Ganduje, Barau camps strategise ahead Kano gov’s possible defection

The rumours that Kano State Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, and his political mentor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, are plotting a defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) remain unconfirmed, yet the signs are becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss. Pundits say if the duo eventually cross over, the move may dramatically reshape Kano’s political landscape heading into the 2027 elections. The speculations gained traction in September, when Kwankwaso, fondly called Madugu by his loyalists, openly listed conditions for any potential return to the APC. Speaking while receiving Hon. Hamza Buhari Bakwana and 44 other defectors, the 2023 NNPP presidential candidate said he would only rejoin the ruling party under “strong terms” after what he described as political persecution by actors within the APC. “We are ready to join APC under strong conditions and promises. We will not allow anyone to use us and later dump us. If you are asking us to join APC, you must tell us what NNPP will gain,” Kwankwaso said. His remarks validated long-running whispers of a political realignment and immediately unsettled many APC chieftains eyeing the 2027 governorship ticket in the state. Many opposition governors, particularly from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have in recent times defected to the APC. The ruling party’s leaders have consistently said that more opposition governors would join in the coming months.

The big questions If Yusuf and Kwankwaso defect, the APC hierarchy in Kano will face a major shake-up. Analysts have asked key questions: who becomes the party leader in the state? At present, it is argued that a former governor and APC former National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, holds that position. However, pundits are of the view that Kwankwaso and Governor Yusuf’s entry could alter that equation. There is also a question of what becomes of the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin’s governorship ambition. Observers say Barau’s interest in the governorship of Kano is no longer secret, but that if Governor Yusuf is granted the “right of first refusal” as an incumbent seeking re-election on a new platform, Barau’s chances would be slim. There are also questions on whether those currently in the APC would take a new political direction if they are denied the ticket if Yusuf eventually defects and gets it. Kamalu Bako Lamido, a former aide to Ganduje and an APC mobilisation figure, dismissed the possibility, arguing that Yusuf could not defect without Kwankwaso, and that the latter was merely playing politics to reassure his base. According to Lamido, should Yusuf attempt to defect alone, it would rupture his ties with Kwankwaso and strengthen Ganduje’s influence in the state APC. Dr. Kabiru Sufi, a political scientist, believes the defection is plausible but warns that the party must handle the situation with great tact. He argued that if Yusuf joined the APC, the incumbent advantage could grant him a “right of first refusal” for the 2027 ticket, forcing the party to negotiate carefully with other stakeholders. “Any slip could trigger disaffection that may lead to an exodus from the party,” Sufi cautioned. But Zilyadaini Mustapha Karaye, an APC loyalist and former aide to Ganduje, insists that the odds still favour Senator Barau. According to him, Barau enjoys overwhelming backing from APC members across the 44 LGAs, especially if the party opts for direct primaries. He argued that attempts by party leaders to sideline Barau would fail: “The will of the majority will prevail, even if outside forces attempt to alter the Barau trajectory in 2027.” Several other aspirants, including former Deputy Governor Nasiru Gawuna, Murtala Sule Garo, Abdulkarim Abdulsalam Zaura and Barau Jibrin, are reportedly preparing for the governorship. But this heavy field, coupled with persistent internal divisions, raises concerns among some analysts. Political commentator, Adamu Aminu Fagge, warned that the deepening cracks within the party could escalate into a major crisis if not addressed early. He observed that while some aspirants were bankrolling party activities, others operated behind the scenes to promote their preferred candidates. Meanwhile, many “fence sitters”, he argued, were waiting for the highest bidder. “Their loyalty is for sale, and whoever wins them over controls a formidable bloc,” Fagge said. Analysts agree that interesting times lie ahead for Kano APC and that a Yusuf-Kwankwaso defection could energise the party but also threaten the ambitions of other stakeholders.

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