Budget turmoil deepens as Tinubu prepares 2026 estimates ahead of MTEF approval

By : Azimazi Momoh Jimoh, Abuja, John Akubo, Rotimi Agboluaje

Date: 12 December 2025 5:20am WAT

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

• Delay in MTEF sparks concerns over National Assembly autonomy • Four-month lag cripples statutory budget timetable • Experts warn of disorder as 2026 plan proceeds without approved MTEF • Ex-presidential candidate Ayodele scores Tinubu low on fiscal policies

Nigeria’s fiscal anxieties have widened as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepares to lay the 2026 Appropriation Bill before the National Assembly next week, despite the delayed presentation and non-passage of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), the statutory document that underpins the yearly budget.

The development has revived longstanding fears about the diminishing autonomy of the 10th National Assembly under Senate President Godswill Akpabio, with lawmakers and analysts questioning the basis on which the 2026 estimates will be scrutinised or approved.

In a letter to the Senate, President Tinubu transmitted the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP, approved by the Federal Executive Council on December 3, 2025, urging “expeditious legislative action.”

But the MTEF, legally due before the end of August, arrived four months behind schedule, crippling the statutory timeline for budget preparation.

A lawmaker, who expressed frustration at the situation, described the delay as “a dangerous dimension,” insisting that by law the MTEF is the foundation of the budget process. He cited Section 11(1)(b) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which requires the President to prepare and lay the MTEF “not later than four months before the commencement of the next financial year.”

“The MTEF gives life to the budget. Without it, the budget cannot legally begin,” he said. The FRA also mandates that government corporations submit budget estimates by August, forming part of the draft national budget, a practice now in complete disarray.

The fiscal uncertainty worsened last week when the Federal Government ordered ministries and agencies to roll over 70 per cent of their 2025 capital allocations into 2026, citing revenue constraints and the need to prioritise ongoing projects.

Contained in the 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular, the directive bars MDAs from proposing new capital projects and requires them to “upload 70 per cent of the 2025 budget to continue in FY2026.”

A development expert called the rollover “a sign of failed fiscal discipline,” warning that the extension of multiple budgets creates “room for corruption” and denies Nigerians timely project benefits.

Amid the confusion, the Senate Committee on Finance has suspended consideration of the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP until the executive submits a detailed performance report for the 2024 and 2025 budgets.

After a closed-door session with Finance Minister Wale Edun, the Accountant-General and the Budget Office, Committee Chair, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa, said last Tuesday that the legislature would reconvene only after receiving full documentation on fund releases, capital execution levels and revenue performance.

However, the Director-General of the Budget Office offered a grim assessment, describing the current cycle as “turbulent.” Crude oil earnings have fallen below projections, inflation has eroded fiscal assumptions, and provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act have drastically reduced inflows to the Federation Account.

Co-founder of BudgIT, Seun Onigbinde, who has been speaking on the tragedies that have befallen the country’s budgeting system, noted that Nigeria’s budgeting system has “lost direction,” describing it as chaotic and lacking accountability.

He noted in an interview session that delays in implementation have led to the 2023 and 2024 budgets being extended into 2025, while capital implementation for 2025 only commenced in October.

“What we have now is a system without a calendar,” he said. “In previous administrations, even when budgets were presented late, they were signed on January 1. That covenant has been broken.”

Onigbinde also lamented that as of mid-November, no MTEF document or draft 2026 budget was before the Federal Executive Council, a sign, he said, of deteriorating fiscal discipline.

He warned that the fiscal disorganisation, rising debt service (now nearly double its 2023 level) and inadequate revenue performance are undermining national development.

Nigeria now risks operating multiple budgets simultaneously, experts warn, as capital projects from two preceding years collide with new spending demands.

Contractors, many unpaid for months, are protesting. Revenue projections remain unrealistic, and agencies are struggling to defend their submissions amid rushed budget sessions.

Yet, the government insists that the 2026 budget will focus on ward-based development, infrastructure, security and enhanced domestic production in pursuit of the $1 trillion economy target.

But without an approved MTEF, and with the Senate withholding legislative consideration, the question remains whether President Tinubu can present a legally grounded 2026 budget next week, or whether Nigeria’s already fragile fiscal architecture is heading for deeper disorder. Ex-presidential candidate Ayodele scores Tinubu’s fiscal policies low

MEANWHILE, a former presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections, Prof Oluwamuyiwa Favour Ayodele, has scored the economic policies of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu low, warning that current conditions are pushing Nigerians into deeper hardship.

Ayodele, who featured on Business Diet, a programme on WellsRadio 89.3FM, Ibadan, anchored by Akinwale Aboluwade, described Nigeria’s economic situation as “awkward, backward and retrogressive,” stressing that citizens are struggling under the weight of soaring inflation and unfavourable business conditions.

The former presidential candidate said, “The current state of the country’s economy is awkward. The country is backward and retrogressive. The citizens are not finding it easy. People are struggling as inflation is high to the rooftops. With inflation at 24.2 per cent, you can tell the plight of Nigerians.”

He lamented that excessive taxation and weak productivity have worsened national economic woes, noting that without a strong production base, recovery would remain elusive. According to him, electricity, which should serve as a fundamental enabler of economic revival, remains unreliable, further crippling industries and small businesses.

“Tax is taking a lot, and that is a big blow. Without production, the situation becomes worse. Electricity is supposed to be the fundamental to reengineer the economy, but we are not getting it. Everything is going down,” he said.

Ayodele blamed the situation on what he called poor policy direction from the Tinubu administration, insisting that national progress is driven by sound, relatable and inclusive policies.

“What we need to do is to revive the economy, but the policy of Tinubu is not helping us. The destinies of countries are determined by the policies in place. Once your policy is not relatable, things would go crazy and depression would set in,” he said.

The former presidential candidate also reaffirmed his ambition to contest the 2027 presidential election. He had earlier declared his intention during a media briefing at the Governor’s Apartment, Omole Estate Phase 1, Ojodu Berger, Lagos, his third attempt at the nation’s highest office since 2019.

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