2027: Is Obidient Movement losing steam?

In 2023, the Obidient Movement swept through Nigeria like a cultural and political awakening. Young Nigerians at home and in the diaspora, urban professionals, artisans and first-time voters rallied around a shared belief that they were witnessing the rise of a new political era. Rallies were held across major cities, social media exploded with energy, and Peter Obi, the movement’s presidential candidate under the Labour Party, rode a wave of passion that shifted the national political landscape.

Obi secured more than 6.1 million votes to come third behind President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The movement also helped propel Dr Alex Otti to the Abia State Government House and facilitated the election of over 40 lawmakers across the Senate and House of Representatives, in addition to several state assembly seats, especially in the South-East.

However, less than three years later, the movement that once embodied hope and optimism is struggling to retain cohesion. A series of resignations, internal disputes and frustrations has raised a critical question: how did it lose momentum so rapidly after the spectacle of 2023?

The internal crisis in the Labour Party, which the movement used as its political base, was the first major setback and has reportedly cost it more than half of its elected federal and state lawmakers. The instability has also placed Obi, the movement’s arrowhead, in a political dilemma, with speculation mounting that he may defect to the coalition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the coming days, although without the certainty of the 2027 presidential ticket that parties eagerly offered him before the 2023 election.

One of the earliest signals of fracture in the movement came from Akwa Ibom, where Dominic Essien, former Labour Party senatorial candidate and key movement figure, resigned. In his letter, he claimed the Labour Party had been “neutralised and torn to shreds by greedy political hyenas and jackals,” adding that the platform could no longer drive genuine transformation. His exit reflected long-rumoured internal tensions and organisational distrust.

The movement’s Director of Mobilisation, Morris Monye, soon resigned, saying he could no longer be “part of optics and no work.” He claimed that nearly a year after plans were initiated, almost none had been implemented. He revealed he spent N40 million of his personal funds on mobilisation tours, grassroots work, committees and radio programmes, yet his directorate received “not a single naira” from the leadership.

“There’s no bank account even for the directorate. In fact, Mr Peter Obi has never asked what we are doing in mobilisation. Nothing. No communication,” he alleged, adding that the movement’s poor showing in the recent Anambra election made his position “untenable” and citing harassment from government sympathisers and personal financial strain. His final warning was stark: goodwill alone cannot sustain a political project beyond 2023.

Marcel Ngogbehei, founding chairman of the Coalition for Peter Obi (CPO), warned that the movement was drifting from its grassroots foundations. He disclosed that the One Million Man March, Global Obidient March and other major mobilisation efforts were funded entirely by volunteers. “Peter Obi did not donate a kobo to that historic effort,” he said, noting that many incurred debts to keep the movement active.

He criticised appointments made without consulting core foundational groups and raised concerns about the handling of donations, alleging that some funds were privately managed by Obi’s associates without adequate transparency. He described the movement as “underfunded, leaderless in function, and driven by unpaid volunteers.”

Obi’s philanthropy vs movement funding

Despite the internal struggles, Obi continued his tours and donations to education and health institutions across the country in 2024 and 2025, sometimes contributing over N200 million in a week. While the gestures strengthened his public image, some volunteers viewed them as troubling optics given the movement’s organisational challenges.

The movement’s decline is largely linked to the absence of a strong institutional framework. Passion, volunteerism and social media engagement that worked during the election cycle proved insufficient afterwards. With no clear chain of command, funding structure or national strategy, what was once an electrifying force began to fragment. Insiders say rapid expansion without corresponding structure made the weaknesses more visible post-election.

Analyst: Why the movement was destined to fizzle out

Political analyst Jide Ojo said the fractures were expected given the nature of Nigeria’s political system and the movement’s emergence. He explained that the movement’s energy and resources were bound to wane once the Labour Party lost the presidential race.

“Opposition politics in Nigeria is tough because once you lose, you lose everything. It’s a winner-takes-all system,” he said, adding that reliance on volunteer funding was unsustainable. He noted that supporters bore most of the financial burden, even when the party could not support mobilisation and logistics.

He linked fatigue to uncertainty over Obi’s political platform, saying recent defections to the ADC and its stance on equal opportunity for all aspirants makes Obi’s likely direction. This is more so as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is a veteran in party politics has assumed the ADC national leadership role and is expected to put his hat in the ring for the party’s presidential ticket in 2026.

While Obi has also insisted that he intends to run for president again in 2027, the lack of clarity on the party in which he might seek this opportunity has left many supporters disillusioned, Ojo warned.

“The movement doesn’t want him playing second fiddle anywhere,” he said.

He also recalled the “we no dey give shishi” (we don’t offer money) campaign slogan, noting that it set unrealistic expectations. Volunteers feel overstretched and abandoned as Obi increasingly operates independently.

Ojo compared the movement to past political networks, including Buhari’s, which disintegrated after electoral success.

“If he contests today, he may not get up to one million votes,” he said.

He further noted that Obi’s recent endorsement of ADC candidates in by-elections failed to produce results, suggesting a decline in grassroots influence. “He has already lost the networks that helped him in 2023. He now has to rebuild from scratch,” he said.

Also commenting, another political analyst, Professor Kamilu Sani Fage said the movement appears to be losing steam because factors that drove its 2023 momentum “may not be of relevance as they were then.”

“Whether we like it or not, the Obidient Movement used the factor of North versus South, the issue of religion, and the issue of ethnicity. That is why you saw massive votes in areas where these factors were strong,” he said.

“The movement was very strong in the South,” he said. “Even outside that, the Igbo factor was very important. And in the North, most of his votes were from Christian areas.” While he maintained that religion and ethnicity would always matter in Nigerian politics, he insisted they “may not be so appealing to him as they were before.”

While acknowledging that philanthropy is not inherently wrong, he warned that Obi risks alienating his base. “You cannot just use and dump people,” he said. He argued that volunteer-driven structures and weakened opposition platforms will make 2027 difficult, especially against an incumbent armed with resources and institutional influence.

Coordinator maintains movement is stronger

However, the National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Dr Yunusa Tanko, dismissed claims of decline, insisting it is “working stronger” despite challenges.

“It gives you an idea of those who are ready to stand the test of time,” he said, adding that voluntary commitment naturally filters out the less dedicated. He noted expanded presence in northern states and said the movement is consolidating its structure down to local levels, targeting 176,000 units nationwide.

Responding to complaints about funding, including from recently resigned officials, Tanko said the movement operates on a model of voluntary contributions rather than centralised financing.

“The movement is based on voluntary contributions. Most of the programs that we did were done by people who believe in the movement,” he said.

He described the relationship between members and the movement’s figurehead, Mr. Peter Obi, as mutually reinforcing.

“Whenever there is an opportunity for him to make his own financial contribution, he does so,” he said. “It is a symbiotic thing for both the members and the leader. There is no single organization in the world responsible for being directed by one person. It is a collective effort.”

But with less than two years to the 2027 general elections, analysts believe that the movement’s future will depend on how quickly it can resolve its internal inconsistencies, provide strategic direction and clarify Obi’s political path. Political observers say that unless the movement transitions from protest energy to structured political engagement, its impact in 2027 may be significantly diminished.

They believe the question of whether it is losing or gaining ground remains open-ended, depending less on rhetoric and more on the strategic choices to be made in the coming months.

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