ADC ticket: Obi, Kwankwaso to battle Atiku

Indications have emerged that a joint presidential ticket involving former presidential candidates Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is being considered ahead of the 2027 general elections, with the pair expected to challenge former Vice President Atiku Abubakar for the presidential ticket of the coalition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC), amid renewed efforts to unify the opposition.

Obi and Kwankwaso, who were the presidential candidates of the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) respectively in the 2023 elections, had attempted to form an alliance before that poll. The talks collapsed following disagreements over who would be the candidate and the running mate.

The renewed push for a joint ticket comes against the backdrop of the 2023 election, which saw both men post strong but regionally concentrated performances. Obi secured over six million votes nationwide, winning in the Federal Capital Territory, Lagos and the states in the South-East, while also mobilising an unprecedented youth-driven movement across urban centres to come third. Kwankwaso, on his part, delivered a decisive victory in Kano State, reaffirming his control of one of Nigeria’s largest voting blocs through his Kwankwasiyya political movement to come fourth.

Daily Trust gathered at the weekend that fresh efforts to reconcile both camps are being spearheaded by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is said to be convinced that a united Obi-Kwankwaso ticket offers the opposition a better chance of mounting a credible challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.

Multiple sources familiar with the talks said Obasanjo has been able to tentatively persuade Kwankwaso to accept to be Obi’s running mate.

While Obi formally joined the ADC penultimate week and had earlier indicated his intention to be on the ballot in 2027, Kwankwaso, who remains in the NNPP, told his supporters at the weekend that he was in discussions with political leaders and would soon announce his next line of action.

Kwankwaso had also, through one of his close aides, confirmed to Daily Trust that “high-level discussions with key stakeholders across the political spectrum” were ongoing.

“While our party has not yet finalised its position or reached a full consensus on our path forward, we can confirm that we are engaged in high-level discussions with key stakeholders across the political spectrum, including political parties and individuals.

“Our position will very soon be known to the public. We firmly believe that Nigeria urgently requires a departure from the current environment characterised by rampant insecurity and the widespread collapse of essential systems.

“We kindly urge the public to remain patient and to continue supporting our movement as we work tirelessly towards building a better Nigeria for all citizens,” the aide said.

The aide was responding to Daily Trust’s enquiries on a meeting Kwankwaso reportedly held last week with Obasanjo and Obi. While the former Kano governor neither confirmed nor denied the meeting, sources said two strategic options were being pursued to ensure an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket features prominently in the 2027 race.

According to sources, the first plan is to clinch the ADC presidential ticket by confronting Atiku directly at the party’s primaries.

“Kwankwaso went to Abeokuta to meet Baba Obasanjo last week and Baba told him to join the ADC and accept to be Obi’s vice. This is similar to what General Ibrahim Babangida told him weeks earlier, although IBB did not go as far as discussing the vice-presidential slot. He only advised him to join the ADC,” one of the sources said.

“The thinking is that the political momentum and current dynamics, both local and international, favour an Obi presidency. Baba Obasanjo is a key promoter of Obi’s ambition. Even Atiku has acknowledged in the past that it was Baba who recommended Obi to him as vice-presidential candidate in 2019.

“The goal is to get Obi and Kwankwaso to work together in order to challenge Atiku for the ADC ticket. They know Atiku will not back down easily, and that the internal dynamics of party politics favour him. There is hardly a chance that either Obi or Kwankwaso, acting alone, can defeat Atiku at the primaries. But with both of them pulling their weight together, they believe they may stand a chance,” the source added.

Daily Trust, however, gathered that promoters of the proposed ticket are also considering a fallback option anchored on securing a platform outside the ADC should the primaries prove unfavourable.

“They have decided that if they fail to secure the ADC ticket, knowing how formidable Atiku is within the party, they will move to another political party to actualise the joint ticket,” another source said.

Efforts to get a reaction from the Atiku Media Office were unsuccessful as of the time of filing this report. Calls to Atiku’s media advisers, Paul Ibe and Phrank Shaibu, did not connect.

Similar efforts to get a reaction from the national coordinator of the Obidient’s Movement, Yunusa Tanko, who often speaks for Obi, was unsuccessful as of the time of filing this report.

Kwankwaso demands presidential or vice-presidential slot

During an interaction with his supporters at the weekend, Kwankwaso said any merger or coalition discussion must come with a clear offer of either the presidential or vice-presidential slot.

Kwankwaso also used the gathering to respond to reports of an alleged plan by Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC). He denied any pact with his political protégé to move to the ruling party and said he was opposed to such a move.

“The Federal Government and the APC reached out to us. We sat down and discussed, but this party or movement is not about me, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso alone or my personal interest,” he said.

“I asked them what they had to offer me, the party chairman, the executives and our supporters, but they could not provide concrete answers.”

Kwankwaso dismissed claims that the NNPP was limited to Kano, insisting that the party had national structures and offices across the country.

“At the national level, our hope is to merge with others, whether under the NNPP or any other platform. But those who want us must agree that I, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, will be number one or number two.”

Ticket strong, but Atiku factor key – Analysts

Political analysts say the renewed push for an Obi–Kwankwaso joint ticket draws its strength largely from the electoral lessons of the 2023 presidential election, but warn that the ambition could flounder if Atiku remains on the ballot or if the opposition once again fails to unite under a single platform.

Commenting on the speculation, Prof. Abubakar Kari, a political analyst at the University of Abuja, said an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would be “mouthwatering” given the political stature of both men.

He said Obi’s 2023 campaign demonstrated his capacity to mobilise youths, urban voters and the South-east, while Kwankwaso remained one of the most visible and effective mobilisers in the North.

“If the two are able to pool their resources, it would be a very formidable ticket. It may not automatically displace the APC, but it would certainly give the ruling party a serious run for its money,” Kari said.

He, however, noted that Atiku’s entrenched position within the ADC posed a significant challenge, adding that the opposition risked repeating the mistakes of 2023 if it failed to avoid a fragmented contest.

“If the ADC conducts open and competitive primaries involving Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso and even someone like Rotimi Amaechi, it would be a huge propaganda victory for the party, especially when compared to the APC, where the ticket has virtually been handed to the president.”

Kari warned that the opposition would be “shooting itself in the foot” if Atiku emerged as the ADC candidate and Obi and Kwankwaso decided to exit the party to run on another platform.

“If Atiku is on the ballot, he will likely be the only northern Muslim candidate. Given the natural predisposition of many Nigerian voters to religious and regional considerations, many northern Muslim voters may gravitate towards him rather than an Obi–Kwankwaso ticket or even Tinubu–Shettima. This would further split opposition votes.”

According to him, the most favourable scenario for an Obi–Kwankwaso ticket would be one in which Atiku does not contest.

Dr Sam Amadi of the Abuja School of Political and Social Thought said the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket had been favoured since 2023 largely because of Kwankwaso’s dominance in Kano, one of the country’s largest electoral states.

Amadi added that the ticket’s national competitiveness would depend on broader northern alliances.

“If the ticket also enjoys the backing of figures like El-Rufai, Atiku or other northern heavyweights across the North-central, North-east and North-west, then it becomes a very solid ticket that could seriously threaten President Tinubu,” he said.

He cautioned that moving the ticket outside the ADC could again fragment opposition votes.

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