The industrial opportunity we keep missing

Nigeria is once again talking up cassava, and this time, it appears the conversation is shifting from slogans to measurable ambition. In October 2025, stakeholders gathered at the National Assembly to endorse the Cassava Flour Inclusion Bill under a broader “One Cassava Agenda”, with proponents arguing that the nation can finally align “innovation, finance and policy” behind cassava industrialisation.

That coordination is welcome, but Nigeria must be careful not to repeat an old national mistake, which is building policy excitement around the easiest product in the value chain while leaving the real money (and the real industrial leverage) on the table.

Read also: Manufacturers, UNIDO push energy efficiency drive to boost industrial competitiveness in Kano

If flour is where we stop, we will have merely improved subsistence. If starch and derivatives are where we go, we can build industrial depth.

A Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA) analysis points to an unmet cassava starch demand worth about $485 million, a gap large enough to attract serious domestic processing investment and reshape import dependence in key industries.

Nigeria produces cassava in massive volumes, but raw roots are a poor industrial commodity. They spoil fast, are costly to transport over long distances, and do not support the predictable input schedules that modern factories demand. Industrial buyers want consistency – stable supply, uniform quality, and standard specifications.

That is where starch wins, as cassava starch is shelf-stable, warehousable, contractible and testable. It is the industrial language that manufacturers understand. It can move through storage and logistics systems the way breweries, food processors, pharmaceutical firms and other factories operate, on predictable cycles, not seasonal luck.

Starch, in other words, converts cassava from farm output into industrial cash flow.

That also explains why the real opportunity is not simply to farm more cassava but to process better cassava at scale.

Nigeria’s starch deficit is not happening in isolation. Globally, cassava starch demand is rising as food and industrial buyers search for functional, cleaner-label inputs. Grand View Research estimates the global cassava starch market at $5.77 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $8.14 billion by 2030.

Even alternative forecasts still point upward. Mordor Intelligence also projects continued growth to 2030, driven by clean-label demand and broader industrial use cases.

This matters because Nigeria’s importers and manufacturers do not operate in a vacuum. When global demand rises, international prices firm up, and import availability becomes less certain. So what looks like a local opportunity is also a strategic hedge against external shocks.

“The way forward is building the midstream, not just the farm, as Nigeria’s cassava industrial future will be determined by how quickly it builds a reliable midstream (processing, quality systems, logistics, and offtake contracts).”

Meanwhile, Nigeria must confront three implications now. First among them is that industrial input insecurity is a national economic risk. Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is already under pressure from forex volatility and import bottlenecks. Depending on imported starch and derivatives, manufacturers are subject to currency swings, shipment delays, and production disruptions. Local starch capacity is not merely an agribusiness idea; it is industrial risk management.

Secondly, floor policies alone will not deliver industrial transformation. The Cassava Flour Inclusion Bill may boost local value addition, but Nigeria must avoid treating flour inclusion as the finish line. Starch, sweeteners, modified starches and industrial inputs are where higher margins, deeper linkages and stronger industrial competitiveness live.

And without quality and reliability, ‘Made-in-Nigeria’ will still lose to imports. The central issue is not that Nigeria cannot grow cassava; the problem is that industries cannot consistently get starch that meets standards, month after month, at scale. As BusinessDay has reported previously, buyers often complain about inconsistent supply and quality problems in local starch and flour substitutes, forcing continued imports.

Read also: Abia to establish industrial policy to enhance ease of doing business

That is the hard truth, as industrial buyers do not purchase patriotism; they purchase specifications.

Globally, crop switching signals show cassava demand can reshape planting decisions and prices. In December 2025, Reuters reported that Thai farmers were switching to cassava amid stronger demand signals, including demand from China, reinforcing the point that cassava prices and availability are shaped by global dynamics, not Nigeria’s hopes.

For Nigeria, the lesson is simple: imports will not always be cheap, stable or available, especially when demand rises elsewhere or logistics tighten. So, the smarter strategy is not to import vulnerability but to build domestic capacity.

The way forward is building the midstream, not just the farm, as Nigeria’s cassava industrial future will be determined by how quickly it builds a reliable midstream (processing, quality systems, logistics, and offtake contracts).

The practical paths to achieving this will include starting with guaranteed offtake and demand-led factories. The first question is not, How many hectares do we have? But who will buy the starch every month? Processing plants should be anchored around signed buyers – breweries, food processors, pharmaceutical manufacturers and industrial users.

Also, scaling supply through clusters and contract farming. Government and investors should prioritise farmer aggregation models: clusters, cooperatives, and structured contract farming with clear pricing and delivery terms. This spreads risk, raises productivity and creates traceable supply networks, which is exactly what processors need.

Likewise, treating quality as critical infrastructure. Quality is not a slogan; it is equipment, labs, moisture control, process discipline and standardisation. If Nigeria cannot deliver consistent granulation, dryness levels and purity standards, the market gap will remain a theory.

Similarly, fixing logistics and energy around processing zones.

Starch processing is energy- and water-dependent, and cassava roots are time-sensitive. Industrial parks and agro-processing zones should be built around cassava belts, with reliable power solutions and efficient road links. This is where policy must move from speeches to concrete support.

Equally, moving up the ladder, we should realise that native starch is only the beginning. Once Nigeria proves reliability, the bigger margins lie in modified starches and industrial derivatives that deepen customer lock-in and reduce broader import dependence.

Nigeria has the crop, it has the demand, and it even has the policy momentum. What it lacks is execution capacity – processing discipline, quality assurance, supply contracts, and infrastructure that keeps factories running.

Read also: Digital infrastructure, IoT, and Nigeria’s industrial readiness question

The $485 million starch gap is not a feel-good statistic but a clear signal that Nigerian manufacturers are paying for a product Nigeria should be producing competitively at home.

If Nigeria is serious about a non-oil industrial story that ordinary investors can understand, cassava starch is one of the most bankable options on the table. But the only winners will be those who solve reliability and standards before everyone else arrives.

comment is free

Send 800word comments to [email protected]

Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date