Turning Nigeria’s growth upgrade into jobs

When the World Bank raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth projection to 4.4 percent, it offered something the country has been short of in recent years – cautious optimism backed by numbers. In the same vein, the bank estimates that the economy expanded by 4.2 percent in 2025 and will sustain 4.4 percent growth in 2026 and 2027, a pace it describes as Nigeria’s strongest in more than a decade.

After months of macroeconomic turbulence (sharp currency swings, stubborn inflation, and a bruised business climate), any credible signal that reforms are beginning to stabilise the system deserves attention. Growth forecasts influence investor decisions, guide corporate planning, and help shape national mood. But Nigeria has seen enough good numbers in the past to know that the real conversation is not about GDP growth in isolation. It is about what that growth produces – jobs, incomes, dignity, and a measurable rise in living standards.

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On paper, 4.4 percent is respectable, as it also compares favourably with the World Bank’s broader global outlook, which remains weighed down by weak productivity, geopolitical tensions, and fragile trade conditions.

But Nigeria’s problem has never been growth alone but the quality and distribution of growth.

For more than a decade, Nigeria has wrestled with what economists often call jobless growth, periods where output expands, driven mainly by capital-intensive sectors, while employment fails to keep pace with a fast-growing population. The result is familiar, seeing rising GDP headlines alongside swelling unemployment, underemployment, and informality. A country can grow and still leave millions behind.

The World Bank’s own explanation for the improved outlook points to services-led momentum, modest recovery in agriculture, and stronger activity outside crude oil, particularly finance and ICT.

These sectors matter, and their resilience is better than a mono-product economy trapped in oil cycles. Yet services-led growth is not automatically mass job creation, especially when the services that expand fastest are concentrated in urban centres, require specialised skills, or operate with high automation and low labour absorption. In other words, GDP growth can return without poverty retreating.

Another reason for caution is that Nigeria’s upgrade story is not built entirely on domestic strength. Global conditions still shape Nigeria’s fortunes through commodity prices, capital flows, and external demand. Recent shifts, ranging from easing financial conditions in some markets to stronger growth in advanced economies, often create short windows of opportunity for emerging economies like Nigeria.

“With a young and expanding population, that growth rate may be only enough to reduce pressure, not transform lives. A country that adds millions of people to the labour market yearly must aim for growth that is not just faster but also more labour-intensive.”

But Nigeria cannot outsource prosperity to global luck. If growth depends heavily on external tailwinds, then a reversal (trade shocks, geopolitical disruption, or tightening financial conditions) could once again expose the country’s structural weaknesses.

Sustainable prosperity must come from domestic competitiveness (productivity, infrastructure, policy clarity, and human capital).

To the Tinubu administration’s credit, some long-delayed reforms have been pursued. Removing fuel subsidies and attempting to unify the exchange rate were steps many economists considered inevitable. But Nigerians experienced the immediate social costs more than the theoretical benefits. Inflation punished households, and businesses faced higher operating costs, and real wages did not keep up, making ‘reform’ another word for ‘pain’ for millions. That is why the next phase must move beyond stabilisation to production.

Macroeconomic stability is like clearing the road; it is not the destination. If Nigeria does not use this moment to unlock investment, modernise infrastructure, and expand opportunity, then stabilisation risks becoming an end in itself, a hard-won success that still leaves citizens poorer.

Even the World Bank’s optimism comes with caveats. Nigeria’s structural constraints remain stubborn, such as electricity shortages that raise production costs; logistics bottlenecks that weaken competitiveness; insecurity that disrupts farms and trade routes; and policy uncertainty that discourages long-term investment. These are not small issues, as they are the very obstacles that prevent growth from becoming inclusive.

The uncomfortable truth is that 4.4 percent growth is not a magic number for Nigeria. With a young and expanding population, that growth rate may be only enough to reduce pressure, not transform lives. A country that adds millions of people to the labour market yearly must aim for growth that is not just faster but also more labour-intensive.

This is where priorities must shift, and first and foremost, agriculture must become a modern business, not survival work.

The World Bank’s projection includes improved agricultural output. But agriculture only becomes a jobs engine when Nigeria invests in irrigation, storage, rural roads, mechanisation, security, and market access. We know more harvest is good, but more agro-processing is better, which is where sustainable jobs and exports live.

Also, manufacturing needs policy consistency and cheaper energy. Nigeria cannot industrialise with unreliable power, unstable regulations, and high logistics costs. A serious growth-to-jobs strategy means making factories profitable again through industrial clusters, embedded power solutions, port reforms, and a stable FX framework that helps manufacturers plan.

Likewise, skills must meet labour market reality, as Nigeria’s case is painful. We have millions of jobless youths, yet companies complain they cannot find qualified hands. Fixing this requires targeted technical training (welding, fabrication, coding, healthcare support, renewable energy installation, logistics, and creative production) aligned to real demand.

Equally, small businesses must breathe, as micro and small enterprises remain Nigeria’s largest employers. If policy tightness, multiple taxation, and inflation suffocate them, then growth will remain a headline without jobs beneath it.

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There is also the issue of government finance. Nigeria’s revenue challenge is chronic. Debt and interest costs limit spending flexibility. Growth can help expand the tax base, but it does not erase the need for better revenue mobilisation, spending discipline, and accountability.

If growth rises while public finances remain fragile, Nigeria could still face a future where the government cannot fund infrastructure, education, and healthcare at the scale required for national competitiveness. A growing economy with a weak state is not stability but a delayed crisis.

None of this is to dismiss the value of the World Bank’s upgrade. A credible signal that Nigeria is regaining momentum can encourage investment and unlock planning that has been frozen by uncertainty. But Nigerians should treat the 4.4 percent projection for what it truly is – a platform, not a destination.

Nigeria has celebrated growth numbers before, only for ordinary people to feel no change in their daily lives. The opportunity now is to break that pattern by ensuring the next phase of growth is broad-based, labour-absorbing, and resilient.

Growth is returning, but the harder work is ensuring it counts.

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