Saraki: Nigeria’s Reforms Will Collapse Under Public Pressure Unless They Improve Living Conditions, Create Jobs

Wale Igbintade

Former President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, has warned that Nigeria’s recent economic reforms will collapse under public pressure unless they translate into concrete improvements in living conditions.Saraki insisted that adjustment without visible social benefits is neither sustainable nor acceptable.

He spoke at the launch of the Ignite Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 Report, themed “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026: From Adjustment to Advantage,” where he said the country has reached a critical turning point after years of difficult but necessary economic restructuring.He noted that reforms such as removing fuel subsidies, unifying the foreign exchange rate, tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, and early efforts to restore fiscal credibility have tested public trust and social resilience.

However, he said they have also laid the foundation for a more transparent and competitive economy.“The question before us is not whether reform was necessary—it was inevitable. The real question is whether Nigeria can now translate reform into inclusive growth,” Saraki said.He stressed that economic success cannot be measured solely by macroeconomic indicators, warning that reforms would not endure unless Nigerians begin to feel tangible improvements in their daily lives.

According to him, the actual test of reform lies in creating jobs, stabilising prices, protecting incomes, and expanding opportunities.“Nigerians must see reforms reflected in more affordable food, reliable energy, better transport, functional schools and hospitals, and dignified work for our youth,” he said, adding that adjustment without improvement in living conditions cannot be sustained.

Referencing projections in the outlook report, Saraki said Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow between 3.5 per cent and 4.2 per cent in 2026, driven mainly by non-oil sectors such as services, agriculture, telecommunications, trade, and a gradual recovery in manufacturing.While inflation has remained elevated in the short term, he noted that the report projects it to moderate to the mid-teens by 2026, subject to sustained monetary discipline, improved food supply chains, and exchange-rate stability.He said reforms in the foreign exchange market have improved transparency and liquidity, with the naira expected to experience greater stability rather than artificial strength, supported by remittances, autonomous inflows, and enhanced oil and gas receipts.

However, Saraki cautioned that despite improving macroeconomic fundamentals, the quality of growth remains fragile.

The former Senate President identified Nigeria’s weak revenue base as a significant structural vulnerability, arguing that the country’s economic challenge lies more in debt service capacity than in the size of its debt stock.

He said government revenue, currently below 10 per cent of GDP, lags behind peer economies and constrains fiscal sustainability.

According to him, ongoing tax reforms, digital compliance initiatives, and savings from subsidy removals provide an opportunity to lift revenue to between 12 and 13 per cent of GDP by 2026, and he stresses that revenue-led consolidation is preferable to indiscriminate spending cuts.

Saraki also raised concerns about job creation, warning that economic growth without employment would worsen inequality and social tension, especially as Nigeria adds more than four million young people to its labour force annually. “Economic growth without jobs is not prosperity; it is arithmetic,” he said.

He identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, energy, digital services, the creative economy, infrastructure, and housing as priority sectors capable of delivering inclusive growth.

Saraki described agriculture as Nigeria’s most underleveraged growth engine and a critical tool for controlling inflation, ensuring food security, supporting import substitution, and generating foreign exchange earnings, while noting that insecurity continues to undermine agricultural productivity.

On development financing, Saraki said Nigeria’s challenge is not a shortage of opportunities but the ability to mobilise long-term capital at scale.

He disclosed that pension assets now exceed N20 trillion, yet only a marginal portion is invested in infrastructure or productive sectors.

Unlocking this capital, he said, would require improved project preparation, credible de-risking mechanisms, and expanded capital-market instruments, such as infrastructure and green bonds.

He added that private and foreign investors respond to clarity, consistency, and credibility, stressing that sustained capital inflows depend on respect for contract sanctity, predictable regulation, efficient dispute resolution, and strong institutions that outlive political cycles.

Saraki emphasised governance and the rule of law, characterizing them as economic imperatives rather than abstract ideals.

He said markets respond to certainty and fairness, urging the government to move from controlling markets to enabling them.

Saraki said economic transformation is a process of disciplined decisions rather than one-off announcements, noting that history would judge leaders by implementation rather than rhetoric.

“Nigeria has the talent, the scale, and the opportunity. What we need now is leadership with clarity, courage, and continuity,” he said.