How unverified claims from Onitsha-based screwdriver trader influenced first US airstrikes in Nigeria – New York Times

The United States relied on information produced by Emeka Umeagbalasi, a screwdriver trader based in Onitsha, Anambra State, to justify its first official airstrikes carried out in Nigeria, according to an investigation by The New York Times.

Beyond his modest trade, Umeagbalasi has emerged as a controversial figure whose research has influenced the US Republican lawmakers and shaped narratives about violence against Christians in Nigeria.

Umeagbalasi is the founder of the International Society for Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law, known as Intersociety. Research attributed to him has been cited by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Representative Riley Moore of Virginia, and Representative Chris Smith of New Jersey to support claims that Christians are being systematically targeted for slaughter in Africa’s most populous nation.

Read also: How we got here: The road to US airstrikes in Nigeria

Armed with arguments aligned with those claims, President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on Christmas Day in northwestern Nigeria, a move Umeagbalasi described as extraordinary. To him, the US president’s adoption of the cause he has long promoted was “miraculous.”

“If nothing is done,” Umeagbalasi said in an interview from his home, “Nigeria will explode.”

Umeagbalasi has claimed that 125,000 Christians have been killed in Nigeria since 2009. However, he told The New York Times that he often does not verify his data, acknowledging that much of his work is based on “secondary sources,” including Christian interest groups, Nigerian media reports and Google searches.

Collecting accurate data on killings, kidnappings and attacks in Nigeria has long been difficult. The Nigerian government does not publish comprehensive figures on deaths from violent attacks or identify victims by religion. Many incidents occur in remote areas and are reported only long after the fact. While some research indicates that Christians have been killed in large numbers, analysts say insecurity and impunity in affected regions threaten both Christian and Muslim communities.

Umeagbalasi, a Catholic, founded Intersociety in 2008 and operates it from his home. His wife, Blessing, an evangelical Christian, sits on the organization’s board. He said he holds degrees in security studies and peace and conflict resolution from the National Open University of Nigeria and described himself as a “powerful” and “knowledgeable” investigator, likening himself to veteran CNN journalist Christiane Amanpour.

Yet when questioned about how he establishes the religion of victims and the intent of attackers, Umeagbalasi admitted he rarely travels to areas where attacks have occurred and often assumes victims’ religious identities.

He has said that more than 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria in the first seven months of 2025. By contrast, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, an independent conflict-monitoring group, estimated that about 6,700 people were killed during the same period, including Islamist insurgents and military personnel. Of those, about 3,000 were recorded as civilians, without any breakdown by religion.

Read also:Bello Turji resurfaces after US airstrikes, launches fresh attacks on Sokoto communities

Umeagbalasi said he determines victims’ religious identities largely by geography. “For instance, if killings take place in Borno today, when I look at it, I will just look at the zone where the killings take place,” he said, referring to the northeastern state at the center of the Boko Haram insurgency. “Once they take place in southern Borno, there is likelihood of the victims being Christians or many of them or most of them being Christians.”

However, many of Boko Haram’s victims are Muslim.

He cited the recent kidnapping of 25 schoolgirls in Kebbi State as another example. Local officials and the school principal said the girls were all Muslim, but Umeagbalasi disputed that account.

“The girls, a majority of them are Christians, but you know what Nigerian government did?” he said. “They went and Islamised them. Gave them Islamic names just to confuse people.”

Alkasim Abdulkadir, a spokesman for Nigeria’s foreign minister, rejected that claim. “There’s a lot of fallacy to his research, a lot of confirmation bias,” he said of Umeagbalasi. “He’s very performative.”

Umeagbalasi acknowledged that he almost never travels to Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where violence against Christian communities has been particularly intense, and instead relies on secondary sources such as media reports and Open Doors, a Christian advocacy group whose data has also been cited by Mr. Trump. Another key source is Truth Nigeria, a project founded by Iowa-based filmmaker and evangelist Judd Saul.

Like several Christian advocacy groups in Nigeria and the United States, Intersociety and Truth Nigeria frequently describe perpetrators of attacks as “Fulani ethnic militias.” The Fulani are a large ethnic group, predominantly Muslim, with millions of members across West Africa. Umeagbalasi referred to the Fulani as “animals” and said they should be confined to a single Nigerian state, a proposal critics say would amount to ethnic cleansing.

Researchers, journalists and Christian leaders have challenged Umeagbalasi’s figures. Nnamdi Obasi, Nigeria adviser for the International Crisis Group, said Intersociety’s methodology was “a total blank” and argued that the numbers in its reports did not add up. “The basic addition is very, very faulty,” he said.

Read also: , US-Nigeria Christmas Day airstrikes deal major blow to bandit networks in Northwest

Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, the Catholic bishop of Sokoto State, which was struck by US airstrikes in December, said the focus on religious data risked obscuring deeper issues.

“Focus on the fact that this state is weak and doesn’t have the capacity to protect its people,” he said.

Despite the criticism, Umeagbalasi remains resolute. “This is our heavenly marathon,” he said.

He claimed that nearly 20,000 churches have been destroyed in Nigeria over the past 16 years and estimated that there are 100,000 churches nationwide. When asked how he arrived at that figure, he replied simply: “Googled it.”

Taofeek Oyedokun is a correspondent at BusinessDay with years of experience reporting on political economy, public policy, migration, environment/climate change, and social justice. A graduate of Political Science from the University of Lagos, he has also earned multiple professional certificates in journalism and media-related training. Known for his clear, data-driven reporting, Oyedokun covers a wide range of national and international socioeconomic issues, bringing depth, balance, and public-interest focus to his work.

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