Confusion as Political Strategy: Is 2027 Being Engineered for Crisis?

The current controversy unfolding ahead of the 2027 general election was entirely avoidable if only Nigeria’s political elite prioritized public interest and collective good above narrow, self-serving agendas. There was no justification for delaying amendments to the Electoral Act, given that both Senate and House committees commenced the reform process in 2023. It’s less than a year to the general election; we are here debating whether to legalize real-time electronic transmission of results and recycling flimsy excuses about infrastructure and feasibility.

Electronic transmission is not new. It has been a feature of Nigeria’s elections since 2015. We are being manipulated by politicians peddling a false narrative because they fear e-transmission will expose their rigging schemes. As Simon Kolawole would say “Fellow Nigerians, it’s all politics.”

Meanwhile, INEC has issued a timetable against the backdrop of an incomplete reform process. Anyone paying attention can see the implications. If timelines are altered by last-minute amendment to the Electoral Act, INEC may be forced to reissue its timetable. As of today, the release of a revised timetable is inevitable. This type of disruption is not incidental; it creates instability in planning, procurement, training, and deployment. Add to this a dysfunctional budget cycle where, in February 2026, we are still debating the 2026 appropriation even though elections are barely a year away. When will the budget be passed? When will the funds be released for INEC? No serious country prepares for a general election this way. Elections are not spontaneous events; they are complex national operations requiring financial certainty and legal clarity well in advance.

Let’s be honest, politicians are creating this crisis intentionally. Politicians recognize confusion overstretches institutions, especially accountability institutions while uncertainty overwhelms citizens. They know manipulation thrives in confusion, so they are determined to overstretch and overwhelm citizens so that by election day, we’ve lowered our standards for what constitutes credible elections. By the time we realize what’s happening, they will have seized power.

A Looming Constitutional Crisis of Dates

Lest we forget, we are heading toward a constitutional time trap if not handled properly. The Constitution is clear: elections must not hold earlier than 150 days and not later than 30 days before the expiration of tenure. In practical terms, all elections, including runoffs and reruns, must be concluded by April 29, 2027.

The February 20 date currently fixed for the presidential election coincides with Ramadan and the Lenten season in 2027. Ramadan lasts 30 days; Lent spans 40 days. If election dates are adjusted to avoid both fasting periods, we will have exactly 30 days before the constitutional deadline. That is dangerously tight for conducting all elections except we revert to conducting elections on one day. What happens in the event of a runoff? What if there are widespread reruns? The earliest constitutionally permissible window is 29th January. The available time between 29th January and 7th February 2027 when Ramadan is scheduled, is extremely narrow for the conduct of a general election.

I wish INEC clarity and wisdom as it undertakes its consultations, and I hope the upcoming extraordinary session of the House of Representatives delivers an outcome that truly serves citizens’ interests and strengthens our democracy.

2027 cannot be left to chaos. It cannot be surrendered to confusion, compressed timelines, or avoidable legal uncertainty. The stakes are simply too high.

Itodo is Executive Director, Yiaga Africa

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