Implications of Obi’s defection for Labour Party, ADC and APC

With the 2027 general election approaching, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, formally joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on December 31, 2025, in Enugu, signalling a major realignment within Nigeria’s opposition politics.

Obi had participated in the launch of the ADC earlier in 2025, following the merger of political leaders from troubled parties into the platform. However, he stopped short of formally joining the party until last week.

The defection ended months of speculation surrounding Obi’s political future and brought to a close his prolonged hesitation over his next move.

Political analysts say the decision became inevitable amid what many describe as an irreconcilable leadership crisis within the Labour Party.

Some political watchers argue that Obi’s move was the most viable option available, describing it as a pragmatic decision not only for the former Anambra State governor but also for many South-East politicians, noting that both the LP and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have been weakened by internal divisions.

The defection ceremony attracted members of Obi’s political family, the Obidient Movement, and several political leaders from the South-East, many of whom also joined the ADC. The party is now expected to serve as their political platform for the 2027 general election.

Among those present were ADC National Chairman David Mark; former Imo State governor, Achike Udenwa; former Enugu State governor, Okwesilieze Nwodo; Onyema Ugochukwu; Ben Obi; Senators Enyinnaya Abaribe, Tony Nwoye and Victor Umeh, a number of members of the House of Representatives, alongside other South-East leaders.

Read also: Amidst Atiku and Obi in ADC, Tinubu retains significant structural advantage ahead 2027 — A data‑driven assessment

What Obi’s exit means for the Labour Party

Observers say the prolonged leadership crisis in the LP has significantly weakened the party, leaving it divided and ill-prepared to mount a serious challenge in the 2027 general election at both national and sub-national levels.

The crisis, which erupted after the party’s strong performance in the 2023 general election, stemmed from leadership disputes involving Lamidi Apapa and Julius Abure, both of whom laid claim to the party’s national structure.

The impasse led to factionalisation and triggered mass defections, largely to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Despite interventions by prominent opposition figures, the crisis remained unresolved, with Abure refusing to step aside despite court rulings declaring the expiration of his tenure as national chairman.

Some LP members and political observers have accused elements within the party leadership of collaborating with external political interests, particularly within the ruling party, to deliberately weaken the LP and frustrate Obi’s possible emergence as a presidential candidate in 2027.

Given the party’s popularity and electoral gains in 2023, analysts argue that vested interests within the current administration may be allowing the crisis to persist, rendering the LP incapable of posing a serious threat in the next election cycle.

With Obi’s departure, questions now surround the party’s future relevance. Analysts warn that the LP risks reverting to its pre-2023 status, marked by limited national appeal and weak electoral value.

Over the past two years, several high-profile figures who contributed to the LP’s momentum in 2023 have exited the party, a development expected to significantly affect its chances in 2027.

Political analyst Kunle Okunade said the party had been deliberately destabilised.

“LP will remain a political party, but it cannot compete. It is fragmented, divided and weak,” Okunade told BusinessDay.

“It is a deliberate attempt by certain forces, using party chieftains, to weaken the party after its strong showing in 2023. It may be politics, but it is unhealthy for democracy.”

Similarly, Sunday Ugochi, a lawyer, said it was unrealistic to believe that either the LP or PDP could be revived ahead of 2027.

“The LP, as it stands, is dead and cannot compete. That is exactly what those who perceive it as a threat want,” he said, while warning against attempts to entrench a one-party system.

Meanwhile, the LP and the Action Democratic Party (ADP) have initiated talks aimed at forming a political alliance to adopt consensus candidates for upcoming elections, starting with the FCT Area Council polls in February 2026 and the Osun State governorship election in August 2026.

The proposed collaboration, tagged the Ballot Alliance for Good Governance, would focus on joint voter education, campaigns and grassroots mobilisation rather than a formal party merger.

What Obi’s movement mean for the ADC

Obi’s decision to formally align his political movement with the ADC marks a major turning point for the party as Nigeria moves toward the 2027 election.

Although the ADC had made gains by absorbing opposition politicians over the past year, Obi’s entry elevates the party from the fringes to the centre of national political discourse.

Analysts say Obi brings with him a nationwide, youthful and highly mobilised support base that significantly enhances the ADC’s visibility, structure and credibility.

The Obidient Movement provides the ADC with a national presence it previously lacked.

This transforms the ADC from a marginal party into a serious opposition vehicle, at least on paper. Obi’s strong showing in 2023 confers legitimacy and perceived electability.

Okunade, however, warned that it won’t be a surprise if there is intra-party struggle between the Atiku loyalists and the Obidients for the soul of the ADC, but noted that

the coming together of the two gladiators would make the ruling APC to seat up in the delivery of public goods as 2027 election approach.

Other commentators note that the development could encourage defections from other opposition parties, including the LP, NNPP and factions within the PDP, positioning the ADC as a potential coalition hub.

There were those who caution that Obi’s entry also introduces new internal pressures, particularly around the management of competing presidential ambitions within the party.

Read also: Coalition welcomes Peter Obi into ADC, rallies members for democratic rebirth

Obi joins Atiku, Amaechi in ADC Presidential race

Obi’s alignment with the ADC intensifies the contest for the party’s 2027 presidential ticket, joining former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi as leading contenders.

While other aspirants may emerge, analysts say none of the three is lightweight, making the contest highly competitive.

Atiku is currently seen as a strong contender, having publicly advocated a joint ticket with Obi. However, Obi recently ruled out the possibility of serving as a running mate.

“I am not travelling round the world to learn governance to be Vice President,” Obi said.

“I know how to turn Nigeria around. Peter Obi will be on the ballot in 2027.”

Political analyst Jude Ode urged the ADC to ensure a transparent primary process to avoid internal resentment.

“Obi’s movement gives the ADC its best electoral opportunity since inception, but popularity alone does not win elections,” he said.

“The real challenge is converting momentum into grassroots organisation, electoral discipline and national reach.

This is where the APC still has an advantage.”

ADC as a potentially unified opposition: Implications for APC

Analysts say Obi’s move could position the ADC as a unified opposition platform, posing a strategic challenge to the ruling APC in 2027.

The APC has benefited in recent years from defections by opposition politicians from crisis-ridden parties, creating a perception of reduced electoral competition.

Following Obi’s defection, the APC dismissed the move as driven by personal ambition.

However, analysts argue that consolidating opposition forces under one platform could weaken the APC’s traditional advantage of a divided opposition.

“Consolidation under one banner could increase competition in swing regions and among youth and urban voters who backed Obi in 2023,” an analyst said.

“That is not good news for a ruling party that appears to be preparing for an easy path to Aso Rock in 2027.”

Some observers have also said that the ruling party has already become jittery with the latest development, which they alleged may have informed the “feeble criticism” by some of the President’s media men.

“What is evident is that the Obi’s moves may have rattled the ruling party. I can tell you for free that they are not comfortable with the development,” an analyst said.

With years of experience in Nigerian journalism, Iniobong Iwok has built a reputation for deep political insight, compelling storytelling, and consistent, fact-driven reporting.

Over the years, he has gained extensive experience reporting and writing incisive political analysis. Iniobong has interviewed key political figures across Nigeria and covered major national events, including the 2019 and 2023 general elections.

A versatile journalist, he also has strong experience in education reporting and sector analysis. His work reflects a deep commitment to good governance and public accountability.

Iniobong holds a B.Sc. in Sociology from the University of Ilorin and an M.Sc. in Sociology (Development Specialisation) from Lagos State University.

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