How terror is quietly creating a new poverty crisis in Nigeria

Several countries currently bear the scars of terror wars. They include Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, South Sudan, and Iraq, among others. The wounds have been deep, devastating, and long-lasting in impact. The central consequence of these wars is the deepening of poverty or the entrenchment of generational poverty. Nigeria faces this spectre now. For more than a decade, Nigeria has been confronted by an expensive, exhausting war against terrorism and banditry. It is an existential threat that, whichever way the country handles it, the outcomes are unpalatable. As the government pours resources into fighting insecurity, a deeper economic crisis is unfolding: poverty is growing not only because of the conflict itself, but also because development spending is being displaced by the rising costs of the war. In October, the World Bank said about 139 million Nigerians were in poverty because of the ongoing economic reforms. That is not the only vehicle now transporting Nigerians into poverty. This war is complicating the misfortunes of Nigerians. Some of the resources that could have been spent on improving their lot must now be deployed to prosecute the war. Yet the alternative of not committing resources to war for them is even scarier. The wars in the above countries and others deepened poverty through five mechanisms: destruction of assets, the backbone of the economy. When farms, homes, markets, and factories are destroyed or made inaccessible, that is the beginning of poverty because the basic fabric of the economy is disorganised. Others are the displacement of people, which pushes them further into long-term poverty; the collapse of public services such as education, health, water, electricity, and eventually investment flight. When foreigners can no longer bear the risk, they move their assets to safer locations. Finally, wars against error, like other wars, cost money to prosecute. The money that could have been invested in other things goes into war financing. All the above scenarios are visible realities in several parts of Nigeria today. From the North East, North West, and North Central zones to other parts, perhaps in lesser degrees, millions of families have been driven from their homes by armed groups. Displacement creates instant poverty because farms are abandoned, livestock stolen, homes burned, and shops destroyed. So, for a household that once lived modestly but securely, everything it ever had could just be wiped off overnight. This is a common scenario today in the areas above, and the threat is spreading. In all cases mentioned above, human capital is one of the biggest casualties. These wars lead to lost generations by inflicting irreparable damage to education in the affected zones. Terrorism has turned schooling into a risky activity. With the surge in kidnapping of school children, including those in nursery, parents may resort to keeping their children at home out of fear, even when schools reopen in the affected communities; teachers will run away, as classrooms remain unsafe or abandoned. Therefore, as in other countries, Nigeria is currently creating a generation of children who will grow into adulthood without basic literacy or numeracy. This will be part of the lost generation. It is not just a social problem; it is also an economic time bomb. A nation’s competitiveness depends on its human capital. If millions of children lose their chance at education, the country loses its chance at prosperity. The full import of the current developments will manifest in due season, a couple of years from now, when the gaps will be felt. Likely, without help, a poor, illiterate generation will produce a worse generation. This is while this kind of war breeds generational poverty, as the low levels of living are being passed from one generation to the next, as the conflict lasts. The tragedy facing the nation does not end there with displacements. The country is constantly saddled with the cost of supporting these displaced populations, in what has become known as IDP camps. Feeding, housing, and providing emergency healthcare for these populations represent a significant portion of the cost, all representing funds that could have been deployed to pursue development programmes. In Syria, while poverty in the country was on a downward trend by 2011 at lower than 20 per cent, the war deepened the country’s poverty as it lost 80 per cent of its electricity generation, over 50 per cent of its population fled the country, with the collapse of industry and agriculture. The consequence, poverty rose as high as 90 per cent in some areas, according to reports. For us as Nigerians, these are facts that we wish would not become realities in our case.

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