Businesses Bet on Stronger Naira, Improved Activity as Confidence Builds into 2026

Nume Ekeghe

Nigerian businesses are entering 2026 with renewed optimism, underpinned by expectations of naira appreciation, stronger business activity and improving operating conditions, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN), December 2025 Business Expectations Survey, has revealed.

The survey showed that corporate leaders across the Industry, Agriculture and Services sectors expect the naira to strengthen against the US dollar over the short, medium and long term, reflecting growing confidence in currency stability after months of macro-economic reforms and relative stability toward the end of 2025.

This rising optimism, the CBN noted, signals improved sentiment around planning, investment decisions and operational predictability as firms look ahead to 2026.

“Business confidence indicators remained firmly in positive territory in the closing months of 2025. The aggregate Business Confidence Index (BCI) stood at 37.5 index points in December 2025, with projections rising to 52.5 points within six months, suggesting robust optimism extending into mid-2026.

“Respondents expect the Naira to US Dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. Also, they anticipate continuous positive outlook for the borrowing rate during the same periods,” it stated.

The survey added, “The Confidence Index (CI), an indicator of aggregate business sentiment, reflects widespread optimism among surveyed firms concerning the macroeconomic environment across all reference periods. The sustained positive sentiment for December 2025 is largely attributed to favourable expectations regarding the volume of business activity.

“All the sectors expressed optimism about the macroeconomy in December 2025, with the Industry Sector recording the highest confidence. The Agriculture sector had the highest expansion plan while Mining sector had the highest plan for employment in January 2026.

“All sectors reported a positive outlook for employment and expansion for next month. Similarly, all the sectors also reported positive employment outlook for all the review periods. Despite the prevailing optimism, firms identified significant challenges to include Insecurity, High/Multiple Taxes and Insufficient Power Supply.”