity. Ironically, this appears to contrast sharply with known cases of bold judges who stood against authoritarian actions during the military era.

Justice Niki Tobi (JSC) of blessed memory puts it succinctly and I quote; “While politics as a profession is fully and totally based on partiality, most of the time, judgeship as a profession is fully and totally based on impartiality, the opposite of partiality. Their waters must never meet in the same way Rivers Niger and Benue meet at the confluence near Lokoja. If they meet, the victim will be democracy most of the time and that will be bad for sovereign Nigeria. We need democracy; not despotism, oligarchy and totalitarianism. Judges should, on no account, dance to the music played by politicians because that will completely destroy their role as independent umpires in the judicial process”.

This in my opinion should be the new template for the judiciary in Nigeria’s fledgling democracy.The problems that confront the legislature are tetra-headed. It battles weak legislative support systems and high attrition rate. The National Assembly records an average of 75% in legislator’s turnover since the fourth republic. Consequently, there is no institutional memory. In 26 years, the Legislature as an institution has struggled constantly to find its true relevance and independence in the tripartite spectre of democratic governance.

The bastion of our democracy, it is the only institution in government that echoes the voice of the people. The duty of the legislature is to mitigate usurpation of authority and accumulation of power in one person. When performed optimally, it checks unilateral executive action and balances the powers of the executive.

Between 2005 and 2006, an independent legislature voted against a constitutional amendment that sought to extend the tenure of an administration beyond the prescribed term limits.In 2010, the Legislature invoked the controversial “doctrine of necessity” to proffer a political solution at a turbulent time in our nation’s history.

In the quest to entrench legislative independence, the National Assembly in a well-publicized act of defiance resisted executive interference in the choice of her leadership and experienced probably the most vibrant Assembly till date. That was a period of mutual respect, greater accountability, better representation and more robust citizen participation. Those were the 7th & 8th Assemblies.Sadly, the National Assembly seems to have yielded the hard fought for independence. There exists overarching executive dominance probably as a result of interference in the emergence of the leadership of the 10th Assembly which has earned them the unkind sobriquet from the Nigerian public; “Rubber Stamp Assembly”.

The integrity of the National Assembly, its actors and its actions have never been called more to question as recently when one of the core functions of the legislature, law making came under scrutiny amidst alleged distortions, inclusions and forgeries; and someone, or people or institutions acting Ultra Vires; post assent of a critical piece of legislation; The Nigerian Tax law. This, for the first time in our history sadly calls to question the integrity of all the laws that have been passed recently.

With regards to oversight another core function of the national assembly, the people question the inability to fund capital budgets, the three year cumulative budget deficit exceeding fifty trillion Naira, the 2026 fiscal deficit of 23.85 trillion naira, and debt service obligations of 15.2 trillion naira which exceeds the combined budget allocation for defense and security at a time where our country is almost crippled by insecurity, education and health budgets combined. People worry that the Mid Term Expenditure Framework MTEF and the Appropriation Act are blind to details of

the much-touted Lagos-Calabar coastal high way in spite of its staggering cost. Furthermore, Nigerians understandably concerned about the leadership selection process, worry about the abuse of the confirmation powers for the Executive positions. The National Assembly seems to have abandoned all pretence of neutrality and the people question not only their performance but their competence.

In conclusion, without doubt, our country is exhibiting the warning signs of democratic fatigue. Voter apathy, youth disengagement, separatist tensions, and rising cynicism are warning signs. With more liberal voices silenced, we are confronted with the rise of populism and sycophantic allegiance to man not state. A sad reality is highlighted by the fact that those who wish to push the very elastic limits of our democracy are weaponizing and deploying the very institutions that should uphold and sustain it. The arduous task to prove that democracy can still deliver better than any other alternatives depend on the critical shift from democracy as power acquisition to democracy as service and governance.

We the people must be reminded that it is not only permissible, to hold government to account, it is our duty, we must stop looking away from the fact that the titanic of state has hit an ice berg, we must stop dancing to the loud music of elections and start to look for the life boats of governance. We all, the tripod of the elected; the citizens and the gatekeepers; made up of the media, civil society and the judiciary, with political parties acting as filters, must recommit to personal, institutional and systemic reforms. We must unlearn those retrogressive habits and position to acquire new rules of governance that will help us survive and dominate the revolutionary change that is upon us. In the words of Mark Carney, ‘’if we are not at the table, we are on the menu’’.

We must breach the trust deficit between the elected and the governed. We must demand transparency from the elected and resist the constitutional overreach of the executive. We must defend the integrity of strong state institutions and finally, we must insist on a respected impartial justice system.A unified vision in our collective quest for security, good governance, prosperity, inclusiveness and accountability must be the absolute barest minimum. Embracing our diversity is non-negotiable if we intend to build a prosperous nation in today’s world.