Democracy Under Pressure: Threats to Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

As Nigeria transitions into full election mode for the 2027 general elections, the political temperature is heating up at a scale that puts the country’s democracy under intense pressure. Democratic institutions are struggling to respond to pressures emanating from the actions of political actors. The political landscape has been marked by heightened elite bargaining, strategic political realignments, and premature campaigns. These developments reflect a troubling pathology of Nigeria’s electoral politics, which relegates governance for the advancement of electoral ambition.

Consistent with historical precedent in previous election seasons, political actors are spending less time on governance and paying more attention to getting elected. Policy actions and government programs are structured to advance political aspirations ahead of the elections. Even though the ban on political campaigns has not been lifted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), overt campaign activities began immediately after the 2023 elections. This early campaign reveals weak accountability mechanisms that perpetuate a culture of impunity, threatening the credibility of the forthcoming elections.

INEC is scheduled to conduct three strategically important elections in 2026. They include the Federal Capital Territory Area Council elections and the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States. Early signs indicate that the FCT Area Council and Osun elections will be highly competitive and politically contentious, given their strategic importance for the 2027 elections and the disposition of political actors determined to consolidate control of states. These elections will test INEC’s resilience and commitment to protecting its independence, especially the transparency of the results management process. The manner in which these elections are conducted will shape public confidence ahead of 2027. It may increase citizens’ enthusiasm or deepen voter disengagement. While the National Assembly is yet to conclude amendments to the Electoral Act, there are indications that the proposed Electoral Act 2026 will mandate compulsory electronic transmission of results, amongst other transformative reforms.

Recent elections have increasingly failed to serve as instruments of public choice. Instead, they have become tools exploited by captured institutions for regime protection or consolidation of incumbent power. Since assuming office, the new Chairman of INEC has expressed commitment and readiness to rewrite Nigeria’s electoral history by ensuring the integrity of the 2027 elections surpasses previous elections. The chairman has emphasized that “the 2027 General Election must be free and fair and be a watershed moment in Nigeria’s history”. This rhetoric, though customary of previous INEC leadership, presents a critical opportunity to restore the lost confidence in the electoral process. However, the ambitious goal remains severely constrained by a constellation of systemic, political, and security-related threats, including the following:

Possible elimination of electoral competition

The legitimacy of elections is derived from competition and contestation. Where competition is eliminated, election lose their democratic ingredient. One of the most profound threats to the 2027 elections is the systematic erosion of political competition through induced defections from political parties and the incremental decimation of opposition parties. This distortion of the political landscape could disincentivize public participation in the 2027 elections, as voters will have limited political choices. Constricting the political space and the gradual descent towards a one-party state threaten Nigeria’s democratic trajectory ahead of the 2027 elections. When political pluralism is overtly or covertly removed from electoral politics, authoritarianism creeps in, and it diminishes the legitimacy of electoral outcomes.

Deepening electoral cynicism

While the majority of Nigerians are interested in voting in 2027, a substantial number of Nigerians believe their vote makes no difference and that electoral outcomes are predetermined. This is largely driven by what I regard as a triangle of compromise involving three major institutions: security agencies, INEC, and the judiciary. This crisis of confidence is not unfounded. Instances of conflicting results from the same polling units, bypass of the Bimodal Voter Authentication System (BVAS), and tampering with election results drive distrust in election outcomes. Political elites continue to affirm the narrative that voters don’t matter with the manner in which the defections to the ruling party have been framed. The party defections seem to be driven by the belief that joining the ruling party guarantees electoral victory in 2027, regardless of voter choices.

Insecurity and escalating tensions

The current multi-dimensional security crisis poses a serious threat to the 2027 elections. As the National Voting Intentions Round 1 Survey shows, insecurity may drive low voter turnout in 2027 despite high voting interest. Insurgency, banditry, communal conflicts, separatist agitations, and organized criminal violence continue to overstretch Nigeria’s security architecture. This expanded geography of insecurity undermines the likelihood of a safe and peaceful environment for elections. INEC may be constrained to organize elections in volatile and ungoverned spaces, while voters in conflict zones may be disenfranchised. Where insecurity impedes the deployment of election personnel, materials, and security assets, the credibility and inclusiveness of the electoral process are fundamentally compromised.

Although these factors pose a threat to the 2027 elections, practical actions can be taken to address them. Whether Nigeria slides into full-blown electoral authoritarianism or advances toward democratic legitimacy depends on the constellation of three interdependent forces, namely;

An Activist and Principled INEC

Encouragingly, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joash Amupitan, SAN, has outlined five non-negotiable pillars to guide the Commission’s work: institutional independence and freedom from interference; fairness and equal treatment of all political parties and candidates; credibility in the eyes of Nigerians and the international community; transparency across every stage of the electoral process; and inclusivity to ensure that no eligible voter is disenfranchised. If implemented, these standards will radically transform the electoral process, restore public confidence, and place Nigeria back on the path of democratic progress.

However, achieving these milestones will require intentional and courageous leadership from INEC. The Commission must exercise its regulatory powers cautiously, especially in matters of party registration, recognition of party leadership, and the monitoring and validation of the list of candidates. These issues have been a major driver of distrust amongst stakeholders. Equally important is the urgent need to fix the election results management value chain, which currently suffers from systemic vulnerabilities. The recurrence of multiple results emanating from the same polling units and the conflicting results on the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) must become relics of the past.

A determined citizenry committed to defending its franchise

The most potent antidote to election manipulation is citizens’ vigilance. When democracy is under pressure, citizens must rise to defend it. This onerous responsibility begins with turning up to vote and ensuring vigilance to prevent elections from being stolen. Unpopular and insecure political actors are deeply threatened by high voter turnout because it limits opportunities for election manipulation. Political elites benefit most when citizens disengage from elections. They exploit two most potent tools: fear and distrust, to discourage participation. They amplify insecurity and accounts of election manipulation to convince the public that votes don’t count, even in the face of impactful electoral reforms. Therefore, the credibility of the 2027 elections will depend on the collective resolve of Nigerians to defend their votes. Every voter must approach the polling unit on election day not only with the intention to vote but with the resolve to remain present, observe the process, and ensure that accreditation, voting, counting, and results transmission are conducted strictly in accordance with the electoral legal framework.

A patriotic and non-aligned security architecture

The credibility of elections is threatened when security agencies fail to uphold neutrality, professionalism, and fidelity to the constitution. It doesn’t matter whether all the other elements of electoral integrity are in place. As long as security agencies maintain a partisan posture, then the next election may be considered compromised. The Interagency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) must now retool and adopt the principle of patriotic non-alignment, which promotes an election security framework that is hinged on the respect for the rule of law and commitment to constitutional fidelity and Nigerian citizens rather than loyalty to the ruling political elite, political party, or incumbent authority in any strata of society. Without a patriotic and non-aligned security framework, even the most well-planned elections will remain vulnerable to manipulation and coercion.

Samson Itodo is an election, democracy, and public policy enthusiast. Itodo serves as the Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Principal Partner of the Election Law Center and Chairperson of the African Union Advisory Group on AI in Peace, Security and Governance. He is also a member of the Kofi Annan Foundation board and the Board of Advisers of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Comments and feedback to [email protected]

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