Nigeria’s Inflation Cools, Food Prices Finally Ease

After months of punishing price pressures, Nigeria closed December 2025 with a piece of good news: inflation slowed meaningfully. New data shows easing price growth across food, core items, and rural areas—an important signal for household welfare, business confidence, and diaspora engagement with the economy.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up 0.7 points from November. While prices are still rising, the pace of increase is now clearly moderating.

On a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 per cent in December 2025, down from 17.33 per cent in November. Compared with December 2024, when inflation was 34.80 per cent, the decline is even more striking.

This represents a 19.65 percentage-point reduction, reflecting a significant easing in price pressures—albeit measured against a different base year.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.54 per cent, compared with 1.22 per cent in November. In practical terms, prices were still rising, but at a much slower rate.

The average inflation rate for the 12 months ending December 2025 stood at 23.01 per cent.

Urban inflation in December 2025 stood at 14.85 per cent year-on-year, down sharply from 37.29 per cent in December 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, however, urban inflation edged up to 0.99 per cent, slightly higher than November’s 0.95 per cent. The 12-month average urban inflation rate stood at 23.46 per cent.

Rural inflation continued to ease more decisively. On a year-on-year basis, it stood at 14.56 per cent, compared with 32.47 per cent a year earlier.

On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 0.55 per cent, a sharp reversal from the 1.88 per cent increase recorded in November. The 12-month average rural inflation rate was 21.93 per cent.

Food inflation—a key pressure point for Nigerian households—recorded one of the strongest improvements.

In December 2025, food inflation stood at 10.84 per cent year-on-year, down dramatically from 39.84 per cent in December 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, food prices declined by 0.36 per cent, compared with an increase of 1.13 per cent in November.

This decline was driven by falling average prices of staples such as tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper, and fresh onions.

The 12-month average food inflation rate stood at 22.00 per cent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile farm produce and energy, stood at 18.3 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, down from 29.28 per cent in December 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed to 0.58 per cent, from 1.28 per cent in November. The 12-month average core inflation rate stood at 23.49 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, all-items inflation was highest in Abia, Ogun, and Katsina, while Sokoto, Plateau, and Kaduna recorded the lowest increases.

On a month-on-month basis, the highest increases were recorded in Cross River, Abia, and Delta, while Ondo, Gombe, and Jigawa recorded declines.

For food inflation, year-on-year increases were highest in Yobe, Ogun, and Abuja, while Akwa Ibom, Sokoto, and Plateau recorded the slowest rises. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose most in Imo, Nasarawa, and Yobe, but declined in Plateau, Rivers and Zamfara.

The slowdown in inflation is more than a statistical milestone—it signals a potential turning point.

Lower food inflation eases pressure on household incomes, while softer core inflation supports business planning and investment decisions. Combined with falling rural inflation, it suggests improving supply conditions and a gradual stabilisation of prices.

If sustained, this trend strengthens the case for lower interest rates over time, improved credit access, and stronger consumer confidence—critical ingredients for economic recovery.

For Nigerians abroad, easing inflation has real implications — stronger purchasing power for remittances, as money sent home buys more essentials. It also improves investment confidence, particularly in consumer-facing sectors, agriculture, logistics, and services.

Inflation in Nigeria remains high, but the direction is changing. December 2025 data shows prices rising more slowly, food costs easing, and rural pressures declining—an early but important sign that economic stability may be returning.

For the economy and the diaspora alike, this is a development worth watching closely.