BREAKING: FG approves N54tn MTEF for 2026 to 2028

Minister of  Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu

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The Federal Executive Council has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, fixing a conservative oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a budget exchange rate of N1,512/$1 for 2026.

Briefing State House correspondents after the Council’s meeting in Abuja on Wednesday, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the framework, drawn with inputs from MDAs, the private sector, civil society and development partners, will be transmitted to the National Assembly on Monday, December 8, at the latest.

Bagudu said the MTEF proposed two oil production targets, split between an ambitious 2.06 million barrels per day and a lower 1.80mbpd used for budgeting.

“For the first time, a target oil production as well as benchmark oil production were adopted.

“The target oil production is 2.06 million barrels per day, which the management of the oil industry is tasked to produce.

“However, so that we don’t run into revenue problems, we use a benchmark oil production figure of 1.8 [mbpd] for budget purposes,” Bagudu said.

On price, he added that the $64.85/bbl benchmark is deliberately below Nigeria’s typical realisations.

“Even the oil benchmark of $64.85 which is being used this year, is lower than the average selling price of Nigeria’s crude oil, because Nigeria is a premium Bonny Light producer. But for an abundance of caution, we are using $64.85,” he explained.

Bagudu noted that the 2026 macro assumptions also include a growth rate projection of 4.68 per cent and a budget exchange rate of N1,512/$1.

He noted, “Given that 2026 is a pre-election year, there is a lot of election activity spending that can typically affect the exchange rate.”

According to the minister, gross Federation revenue is estimated at N50.74tn for 2026, to be shared as follows: Federal Government, N22.60tn; states, N16.30tn; and local governments, N11.85tn.

Consequently, total Federal Government revenue from all sources is projected at about N34.33 trillion, inclusive of N4.98 trillion remitted by government-owned enterprises.

“This figure is 16 per cent lower than that of the 2025 budget estimate,” Bagudu said.

He outlined the major spending heads which include statutory transfers of around N3tn; debt service of N15.91tn; and non-debt recurrent (personnel and pensions) of about N15.27tn.

With a projected deficit of N20.10tn, about 3.61 per cent of the estimated GDP, Bagudu said the implied federal spending envelope is roughly ₦54.43tn.

The former Kebbi state governor said the draft also reviews 2025 budget implementation and embeds stakeholder inputs across the macro background, parameters and fiscal risks.

“Relevant inputs from stakeholders have been integrated into the framework,” he said.

Beyond the paper, he disclosed that Tinubu has secured National Economic Council buy-in for tighter policy coordination and priority spending.

“The President called for more collaboration and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies and sought the approval of the National Economic Council to invest more in security spending, in particular, the rehabilitation of training institutions of security agencies,” Bagudu said.

He added that FEC endorsed increased “Federation vigilance to eliminate revenue loss from illegal activities in the oil and gas sectors as well as critical mineral sectors,” alongside a push for “critical minimum transformational investment for infrastructure” through the Renewed Hope infrastructure funding and measures to boost domestic production.

The minister also revealed that the memo to FEC was presented by the Director-General of the Budget Office, supported by his team and the Economic Management Team, after “technical discussions, bilateral engagement as well as expert consultations” with stakeholders to ensure the framework reflects “collective aspiration.”

The MTEF/FSP, a statutory three-year fiscal guide, sets the assumptions that will underpin the 2026 Appropriation Bill, including oil/output benchmarks, revenue profiles, deficit limits and the spending mix.

With three years of experience, Stephen, The PUNCH correspondent, has been covering Nigeria’s presidency, politics, security, immigration and trafficking in persons

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