How APC, ADC benefit from PDP crisis

Political realignments have been quite pronounced in the last one year. At almost every given time, major political parties in the country have witnessed resignations, outright defections, take over of structures, bids to register new parties and other manoeuvres.

These have gone on to the extent that people could not say for certain where their leaders belong and could hardly differentiate between parties due to constant migration of political leaders.

In all the to and fros however, the All Progressive Congress (APC) has been biggest beneficiary followed by the African Democratic Congress (ADC)

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the other has been at the recieving end suffering the worst depletion in its membership.

It has lost a former vice president, the running mate to the presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, many former and sitting governors as well as former and sitting National Assembly members.

The PDP which had 11 governors after the 2023 elections  now has only five with more indicating they want to leave the party.

Most of the governors that shifted base within the period found their way to the APC with the Accord Party surprisingly on the verge of gaining one.

Governors that defected from the PDP to the APC are Umoh Eno of Akwa Ibom, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Douye Diri of Bayelsa and Peter Mbah of Enugu State. Governor of Taraba state, Agbu Kefas has long resigned from the PDP and is only waiting for an auspicious time to join the APC.

There are fears that governors Caleb Muftwang of Plateau as well as the Zamfara governor, Dauda Lawal may also defect. The only PDP governors that seem determined to stay and put the house in order are the governors of Bauchi State, Bala Muhammad and his Oyo State counterpart, Seyi Makinde while Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa appears to be sitting on the fence.

As the PDP crisis which predates the 2023 general elections linger, the party has, apart from the governors, lost more members, including a large number of prominent National Assembly members to the APC.

Prominent among those federal legislators that left the former ruling party to the APC are Senators Agom Jarigbe from Cross River State and Sunday Marshal Katung from Kaduna.

Since 2023 till date, the opposition parties in the House of Representatives have lost no fewer than 66 members to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The worst hit is the main Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has lost 44 members, followed by Labour Party, 14; NNPP, 6, ADC, 1 and YPP 1.

At inauguration in June 2023, the composition of the House of Representatives stood as APC-178; PDP-115; LP, 35; NNPP, 19; APGA, 5, SDP, 2, YPP, 2 and ADC, 2.

Following the gale of defections, the House composition now stand as APC, 246; PDP, 71; LP, 21; NNPP, 13; APGA, 5; SDP, 2; ADC, 1 and YPP, 1.

On Friday, 16 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, led by the speaker of the House of Assembly, Martin Amaewhule also defected from the PDP to the APC.

When the 10th National Assembly was inaugurated on June 13, 2023, the APC held 59 seats in the Senate.

But the party has since expanded its strength to 76 senators, surpassing the two-thirds majority threshold, following a series of defections into its fold.

When the ADC was adopted as the party of choice by former leaders of the PDP, the hitherto quiet party received a fresh lease of life with the influx of prominent PDP members that include former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, former governor of Osun State Rauf Aregbesola and others.

The pattern has been that those leaving the PDP migrate mainly to the APC with few settling in the ADC.

Former Kaduna state governor, Malam Nasir Elrufai moved from APC to the SDP and later to the ADC.

The PDP is the only major party that has not benefitted from the wave of defections but has continued to lose large swathe of members.

A political analyst and a professor of political science, Gbade Ojo, who spoke with our correspondent on the issue, observed that the collapse of the opposition parties is greatly responsible for the high rate of defections saying it has further reduced the quality of public accountability.

“When you look at the parliament, APC now has a simple majority in both the Reps and the Senate. Their oversight function is extremely weak because Mr President appointed the officials they have to go and perform oversight functions on. But the majority of them are now in the ruling party,” he said.

He stressed that the shrinking of alternatives has left Nigerians with limited options.

“The way things are, the choices of Nigerians are getting narrower every day because opposition parties are not well managed. The Labour Party is down. PDP is down. Only ADC is upcoming and we are not hearing from the opposition parties,” he said.

Another commentator who said he was still observing the trend said there are underhand methods being used to lure members of the opposition parties .

“Some of them are not ordinary, that one is obvious, so we understand when some of them who have skeletons in their cupboards leave,” he stated.

The PDP has made several efforts to retain its structure. It has held ward, local government and state Congresses in many states and only last month, held a national convention where members elected a new national chairman.

But the litigation has continued with another group loyal to the FCT minister Nyesom Wike challenging even the process.

Some say even with the holding of the elective convention, that the party has failed to engender the kind of confidence that would have inspired its members to stay.

While there are indications that even those that remain may jump ship at any time.

Analysts say it is the fear that the lingering crises within the party and numerous litigations may put its 2027 candidates in harm’s way legally that has compelled especially governors seeking second terms to seek other platforms.

