Nigeria imports N12.8trn worth of petrol in 15 months

As Nigeria struggles to ramp up local refinery of Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) otherwise known as petroleum, at least N12.8trn worth of the product was imported into the country from August 2024 to October 2025, analysis of the factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has shown.

Using an average landing cost of N829.77 per litre, the figure was arrived at from computation of the average daily litre the NMDPRA said was imported which was summed up to be 15,435,000,000 (billion).

A breakdown showed that the highest importation was in September 2024 when there was no local production with importation pegged at 1.52bn litres followed by August 2024 with 1.38bn litre and December 2024 with 1.31bn litres.

For October 2025, 1.17bn litres of the product was imported and 1.12bn litres in November. But in January 2025, the number reduced drastically to 765.7 million litres but it rose marginally to 770 million litres in February and 889.7 million litres in March.

April also saw the million benchmarks with 861 million litres but May saw a dramatic increase to 1.19 billion litres while reducing further to 978 million litres in June and an increase to 1.11bn in July before dropping to 818.4 million litres in August, 663 million litres in September and 855.6 million litres in October.

Local supply

On the other hand, local supply was 7,208,280,000 (7.2billion) litres during the period which were all supplied from the Dangote Refinery.

The factsheet showed that there was no contribution from the local refinery in the month of August 2024 but for September 2024, the Dangote Refinery produced a total of 102 million liters which improved to 300.7 million litres in October 2024 and 558 million litres in November 2024.

There was a drop to 306.9 million litres in December 2024 but an increase to 592.1 million litres by 2025 in January and 694.4 million litres in February.

Also, March saw the supply of 709.9 million litres which dropped to 645 million litres in April, 573.5 million litres in May and 543 in June.

For July, the supply further reduced to 511.5 million litres but went up to 613.8 million litres in August and a drop to 528 million litres in September then slight increase to 529.48 million litres in October.

The factsheet showed that the country is still heavily reliant on importation of the PMS amidst push for an end to importation to support the expanding local refinery.

Dangote had on several occasions said the 650,000-bpd refinery can supply the Nigerian market.

However, industry stakeholders have said banning petroleum import would encourage monopoly in the sector which is antithetical to Nigeria’s energy security.

It would be recalled that the federal government had imposed a 15% ad valorem tariff on imported PMS and diesel.

The announcement, through a letter from the presidency addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and NMDPRA, was greeted by widespread opposition forcing the government to reverse the decision.

The argument from those opposing the move was that Nigeria has not achieved self-sufficiency in local production.

Delays affecting our operation to scale up production

Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has said the delays it faced in vessel clearance is affecting its operations and customers.

In a letter by the Chief Executive Officer Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, David Bird, addressed to the Authority Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Bird said the delay is adding unnecessary costs and inefficiencies to its operations.

While stating that the refinery is ready and able to supply 1.5 billion litres of PMS per month, he sought the full support of NMDPRA to allow Dangote refinery to import its crude, feedstocks and blending components unhindered as well as support the lifting of its products by vessel.

“We continue to experience delays in vessel clearance which impacts not only the refinery operations but also our customers, adding unnecessary costs and inefficiencies. We are writing to confirm our commitment to supply Nigerian domestic PMS requirements. Dangote refinery is ready and able to supply 1.5 bln litres of PMS per month (50mln litres/day) in December and January followed by 1.7 bln litres per month (57mln litres/day) from February 2026 onwards.

“We seek your support to host NMDPRA officials onsite at our refinery from 1st December to validate and publish our daily supply volumes. In the spirit of full transparency to the public we are willing to publish our daily production and stock volumes (online and print media).

“We will appreciate your usual consideration and support to secure Nigeria’s domestic fuel security and abundance. Please allow the ‘Nigeria First’ policy to work to the benefits of all Nigerians,” the letter read.

Why Nigeria can’t stop fuel importation Speaking with Daily Trust, the Director, Institute for Energy and Extractive Industry Law, Henry Adigun, said the country needs fuel importation for now as the local refining capacity is not yet diverse.

He said Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) allows the regulator to grant import licenses to companies with active local refining licenses or a proven track record of international crude oil and petroleum products trading for product shortfalls.

This section, he said, empowers the regulator to address potential shortages by allowing authorized entities to import fuel.

He noted that those importing fuel at the moment naturally patronise the Dangote refinery when the price is better than going outside the country to import fuel. Adigun, however, cautioned that it was not feasible that the Dangote refinery would continue to crash petroleum products prices without corresponding market factors.

He argued that the cost of crude, whether supplied locally or in naira, would be priced according to the international benchmark.

He added that the recent reduction in petrol prices by Dangote Petroleum Refinery was due to the decline in global crude oil prices and the potential reintroduction of a “crude-for-naira” agreement.

It would be recalled that the price cut, announced by Dangote Refinery on April 10, reduced the ex-depot petrol price from N880 per litre to N865.

Adigun commended Dangote Refinery for its proactive decision, suggesting that the Federal Government’s stance on crude-for-naira deals might have contributed to the price reduction.

On his part, a renowned professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, said the data showed the commencement of domestic petroleum product distribution by the Dangote Refinery has transformed Nigeria’s downstream market by reducing import dependence, enhancing supply stability, and testing regulatory frameworks under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

He said the shift has also offered macroeconomic benefits such as foreign exchange savings and inflation moderation, while also presenting sectoral challenges and risks that require vigilant oversight and infrastructure improvements.

He added that in the long run, import marketers may lose market share to domestic offtakers, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) faces strategic choices regarding crude supply partnerships and regional trade could benefit from exports to West and Central Africa.

He, however, said risks still remain for the domestic market and it includes; crude feedstock reliability, regulatory overreach, market concentration, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

“Priority actions include operationalizing transparent supply arrangements, enforcing PIA provisions, de-bottlenecking logistics, overseeing competition, and ensuring data transparency through public dashboards. Key metrics to monitor include refinery output, pricing dispersion, import volumes, scarcity incidents, and logistics key performance indicators (KPIs).”

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