APC states near 30

The All Progressives Congress (APC) is inching closer to controlling 30 of the 36 states of the federation following Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s exit from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the ‘imminent’ defection of Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Mutfwang formally notified the PDP of his resignation in a letter dated December 29, 2025, but made it public yesterday, paving the way for his registration with the APC, expected to be completed today. Once formalised, Mutfwang’s defection will bring the number of APC governors to 28, equalling the high-water mark previously set by the PDP after the 2003 general elections.

However, unlike the PDP’s rise, the APC’s growth from having 20 governors after the 2023 elections has largely been driven by defections from opposition parties, raising concerns about the concentration of power and the potential drift toward a one-party dominance.

Meanwhile, Kano State Governor Yusuf’s aides have indicated that his registration with the APC is imminent. Should this occur, the ruling party will be in control of 29 states. And with first-time governors such as Dauda Lawal of Zamfara (PDP) and Alex Otti of Abia (Labour Party) reportedly weighing a switch option to the APC, the number may soon surpass 30.

While Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas has formally resigned from the PDP and announced a date for his official defection to the APC, he has yet to undergo the symbolic ceremony of picking up the party’s registration or membership card. The event was shifted following a national emergency around the same time. His formal reception into the APC is expected to be held this month.

Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke, defected from the PDP to the Accord Party last month, had reportedly attempted to join the APC but was blocked due to local political dynamics.

‘Plateau gov set to join APC today’

Governor Mutfwang’s defection comes barely two weeks after APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda announced his impending move to the ruling party. Initial resistance from APC leaders in Plateau State was reportedly resolved following interventions from the presidency, clearing the path for his transition.

In his resignation letter to the ward chairman of the PDP, Ampang West Ward, Mangu LGA, Mutfwang cited the need for “purposeful leadership, clarity of direction, and effective service delivery” as reasons for seeking a new platform. He expressed appreciation to the PDP for providing the opportunity to pursue his political aspirations and thanked party members and supporters for their loyalty.

Mutfwang described the move to the APC as strategically aligned with the development objectives of Plateau State and the Federal Government, adding that it would accelerate growth and deliver tangible dividends of democracy.

In a statement yesterday, his Director of Press and Public Affairs, Gyang Bere, reaffirmed the governor’s commitment to “inclusive governance, unity and breaking barriers of division” as central to achieving sustainable development.

The official presentation of Mutfwang’s APC membership card is scheduled for 11:00am today at Victoria Gowon Hall, Government House, Rayfield. The governor will thereafter visit the APC State Secretariat at Kalwa House, Yakubu Gowon Way, Jos, to interface with party leaders and members.

Defections highlight systemic flaws – Analysts

Political analysts have said the surge of defections to the APC reflects the structural weaknesses of Nigerian politics.

Professor Hassan Saliu, National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association, said the trend underscores that Nigerian politics revolves more around personal interests and power retention than ideological commitment.

“You cannot separate the defection of governors to the ruling party from the nature of Nigerian politics,” Saliu said.

“Political parties in Nigeria are largely indistinct in ideology, making movement from one party to another seamless. Unfortunately, this threatens the checks and balances essential for democracy.”

Saliu warned that a concentration of power across the executive, legislature, and state governments could foster complacency and weaken accountability.

“If a ruling party controls the presidency, National Assembly, governors and even local governments, policies may be pursued without opposition oversight,” he said.

He also raised concerns that voter participation may decline if citizens perceive the system as one-party dominated.

‘Nigeria drifting towards un-official one-party state’

Professor Gbade Ojo of the University of Ilorin observed that Nigeria is drifting toward an unofficial one-party state.

“While the Constitution guarantees a multi-party system, the lack of internal cohesion in opposition parties has facilitated defections, particularly among governors seeking re-election or political relevance ahead of 2027,” he said.

Ojo said: “The trend risks alienating the electorate, distancing governance from the people, and reinforcing the perception that politics is more about self-interest than public service.”

He cautioned that the growing concentration of politicians within one party increases the risk of internal disputes and imposition during primaries. “What is often presented as consensus is sometimes coercion or manipulation, undermining internal democracy and alienating voters,” he added.

‘Opposition should strengthen internal cohesion’

Dr Edun Abdulkareem, Head of Political Science at the University of Ilorin, argued that the APC has not violated democratic norms.

“Lobbying or persuading politicians to join a party is part of politics and not inherently anti-democratic,” he said, stressing that opposition parties must strengthen internal cohesion rather than blame the ruling party for defections.

“We have seen reports where governors were pressured, directly or indirectly, to switch allegiance. Citizens should watch how these dynamics unfold,” he said, citing recent claims by the Bauchi State governor.

He said the absence of a credible opposition remains a major concern. “A strong opposition is crucial to sustaining democracy. Without it, policymaking lacks scrutiny, and citizens have limited avenues to demand accountability,” he said.

Analysts noted that the APC’s rise from having 20 governors after the 2023 elections to a potential 30 by early 2026 underscores its rapid consolidation of power across the federation.

The APC has also achieved a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the National Assembly, equally bolstered largely by defections from opposition parties, particularly the crisis-ridden PDP and the Labour Party. This dominance has strengthened the party’s ability to drive its legislative agenda and coordinate policies with the Federal Government, giving it unprecedented influence over state and national politics.

Analysts observed that the ongoing defections highlight the fragility of opposition parties which continue to grapple with internal crises, leadership disputes and dwindling cohesion. In response, the coalition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as a potential platform to galvanise opposition forces and restore competitive balance.

Observers hope that the ADC will provide the opposition with renewed momentum, particularly in states where defections have eroded their traditional strongholds.

Despite the formation of the ADC, concerns have persisted that the APC’s consolidation may be part of a broader strategy to engineer a one-party state, raising questions about the long-term health of Nigeria’s democracy. Critics argue that as more governors and legislators migrate to the ruling party, the opposition’s capacity to provide effective oversight diminishes, potentially weakening accountability and public participation.

The APC, however, has consistently denied any intention to undermine democracy, with its officials emphasising that lobbying, persuasion and recruitment of politicians from other parties are legitimate political activities within a competitive system.

By Clement A. Oloyede (Abuja), Mumini Abdulkareem (Ilorin) & Dickson S. Adama (Jos)

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