Food security or temporary relief? The battle for Nigeria’s oil-seed future

Food security is not defined at the port of entry. It is determined in the fields, in the mills, and in the rural households that depend on agriculture for survival. Yet Nigeria’s vegetable oil industry, spanning palm, soybean, groundnut and other oilseeds, now finds itself squeezed between the pressure to liberalise trade and the realities of high-cost domestic production. Industry leaders say that without policy clarity and enforcement, the country risks sacrificing long-term self-reliance for short-term price relief.

From the palm estates of Cross River and Edo to soybean clusters in Benue and Niger, the strain is no longer theoretical. In less than two months, palm oil prices have dropped by nearly half, even as the industry approaches peak harvest. Smallholders are selling below cost. Refiners are operating below optimal capacity. Investors who committed capital to plantations with long gestation cycles are reassessing their exposure.

On one side is the government’s push to ease food prices. On the other is the structural vulnerability of local production. Caught in between is a familiar policy cycle: borders loosen when inflation rises; protection returns only after producers are weakened.

At a national press conference on Wednesday, leaders across the vegetable oil value chain warned that the recent influx of imported oils and inconsistent enforcement of existing policies threaten to unravel more than two decades of gradual domestic recovery.

“Food security is not solely about ensuring that food is available and affordable today,” Fatai Afolabi, a sustainability consultant and convener of the press conference, said. “It is also about safeguarding the capacity of local producers to continue producing tomorrow.”

To understand the anxiety in the room, stakeholders traced the industry’s history.

“In the 70s and 80s, even into the 90s, the palm oil industry was almost comatose,” Emmanuel Ibru, chairman Plantation Owners Forum of Nigeria, said. “At the beginning of the present democratic structure, we had a lot of support from the Obasanjo government… the imposition of duties and the ban on refined vegetable oil helped protect the market.”

Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration introduced tariff protections and import restrictions that encouraged domestic investment. According to Ibru, production rose from about 800,000 tonnes two decades ago to between 1.3 and 1.4 million tonnes today.

That growth attracted billions of dollars in capital from both foreign and local investors, including companies such as Okomu, Presco, Ellah Lakes, and the likes. Now, industry players argue that sudden policy reversals threaten those investments.

“Plantation is not something you do and after one year you start harvesting,” said Okey Ikoro, chairman of the Vegetable and Edible Oil Producers Association of Nigeria (VEOPAN). “It has a long gestation period. If you cannot have policy that sustains this gestation period, how can you do more?”

Industry estimates suggest between two and three million Nigerians are directly or indirectly engaged in the oilseeds and vegetable oil value chain, from smallholders to transporters to refinery workers.

Ibru posed a fundamental question: “While you’re trying to push down food prices, what’s the point if the people meant to benefit don’t have the jobs or resources to partake in it?”

For Alphonsus Inyang, president of the National Palm Produce Association of Nigeria, the immediate concern is the rural farmer.

“Currently, we are trading at a price that is 50% less than what it was just less than two months ago,” he said. “We are selling at less than production price. This is not good enough for smallholder farmers who depend on this for school fees, for medicine, for the well-being of their households.”

He linked the price collapse to what he described as uncontrolled inflows of palm oil through land and sea borders. According to him, “we have more than 300 entry points… more than 30 entry points through the waterways. And we keep seeing lorries and trailers leaving Oron, heading to every other part of the country.”

“Government is losing revenue. The farmers are being suppressed through the influx of oil that comes in at very low prices,” he added.

From the manufacturers’ perspective, the problem is not just importation, but inconsistency.

Mohammed Tahir, chairman of the Vegetable Oil Sub-Sector of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, described government action as “a knee-jerk decision.”

“You have a policy on ground… import prohibition on vegetable oil,” he said. “All of a sudden there is a change of direction, a preference of trade over domestic production. What happened to enforcement?”

He pointed to Nigeria’s earlier backward integration successes in cement and other sectors as proof that policy discipline works.

“When you talk of food security,” Tahir added, “it is not only about bringing food into the country. If you are not self-reliant, the same foreign exchange issue can rise again and you fall back into the same trap.”

