Again, Nigeria’s OPEC Oil Output Slips Despite FG’s Assurances

• Wood Mackenzie: Nation’s crude production to exceed 2m bpd in 2026

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in December 2025, reversing the modest recovery recorded in the previous month, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) based on direct communication from member countries.

Figures from OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released yesterday showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1.422 million barrels per day in December, down from 1.436 million barrels per day in November.

The month-on-month drop of about 14,000 barrels per day underscored the fragility of Nigeria’s output recovery, despite sustained efforts to stabilise production through improved security around oil infrastructure and gradual restoration of shut-in fields.

Although December’s output remained broadly in line with Nigeria’s 2025 average, it fell short of the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.  The data highlighted the continued impact of operational disruptions, ageing infrastructure and deferred investments, which have constrained the country’s ability to sustain higher output levels on a consistent basis.

Elsewhere across Africa, crude oil production trends were mixed in December. Algeria, Africa’s largest producer after Nigeria, recorded an increase in output to about 972,000 barrels per day, up from 968,000 barrels per day in November, reflecting stable operations and incremental gains.

Libya also saw production rise, with output climbing to roughly 1.371 million barrels per day in December, supported by improved security conditions at key oilfields and export terminals.

In contrast, smaller producers posted marginal changes. Congo increased output to about 281,000 barrels per day, while Equatorial Guinea edged up to 46,000 barrels per day. Gabon’s production was broadly stable over the period, reflecting limited capacity for significant short-term expansion.

Also, OPEC has said world oil demand would rise at a similar pace in 2027 as this year and published data indicating a near balance between supply and demand in 2026, contrasting with other forecasts of a major glut.

The 2027 forecast is in line with the oil cartel’s view that oil demand will rise at a relatively robust rate, and that moves to cleaner fuels will take place more slowly than some predictions.

OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, close to the 1.38 million bpd growth expected this year, it said in the monthly report on its website. The outlook is OPEC’s first 2027 projection in its monthly report.

OPEC+ pumped 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, down 238,000 bpd from November, driven by reductions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela, despite the output hike agreement in place for December, OPEC said in the report.

The report forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from last month and close to what OPEC+ produced in December.

Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream oil and gas sector is entering 2026 with renewed momentum, according to Wood Mackenzie’s outlook for the region, with Nigeria emerging as one of the principal drivers of the recovery.

Wood Mackenzie projects that for the first time since 2015 regional oil and gas output will exceed 6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, underscoring a sharp turnaround from the production lows recorded in 2022.

Nigeria features prominently in this outlook, with Wood Mackenzie describing the country’s upstream growth prospects as the strongest seen in several years. Indigenous operators are at the centre of this resurgence, executing aggressive drilling programmes that are expected to lift liquids production beyond 2 million barrels per day in 2026.

If achieved, this would return Nigeria to output levels last seen in 2019, reflecting improved operational performance and a more stable investment environment.

The Wood Mackenzie outlook also highlighted Nigeria’s central role in the renewed scramble for upstream acreage across West Africa. The country plans to offer 50 oil and gas blocks, making it one of the most active licensing jurisdictions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Improved fiscal terms and more flexible licensing arrangements are helping to revive investor appetite, supported by advances in geological understanding, basin modelling and deepwater drilling technologies.

While African-focused operators are expected to prioritise onshore and shallow-water assets that can be commercialised quickly, major international players are likely to target high-risk, high-reward deepwater opportunities, it said.

Although production growth in 2026 will also be supported by major start-ups in Uganda and Angola, Wood Mackenzie’s assessment placed Nigeria at the heart of the region’s upstream recovery.

Rising output, expanding local participation and an ambitious licensing agenda collectively position Nigeria as a key pillar of Sub-Saharan Africa’s oil and gas outlook as the region enters a new growth phase, the report added.