How agric, industrial sectors pushed Nigeria’s GDP by 3.98% in Q3

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98% (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, a report by the National Bureau of Statistics has stated.

The report said the growth rate is higher than the 3.86% recorded in the third quarter of 2024.

The report said in nominal terms, the economy is N113.587trn and the performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2024, which recorded an aggregate GDP of N96.160trn, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 18.12%.

It noted that during the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 3.79%, an improvement from the 2.55% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 while the growth of the Industrial sector stood at 3.77% from 2.78% recorded in the third quarter of 2024 and the Services sector recorded a growth of 4.15% from 4.97% in the same quarter of 2024.

“In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2025 at 53.02% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024 at 52.93%.

It added that the oil sector recorded an average daily oil production of 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.47 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2024 by 0.17 mbpd and lower than the second quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.68 mbpd by 0.04mbpd.

The report said, “The real growth of the oil sector was 5.84 (year-on-year) in Q3 2025, indicating an increase of 0.18% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (5.66%). Growth decreased by 14.62% points when compared to Q2 2025, which was 20.46%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -5.53% in Q3 2025.

“The Oil sector contributed 3.44% to the total real GDP in Q3 2025, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 at 3.38% and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 4.05%.”

“The non-oil sector grew by 3.91% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q3 2025). This rate was higher by 0.11% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2024, which was 3.79% and higher than the 3.64% recorded in the second quarter of 2025,” the report said.

“This sector was driven in the third quarter of 2025 mainly by Agriculture (Crop production); Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Real Estate; Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Trade; Construction; and Manufacturing, accounting for positive GDP growth.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 96.56% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2025, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2024, which was 96.62% and higher than the second quarter of 2025 recorded as 95.95%,” it added.

Also, the Construction sector grew by 21.23% in nominal terms (year-on-year) in the 2025 third quarter, a decrease of 3.29% points compared to the rate of 24.52% recorded in the same quarter of 2024. Also, there was an increase of 11.65% points when compared to the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

Nominal growth quarter-on-quarter was recorded at 18.03%. Construction contributed 4.18% to nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2025, higher than the 4.07% it contributed a year earlier and higher than the 3.99% contributed to the second quarter of 2025.

In the third quarter of 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of Trade stood at 19.27%. This indicates an increase of 0.14% points when compared to the third quarter of 2024 growth rate of 19.13% and 24.56% points lower than the previous quarter’s growth rate of 43.83%.

Transportation

Six activities make up the Transportation and Storage sector: Road Transport; Rail Transport and Pipelines; Water Transport; Air Transport; Transport Services; and Post and Courier Services.

The sector grew by 24.35% in nominal terms in the third quarter of 2025 (year-on-year). This rate was lower relative to the figure of 37.53% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and higher than 13.67% in the previous quarter.

Four of the six sub-activities under the Transport and Storage industry recorded positive growth rates in the third quarter of 2025. Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 56.11%. Transport activities contributed 0.96% to Nominal GDP in Q3 2025, an increase from the 0.92% recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, and higher than the 0.70% recorded in the second quarter of 2025.

Growth lower than Q2 2025

It would be recalled that in Q2 2025, NBS reported that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.23% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025.

This marks a stronger performance than the 3.48% recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The report shows that aggregate GDP at basic prices stood at N100.73 trillion in nominal terms, compared with N84.48 trillion in Q2 2024, representing a nominal growth of 19.23% year-on-year.

Structural bottlenecks need to be addressed for manufacturers – Uwaleke

Speaking on the report, Executive Director at the Institute of Capital Markets, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Prof. Uche Uwaleke said the Q3 2025 GDP report shows a broadly positive but mixed economic performance, with momentum driven largely by improvements in both the oil and nonoil sectors, though the latter remains the dominant engine of growth.

He added that regrettably, manufacturing continues to grow slowly, at less than 2% with declining GDP share.

He pointed out that addressing structural bottlenecks including energy supply, transportation and access to credit will be critical to boosting industrial capacity and job creation.

“Overall, in order to translate the modest growth into inclusive and sustainable gains, policy attention should prioritise job-intensive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and construction, while expanding critical social investments in education and health.”

He added that the GDP expanded by 3.98% year on year, slightly stronger than Q3 2024, but lower than Q2 2025.

The strongest underpinning came from the nonoil sector which accounted for 96% of total real GDP. Within this space, crop production performed significantly better than last year and showing a strong quarter on quarter boost due to seasonality and improved output. Other key contributors included telecoms, transportation, real estate and financial Institutions which recorded positive real growth.

“It’s instructive to note that the oil sector, though relatively small in its GDP share, also strengthened year on year, on the back of higher crude oil output compared with 2024. However, the sector contracted sharply relative to Q2 2025 due to lower average production, highlighting ongoing volatility,” he added.

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