Rewane predicts 4.1% annual growth in 2026

Nigeria could enter 2026 on its strongest economic footing in more than a decade, according to economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane. Speaking at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 held recently in Lagos, Rewane projected that easing inflation, rising investment, major corporate listings, and stabilising monetary conditions will propel the country into a new and more durable cycle of growth. He described 2026 as a defining year when structural reforms, private-sector expansion, and improved policy coordination converge to reposition Africa’s largest economy. Rewane explained that after years of surging inflation, severe exchange-rate distortions that saw the naira lose nearly 70 percent of its value, and suppressed investment, Nigeria is approaching a point where reforms and economic fundamentals will finally reinforce one another. Capital Market to Hit N262trn A major highlight of his outlook is the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), where he expects total market capitalisation to surge from N93 trillion to N262 trillion in 2026. This leap, he noted, would place Nigeria among the fastest-expanding capital markets in the emerging-economies landscape. He attributed the expected boom to upcoming mega listings such as the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), alongside strong earnings in telecoms, cement, consumer goods, and banking. Rewane forecast that inflation—both food and core—will fall to around 20 percent in 2026. He credits this outlook to a firm disinflationary stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), rising domestic refining capacity, stronger manufacturing output, higher productivity, and reforms aimed at lowering logistics and supply-chain costs. A drop in inflation, he said, will boost household purchasing power and spur demand across retail, services, and industry. On monetary policy, the economist believes 2026 will mark the start of cautious interest-rate cuts after nearly two years of aggressive tightening. However, he warned that the CBN will only ease rates once it is convinced of sustained disinflation, improved liquidity management, stronger reserves, and credible fiscal discipline. Rewane predicts the naira will strengthen and stabilise within a band of N1,450 to N1,500 per dollar next year. This stabilisation, he argued, will be driven by higher oil output, improved FX supply, rising reserves, reduced arbitrage, and moderated import demand following fiscal and trade reforms. He emphasised that foreign-exchange stability will be central to investor confidence and long-term economic planning.

Rewane highlighted MTN Nigeria and Dangote Cement as two top performers expected to post strong revenue and profit growth in 2026, helping sustain investor confidence and lift market capitalisation.

He predicts stronger stability indicators for the banking sector, supported by moderating inflation, reduced FX exposure, and improved digital penetration.

Pension funds, he said, may see early-year volatility but should recover strongly by year-end, with net asset value rising by 12–15 percent as investor confidence improves.

Risks That Could Upset the Outlook

Despite the optimistic forecast, Rewane warned of several domestic and global risks, including: Oil prices falling below $60 per barrel; rising insecurity in food-producing regions; excessive election-year spending in 2026 and a sharp drop in global commodity prices.

Rewane added that Nigeria is “standing at the threshold of a profound economic reset,” noting that the outcomes of 2026 will depend heavily on quality policy decisions, disciplined monetary-fiscal coordination, and strengthened security in productive regions.

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