The new wars ahead

It is not news anymore that Gov Sim Fubara and Nyesom Wike, his erstwhile godfather, have returned to the trenches, or Wike has returned to the trenches against Fubara. Wike’s anger seems to be breach of an agreement not known to the public, but now public matter.

According to the FCT Minister who made it clear in his first term he would never be like Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, his predecessor, who attempted to install a successor, Fubara had agreed not to seek another term. To him, by defecting to the APC, the ruling party, and calling himself 001 as well as appearing to prepare for another term, Fubara has committed a great offence. The governor has not said anything on the matter, only saying he was not barking because only dogs did so.

Now, as the war without bullet rages, governance seems set to be stalled again. Since the Rivers State House of Assembly fights on the side of their godfather, Wike, there may be no commissioners, no budget again, and many other bad things. Now, violence is setting in gradually following the attack of Arise Television crew during a live interview.

The gladiators don’t seem perturbed about any level the crisis would get to. Investors may hesitate again to come to a state that says it is back in business while many rather see a state back in violence.

Read also: We won’t repeat 2023 mistake on Fubara in 2027 – Wike

Now, analysts are evaluating the coming wars and the strengths and weaknesses. One gave a SWOT analysis saying Gov Fubara is human, with natural limitations. “He is not accustomed to the brand of politics practised by Wike and does not possess the same hardened political disposition. This is not a moral or intellectual weakness, but a strategic vulnerability in a terrain as ruthless as Nigerian politics. Hence, he requires seasoned minds—not self-seeking loyalists or social media noise makers—to guide his decisions.

He thinks Fubara is not doing that. On the other hand, he casts Wike in the light of a hard boss who crushes all opposition and brooks no nonsense. “Wike, as a hardened actor in politics, has deliberately surrounded himself with other hardened politicians capable of executing hard politics. The politics of toughness does not thrive in isolation—it depends on a network of actors conditioned for confrontation.

“This deliberate association ensures that when difficult, forceful, or system-straining actions are required, there is no shortage of collaborators willing to act decisively. Loyalty is not sentimental; it is operational, built on shared political temperament, mutual exposure to risk, and readiness to bear consequences. Everyone understands the terrain and can be counted on.”

He seems to suggest that Wike will crush Fubara, but will it be so?

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