In the soybean subsector, the debate carries its own political undertones. Ayodele Christopher Uwala, president of the Soybean Association of Nigeria, described soybean as “a political crop,” alleging that strong interests are pushing for large-scale importation despite its impact on domestic producers.

“The will to import a lot of soybeans into the country is very, very high,” he said. “If Nigeria is consuming 1.6 million tonnes and we produce 1.2 million, then only 400,000 should be imported. But there are no statistics. They just allow people with power to import.”

Uwala also raised concerns about the quality of some imported products, warning that poor-quality materials could have health implications.

“Industries that were producing at 5 percent capacity have gone up to 60 percent because they are able to get materials. That is good,” he said. “But what about the quality? What are the elements in those materials being crushed? It is going to affect the health status of Nigerians.”

He alleged that excessive imports are being stockpiled, distorting the market and undermining farmers’ confidence.

“What they have imported will go for the next five years,” he said. “Two years ago, the price of soybean was high. Now it has gone to even one quarter of the price. Farmers are asking: is it better for us to sit down?”

Nigeria’s producers insist they are not afraid of competition, but they cannot compete against state-subsidised rivals.

Ikoro noted that Malaysia and Indonesia provide concessionary financing, subsidized electricity and structured credit systems for plantation agriculture.

“Malaysia is getting oil from special funds at 2%,” he said. “Government is subsidizing electricity. Here, industries are based on the highest band of electricity.”

Under the National Integrated Palm Oil Development Policy 2026-2032, Ghana plans to invest $500 million to boost its oil palm industry and reduce dependence on importation.

Malaysia and Indonesia, once recipients of Nigerian oil palm seedlings, now dominate global palm oil exports. Indonesia earned nearly $23 billion from palm oil export in 2024, with others earnings big in the market.

Nigeria, despite abundant land and labour, remains a net importer.

Some officials, stakeholders say, justify import flexibility under commitments to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

But AfCFTA permits the protection of strategic and sensitive products. “Vegetable oil is a strategic product,” Ikoro, VEOPAN president, said. “There is no need for any government to justify AfCFTA and then kill your country’s production.”

Industry leaders are asking the government to retain vegetable oil on the sensitive products list and maintain its classification under protective fiscal frameworks.

The debate cannot end with border closures alone. High production costs remain real: expensive fertilizer, unreliable power, insecurity in farming communities, limited mechanization, and weak statistical data.

Uwala highlighted the need for targeted input support: “If government is ready to give necessary inputs, the farmers are ready to produce at all costs.”

“We have advocated that tractors acquired by government should be given to associations, not just to governors,” he said.

The crisis, therefore, exposes two overlapping tensions: Short-term consumer relief versus long-term production stability and trade liberalisation versus strategic sector protection.

Nigeria consumes an estimated three million tonnes of palm oil annually, though even industry leaders admit official data remains unclear. The domestic market is worth billions of dollars. Yet, according to stakeholders, Nigeria now controls barely a third of it.

“Every single drop of oil that comes into Nigeria creates employment in another country,” Ikoro said.

The oil palm tree is often called the “tree of life” in Southeast Asia, a symbol of rural transformation and industrial growth. In Nigeria, it remains a contested commodity, oscillating between neglect and political intervention.

The choice before policymakers is not simply about cheaper oil at the port. It is about whether Nigeria will remain a consumption market or rebuild itself as a production powerhouse.

For now, the farmers are watching the prices. The refiners are watching their balance sheets. And the investors are watching policy signals.

In agriculture, timing is everything. Miss a planting season, and you lose a year. Miss a policy window, and you may lose a generation.

“A food strategy that feeds the nation today must also empower those who will feed it tomorrow,” Afolabi, the convener of the conference, said.

Taofeek Oyedokun is a correspondent at BusinessDay with years of experience reporting on political economy, public policy, migration, environment/climate change, and social justice. A graduate of Political Science from the University of Lagos, he has also earned multiple professional certificates in journalism and media-related training. Known for his clear, data-driven reporting, Oyedokun covers a wide range of national and international socioeconomic issues, bringing depth, balance, and public-interest focus to his work.

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