West African democracy declining, says analyst after foiled Benin coup

Soldiers announce coup d'état in the Republic of Benin. Photo: BTV

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A Global Counter Terrorism Consultant, David Otto, has warned that the foiled coup attempt in Benin on Sunday is another sign that democracy across West Africa is rapidly deteriorating.

He said the region is now witnessing a wave of military takeovers, constitutional abuse and manipulated elections that “make democracy seem as dead in the waters”.

Speaking on Arise News on Sunday, Otto said the failed plot should not be interpreted as a deterrent.

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for us to see the coup that has been foiled as some kind of deterrent.

“We are now losing count in terms of the number of military takeovers in the continent. The coup belt continues to increase,” he said.

He said the incident highlights a broader collapse of democratic norms across West Africa and the Sahel.

“What we’re experiencing here is that we’re increasingly seeing democracy being dragged to the floor.

“We’re not just talking about military coups. We’re talking about governments changing constitutions, elections being proclaimed fraudulently and won by so-called democratic systems,” he added.

Otto described the Benin plot as unusual because President Patrice Talon had already declared he would not contest the April 2026 election.

“One would have thought coup d’état would be against presidents sitting tight in power, but that’s increasingly not the case,” he said.

He warned that the deeper problem is the role of the armed forces, saying, “The common denominator is that the military in Africa is becoming a pain in the democratic system. It’s the military that took power, and it’s also the military that came to foil this coup d’état.”

Benin’s presidency confirmed the attempt was carried out by a small group of soldiers calling themselves the Military Committee for Refoundation, who briefly appeared on national television announcing Talon’s removal and the dissolution of state institutions.

The government later assured all that Talon was safe, describing the plot as the action of “a small group” with limited influence.

The Benin episode adds to a worsening pattern across West Africa, where several countries are grappling with political instability, extremist violence, and democratic backsliding, cited by the Security Council report.

Across the central Sahel — Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger — jihadist groups have overrun communities, fuelled mass displacement and intensified attacks.

In Niger and northern Nigeria, ISWAP and related clashes continue to spill across the Lake Chad Basin into Chad and Cameroon.

Political crises are also deepening in coastal states.

Côte d’Ivoire’s controversial fourth-term election triggered unrest, while Guinea-Bissau’s November polls collapsed into military intervention, and Tanzania is still dealing with the fallout of disputed elections marked by protests and a heavy security crackdown.

The overlapping crises, analysts say, mark one of the most volatile periods for the region in decades. Otto warned that the situation is reaching a breaking point.

“I don’t see how African countries are going to cope with this at this point in time.”

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