Global trade to hit record high this year, says UNCTAD

By : Benjamin Alade

Date: 11 December 2025 3:59am WAT

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UNCTAD

UNCTAD

Global trade is on course to exceed a record $35 trillion this year, a seven per cent year-on-year increase, UNCTAD‘s year-end ‘Global Trade Update’ has said.

The new data confirmed that trade continued to expand throughout the second half of this year, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum.

East Asia, Africa and South–South trade powered gains, while rising uncertainty shapes the outlook for 2026, it noted. Global trade growth remained strong this year, but slowed in the third and fourth quarters.

Between July and September, global trade grew by 2.5 per cent compared with the previous three months. Trade in goods rose nearly two per cent, while trade in services increased by four per cent.

Further, growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace, at 0.5 per cent for goods and two per cent for services.

If projections hold, goods will add about $1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services $750-billion, which are consistent with an overall seven per cent increase for the full year.

Meanwhile, UNCTAD noted that a key shift is unfolding in prices. After two quarters in which trade values rose partly because goods became more expensive, prices are now expected to drop, it points out.

As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes, which is the actual quantity of goods shipped, rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases, it noted.

Trade inflation is also set to fall in the fourth quarter, it added. Further, East Asia, Africa and South–South trade led gains, with East Asia recording the strongest export growth over the past year of nine per cent, supported by a 10 per cent surge in intra-regional trade.

Africa also performed strongly, with imports up 10 per cent and exports six per cent higher. South–South trade expanded by about eight per cent, which reflects deepening economic ties among developing economies, the report pointed out.

China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa. India and China also posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, which underscores the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade.

Additionally, manufacturing grew by 10 per cent over the year, led by a 14 per cent increase in electronics driven by AI-related demand. Agriculture expanded sharply in the third quarter, with cereals and fruit and vegetable exports each rising 11 per cent.

However, the automotive trade fell by four per cent, while the fossil fuel trade declined amid lower prices, UNCTAD said. Trade in 2025 has consistently outpaced global economic growth, thereby reversing the stagnation of 2023 to 2024, UNCTAD pointed out.

However, imbalances remain elevated, and friend-shoring and near-shoring, which are trade shifting towards politically-aligned or geographically closer partners, have strengthened again, which is reshaping trade patterns.

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