CBN Projects Current Account Surplus To Hit $18.81bn In 2026

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that Nigeria’s current account balance is expected to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, from $16.94 billion recorded in 2025.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, the increase represents 11.16% of GDP, from 10.94% in 2025.

Increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of US$10.15 billion.

The International Investment Position (IIP) is projected to record a net borrowing position of US$69.58 billion in 2026, as attractive yields are anticipated to further boost capital inflows.

Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to increase to $51.04 billion.

The outlook for Nigeria is framed against a mixed global environment.

Global economic growth is estimated at 3.20 per cent in 2025, slightly below the 3.30 per cent recorded in 2024, weighed down by lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.

However, global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, helped by lower energy prices and the continued normalisation of supply chains. ­

Inflation pressures moderat­ed over most of 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the Nation­al Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation, which stood at 24.48 per ­cent in January 2025, declined to an estimated annual average of 21.26 per cent, reflecting the lagged impact of a tight monetary policy stance, improved fiscal-monetary coordination, exchange rate sta­bility and base effects.

The CBN, however, projected headline inflation to moderate to an estimated average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by declining food and premium motor spirit (PMS) prices.

According to the apex bank, the outlook for the domestic economy could be susceptible to several risks.

“Unanticipated headwinds may upturn the expected deceleration in inflation. Inflation projections could be derailed if fiscal expenditure rises disproportionately above the benchmark or if a sudden deterioration in global financial market condition triggers capital reversals that could rekindle exchange rate volatility.”

It, however, noted that growth prospects could be adversely affected if an unlikely reversal of the expected disinflation necessitates monetary tightening.

“Unfavourable climatic conditions and potential disruptions to crude oil production could also dampen projected output growth, impair budget implementation and weaken overall macroeconomic performance.”

In addition, it noted that unanticipated headwinds, such as continued geopolitical tensions and re-escalation of protectionist trade policies, could adversely affect the trade balance and exchange rate stability.

On the non-oil side, exports of agricultural commodities and fertilisers are projected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s export value chain.

“The recently launched National Export Trading Company (to address persistent gaps in the export value chain) and National Intellectual Property Policy (to boost creative exports) are expected to further buoy non-oil receipts,” the apex bank added.

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Despite the stronger export outlook, total imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting higher demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.

The services account deficit is also expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026, compared with $12.80 billion in 2025.

The CBN attributed this to higher payments for business and transport services, driven by increased demand for research and development services and rising freight charges linked to higher non-oil imports.

Meanwhile, the primary income account is projected to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion due to higher investment income payments to non-resident investors.

The bank noted that relatively attractive domestic yields are expected to continue attracting foreign portfolio inflows, which in turn increase interest and dividend outflows.

The secondary income account is projected to rise to a $26.13 billion surplus in 2026 from $23.82 billion in 2025, driven by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers.

Some of these inflows are also expected to support election-related activities during the period.