2027 and the danger of religious blackmail

“It will be the end of happiness in this country when religion is brought into politics.” — Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa

Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa did not make this statement for effect. He made it as a warning rooted in a deep understanding of Nigeria’s delicate social fabric. Many decades later, that warning is again being put to a severe test.

As the 2027 general election gradually enters the national conversation, familiar and dangerous arguments are returning to the centre of political debate. Once again, there are deliberate efforts in some quarters to reduce Nigeria’s complex governance challenges to questions of religious identity. The latest expression of this tendency is the growing agitation for the replacement of Vice President Kashim Shettima, not on the basis of performance or competence, but purely on the basis of religion. This line of thinking is neither new nor helpful. More importantly, it is risky.

Nigeria is a sovereign country. If any foreign partner genuinely wishes Nigeria well, the minimum expectation is respect for Nigeria’s domestic affairs and internal political processes. Engagement and cooperation are welcome, but interference is not. No serious nation allows its internal political arrangements to be shaped by external pressure, however attractively such pressure may be presented.

What is even more troubling is the emerging habit of some Nigerians travelling abroad and reportedly paying large sums to lobbyists in order to manufacture external pressure on Nigeria’s political process. Instead of building support through party structures and public confidence, they seek to force political outcomes by internationalising domestic politics. This is unhealthy for democracy and dangerous for national sovereignty.

History teaches that political actors who subcontract their ambitions to foreign interests rarely serve their countries well. A political class that cannot win the confidence of its own people but seeks validation abroad is not one that can be trusted with the nation’s future.

At the centre of the current agitation is the attempt to elevate religion into the principal qualification for leadership. If this argument is pursued to its logical conclusion, then Nigerians must also be honest about certain historical and demographic realities. From the time of Sir Ahmadu Bello to the present, the core of Northern Nigeria has remained predominantly Muslim. This is not a political judgement; it is a demographic fact.

The North remains, now and forever, the political heritage of Ahmadu Bello and must therefore, be treated with caution and respect. It is not an orphaned region, despite its challenges.

Yet the same North has always been home to millions of Christians who have lived peacefully with their Muslim neighbours for generations. Across markets, communities, and families, coexistence has been the norm, not the exception. The impression of permanent tension is often created by a small political minority whose influence is amplified far beyond its actual social weight.

It is also worth recalling that some of the most vocal opponents of the Muslim–Muslim ticket before the 2023 election, including Inuwa Bwala and Yakubu Dogara, left the APC because of that decision. Today, the same names are being mentioned in speculative discussions about the vice-presidential slot in 2027.

A simple political question, therefore, arises: can the Northern Muslim electorate, which forms the backbone of the APC’s support in the region, realistically be expected to embrace such a proposition?

Politics, after all, is not conducted in a vacuum. It is built on trust, memory, numbers, and consistency. It is also necessary to state the obvious: contesting an election does not guarantee victory. Nigeria is a democracy. If Yakubu Dogara, Reverend Hassan Kukah, or anyone else believes they have the support of Nigerians, they are free to contest for president or vice president under any political party of their choice. That right is not in dispute. What is unacceptable is the attempt to impose candidates or force political configurations through pressure, blackmail, or external influence.

Nigeria’s core challenges have never been about the religion of its leaders. They have always been about governance quality, institutional weakness, and the lack of policy continuity.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima inherited an economy burdened by years of avoided decisions. The fuel subsidy regime had become fiscally unsustainable. The foreign exchange system had become deeply distorted. These facts were widely known, but successive administrations chose postponement over reform.

The current administration chose a different path. The removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate were difficult decisions, but they were unavoidable. The hardship Nigerians are experiencing Today is not the product of reform alone; it is largely the accumulated cost of many years of delayed reform.

It would therefore be unwise for the country to endure this difficult adjustment only to abandon the process midway for political or sectarian reasons. That pattern, starting reforms and failing to complete them is one of the reasons Nigeria has struggled to achieve sustained progress.

The Tinubu–Shettima administration is not a religious project. It is, fundamentally, a reform and stabilisation project. It is about restoring fiscal order, rebuilding confidence in the economy, strengthening infrastructure, and repositioning Nigeria in a challenging global environment. These are not objectives that can be achieved within a single political cycle.

Those who are proposing a religious reconfiguration of the political equation are not offering Nigeria a development strategy. They are offering a diversion.

Nigeria must, of course, continue to engage with the international community. But engagement must never become dependence, and cooperation must never become submission. No external approval is worth the price of internal instability.

As 2027 approaches, the central question before Nigerians is not whether the Vice President is Muslim or Christian. The more important question is whether the country is prepared to maintain policy consistency and complete the difficult reform journey it has begun.

Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa’s warning remains as relevant Today as when it was first issued. Ignoring it has never produced good outcomes. There is little reason to believe it will do so this time.

Adam, Ph.D wrote from Maiduguri.

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