NiMet predicts early rainfall, urges delay in farming

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted early rainfalls in Kano, Niger, Rivers and twelve other states of the federation.

Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, made the disclosure in Abuja on Tuesday, when he unveiled the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by NiMet, warning farmers not to rush into planting seeds as the rainy season has yet to begin.

The minister said, although there has been early rain in some parts of the country, such as Lagos, Rivers, and Bayelsa states, among others, the actual rainy season is yet to begin, stressing that extreme weather is expected within March and May this year.

Highlight of the 2026 SCP

The SCP predicts significant rains across the southern parts of the country this year, while also predicting early onset, cessations and extreme weather conditions in 2026.

The report noted that early onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. While a late onset is expected over Borno State.

A further breakdown of the report also shows that rainfall cessation  is anticipated to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States. However, a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.

However, a longer-than-normal length of rainy season is expected in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States. Whereas, parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States are expected to have a shorter-than-normal length of rainy season.

A normal annual rainfall amount is anticipated in most parts of Nigeria compared to the long-term average. Above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory; while in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States, below-normal rainfall is expected.

During the season of March to May, severe dry spells exceeding 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, while moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, and Delta states, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara states. Furthermore, during the June-July-August season, a severe dry spell that may last up to 21 days is predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states.

Meanwhile, the Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break,’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States. The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo States.

The Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Yakubu Adam Farmata, said the SCP remains a flagship platform for strengthening the interface between climate science and national development planning.

He said the unveiling of the Seasonal Climate Prediction is not merely a scientific exercise but a strategic national engagement aimed at empowering decision-makers with credible, timely, and actionable climate information.

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