2027: Who delivers next Rivers State governor?

With the general elections due in just a year’s time and the next electoral season warming up accordingly, there are questions, riddles and speculations rearing up their heads each new day over possible tendencies and outcomes. This consideration dominates public attention simply due to the apparently unending tussle for control of the state’s political soul, and has crystalised around the question of who becomes the governor of Rivers State come 2027.

While ordinarily this eventuality should have sailed through the traditional path of backroom, in party politics, the case of Rivers State governorship in 2027 remains a high-octane issue given the daily power tussle between the two protagonists, namely, Nyesom Wike the former governor of the state and now minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara.

A power tussle that started in 2023 may now be entering a most defining stage, with the matter of who governs the state come 2027 serving as the ultimate prize between them.  In one vein is the expectation that Fubara should be allowed to serve a second term in office in line with the rotation principle that had been a fixture in Nigerian politics. In the other vein is the vehement opposition to such a disposition by Wike, who is not only hell bent to scuttle such a dispensation but has mobilised massively to effect his agenda of dictating who governs the state come 2027.

To actualise his mission, he recently embarked on a campaign tour to all the local government headquarters in Rivers State, apparently to stir up his foot soldiers.  Soon after the tour, his loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly commenced a formal impeachment exercise against Governor Fubara.

In the light of the foregoing, whoever shall emerge as the governor of the state in 2027 shall be determined by the play-out of at least four factors. These are the sway of votes in accordance with the body language of President Bola Tinubu, the swing of the popular vote by the Rivers State electorate, the endearment of Siminalayi Fubara to Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) hierarchy, as well as the proclivities of the political structure of Nyesom Wike.

With respect to the body language of Tinubu, and indeed, with any president in office, it has been the tradition for minority sections of the country like Rivers State to align their political loyalties with the federal power structure as much as is possible in order to survive the vicissitudes of the vicious majority-minority power-play that is the major drawback of the calculus of governance in Nigeria. Hence for Rivers State, this tendency is expected to play out in 2027, just as its leading political tendencies are aligning accordingly.

Another factor of expecting a significant Tinubu sweep of Rivers State votes in 2027 is the ongoing domino-style capitulation of the hitherto opposition governors into the APC and rise of the concern that Nigeria has now become a one-party state. With 30 out of the 36 governors in the country now members of the APC, including Fubara, Tinubu losing election there remains a long shot.

However, while the presidential election may have the odds in its favour, that is not the same with the governorship situation as the two main campaigners for Tinubu are daggers drawn at each other’s throat.  In the course of the contest between Fubara and Wike, the state has suffered significant setbacks in administration, especially with the recent six-month suspension of the governor and others by Tinubu, as well as the former’s manifest emasculation on return to office.

Incidentally, Fubara’s return to office has been met with one obstacle or another, with the latest salvoes by his detractors being an open animosity and the commencement of impeachment proceeding against him by the Wike’s loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA) last Thursday.

With Tinubu having the feuding duo of Fubara and Wike in his camp it would seem that it is ‘uhuru’ for his electoral fortunes come 2027. However, such a perception remains significantly flawed and hence compromised as the proverb that a house divided against itself hardly stands, is also true in political activities, especially in electoral exercises.

That is why TInubu and the APC hierarchy need to resolve the conundrum in Rivers State as soon as possible, first by clarifying the issues in proper perspective and doing the needful.  For instance, the Rivers State crisis has degenerated into an open war between the Fubara and Wike camp with the RSHA commencing a formal impeachment process against Fubara. Considering that most of the members of the RSHA and the governor are now members of the APC, the impeachment move against Fubara implies several negatives for the APC as its borders on anti- party activity.

First, it implies that the belligerent newly defected RSHA members are continuing their grouse against Fubara from their former party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC. This means that the APC is now inheriting whatever baggage the defecting RSHA members are coming to its fold with. This makes them dyed-in-the-wool turncoats whose mission in defection was simply to adopt a subterfuge for advancing interests that may not be primarily those of their new party the APC.

Beyond the foregoing is the more disturbing portend of the APC losing control of a high value state as Rivers State in case the impeachment exercise against Fubara succeeds in ousting him from office.

More pointed is the question of whether a Wike hand-picked replacement for Fubara would serve the interests of the APC better than the incumbent, who is already the party leader in Rivers State.

It is, therefore, of more utility for the APC to throw its weight behind the incumbent Siminalayi Fubara to guarantee his return for a second term in office with further dividends for the party.

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