“They don’t want what happened in Zamfara in 2019 to happen to them so they are running away to shop for stable platforms,’ said a prominent member who doesn’t want to be named.

As it is, only the governors of Zamfara and Rivers among those seeking second terms could be said not to have taken any concrete action towards leaving the PDP as the others Fintiri, Makinde, Bala Mohammed are all serving their second terms as governors of their respective states.

Gradually, the ADC is stepping up as the main opposition party in the country pushing the PDP which has enjoyed that status since it lost the presidential elections in 2015 to a second position.

Recently, the party said it was set to receive over one hundred members of the 10th National Assembly ahead of the 2027 elections.

The APC currently has the majority of members in both upper and lower legislative chambers, with alleged arrangements for more to join the broom party underway.

There are reports that in states like Benue, Kano, Adamawa and Yobe that the ADC has taken root and will grow in a matter of months.

Implications of one way defections

Professor Ojo said the ongoing wave of defections especially into the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) poses serious dangers for Nigeria’s democratic development.

Ojo said the recent mass movements across political camps has far-reaching implications for the strength of opposition parties, the health of parliamentary oversight and the vibrancy of electoral choices available to Nigerians.

He added that defections into the ruling party continue to “tilt the balance dangerously,” especially ahead of the 2027 general election.

“The gale of defection into the ruling party is alarming because the implication is that opposition political parties are getting weaker while the ruling party is gradually getting overloaded,” he said.

He warned that the country risks drifting into a one-party system if the situation persists.

On what can be done to curb the surge in defections, Ojo who was a political science lecturer at the University of Ilọrin, explained that the problem lies deeply in the legal framework regulating party membership.

“There is nothing that can be done because there is freedom of exit and freedom of entry in our political parties. The electoral act gives room for that. Anybody can claim there is a crisis in their party,” he said.

He argued that the weakness of internal administration within opposition parties makes them vulnerable.

Reacting to the issue, Adedayo Adedeji (SAN) said the APC could be gaining from the current crisis within the PDP because it is an internal conflict among members.

“As a rival party, it’s typical for the APC to be pleased with the PDP’s struggles, as this further destabilizes them as an opposition,” he said.

On whether the APC is instigating this crisis, he said there needs to have solid evidence to support such claims, maintaining that the responsibility to promote unity within its rank rests with the PDP.

“I don’t perceive any illegality in the current situation; it’s all a matter of politics. We should allow the politicians to handle their challenges. Importantly, they must not use politics as a means to create division or chaos in Nigeria. The country is greater than any political party or individual politician,” he added.

Similarly, Hameed Ajibola Jimoh Esq said he does not see any breach of the law against the APC over the crisis in the PDP because it was a matter of political tactics for the APC to see such in the main opposition party.

“Although politics is a game of tactics, it must be conducted within the bounds of the law,” he said.

Similarly, E.M.D. Umukoro Esq said, legally speaking and on the surface, there appears to be no illegality when it comes to party members defecting to the APC, after all the constitution allows for freedom of association.

APC cannot reject people coming into their party without legal basis. For instance, are there checks of requirements before accepting new members. If there are no checks, then there is not illegality.

“The PDP can go to court or the police to do a formal complain that they investigate the APC’s involvement in creating crisis. Again, that is neither here nor there because APC is in power and the possibility of making anything out of that is near zero,” he said.

“What it means that in the future, there is going to be an implosion in the APC because of the characters that are coming into the party.”

Political realignments in the past

Though there have been such political realignments in the past, the magnitude and timing differ from what is going on now.

In the past, only elected party members had no cause to desert their parties midway into their reign. In the 2nd Republic, only two governors out of 19 and one deputy governor are known to have left their parties and it happened towards the end of their tenure

They are then governors of Borno state, Mohammed Goni who moved from the Great Nigeria Peoples Party to the Unity Party of Nigeria NPN, Abubakar Rimi who moved to the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) from the Peoples Redemption Party ( PRP) and Akin Omoboriowo, then deputy governor of Ondo State who moved from the UPN) to the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). But they all lost their return bids to office as they couldn’t overshadow the influence of their original parties.

In the current dispensation Chinwoke Mbadinuju of Anambra and his Borno State counterpart, Mala Kachala were forced to leave the PDP and ANPP respectively in 2003 when it was obvious that their parties were bent on not giving them the tickets for their second terms.

In 2007, then vice president Atiku Abubakar, other governors like Joshua Dariye of Plateau; Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia were forced to leave to other parties.

Subsequently politicians have cone to regard parties as mere vehicles for contesting elections with zero emotional attachment attached and change parties at will. The formation of the APC prior to the 2015 elections recorded one of the highest cases of defections within a given period.

By Andrew Agbese, John C. Azu, Itodo Daniel Sule & Mumini Abdulkareem (Ilorin)

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