20 rotations in 1000 years

VIEW FROM THE GALLERY BY MAHMUD JEGA

VIEW FROM THE GALLERY BY MAHMUD JEGA

The “renewed debate” over rotational presidency that was kicked off by some big political actors last week, have they spared a thought for where it could end? At a meeting organised by National Summit of Former Legislators [did the Constitution provide for such a forum?], former House of Representatives Speaker and current Chief of Staff to the President Femi Gbajabiamila, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, former Senate President Anyim Pius Anyim and former House Speakers Patricia Etteh and Yakubu Dogara were all said to have called for rotational presidency between North and South to be enshrined in the 1999 Constitution.

Gbajabiamila, in particular, was reported to have said that North-South rotational presidency “is a wise and principled compromise designed to manage Nigeria’s diversity, ease political tensions and preserve national stability.” His view was important because, while most of the forum’s participants were eminent Ex-this Ex-that’s, apart from DSP Barau Jibrin, Gbajabiamila is the only man of current power at the summit. The Tinubu Presidency is widely alleged to have caged the Legislature, Judiciary, APC, state governors and by extension state assemblies. If that is true, then the Chief of Staff’s opinion could soon be rammed into the Constitution.

Have they however spared a thought as to where this will end? North versus South feeling is probably the most powerful emotion in Nigerian politics, but it is hardly the only one. When the National Party of Nigeria [NPN] introduced “zoning” of party and state offices in 1978, it faced a barrage of criticism, notably from Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN. Five decades later, zoning has been elevated to a gospel truth in Nigerian politics at all levels. It is ok when things evolve as traditions, but writing it into the Constitution promises to generate a myriad of problems of its own. First, you must define who is a Northerner and who is a Southerner. North of what and South of what? If the dividing line are Rivers Niger and Benue, some Northerners live south of those rivers. Where a Nigerian comes from is also complicated by his or her remote ancestry, his or her maternal origins, place of birth, place of settlement, languages spoken, accent, where he or she went to school, where she [in particular] married, career history, and also the indigineship certificate that a person holds, which can be obtained fraudulently.

Already, some people have been campaigning to secede from the North under the name “Middle Belt.” Middle of where? Just like Biafra advocates have drawn up maps that incorporate all the Niger Delta states, Middle Belt advocates have drawn up maps that incorporate all six North Central states as well as areas as far north as southern Borno, the whole of Southern Kaduna State, [parts of] Zuru Emirate in Kebbi State, and large swathes of Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe states, which politically are defined as North East. If this wishful map were based on religion, it is problematic because four of the six North Central states probably have Muslim majorities. While National Population Commission has not conducted any census of tribes or religions since 1973, politicians in every state have a very good idea of the ethnic and religious balance in their states, and inferences can be made from the voting behaviors of states since 1999. That Niger, Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa have consistently elected Muslim governors indicates the religious balance in those states, but that is by the way.

Who said regionalism is a more powerful sentiment than religion? Remember the hue and cry in 2023 about the “Muslim-Muslim ticket;” some people will soon demand that religious rotation be enshrined in the Constitution. Only that, they assume there are only Christians and Muslims in Nigeria, when in fact there are traditional religions, Ifa priests, Okija shrines, and the pre-Islamic Hausa deity Magiro.

When we finish with North South rotation, we must quickly face rotation among the six geopolitical zones of North and of South. Most vociferous here will be South Eastern advocates, who will point out that since 1999, Southwest and South south have both “tasted” power, to the exclusion of the Southeast. In the North too, advocates will say two civilian presidents from the Northwest [in fact from the same state] since 1999 marginalised Northeast and North Central. If we start in 2027, it will take us until 2075 for each zone to occupy the Presidency for eight years, by which time most Nigerians above 20 years of age today would be gone.

If you think by rotating among North and South and then among the three geopolitical zones in each region you have solved the problem, it is not so. Many states will still advocate that their states had not had a turn to taste power, so we must rotate among states within each zone. Right now there are 36 states and FCT; if we begin in 2027, the Presidency would have gone round each state for eight years by 2,323 AD. Even the great grandchildren of present-day Nigerians will be lucky to be alive by then.

Who said it will end there? Though Senatorial zones are a relatively new creation in Nigeria, created by FEDECO in 1978, they have acquired powerful sentimentality in many states, and when it is the turn of a state to produce the President, it must also rotate among the senatorial zones. That will take us until 2,915AD to finish rotation between senatorial zones if we begin in 2027. That will be a time line half as long since the coming of Jesus Christ; two-thirds of the time as long since the birth of Islam; about as long as the Ottoman Empire lasted; more than twice as long since Christopher Columbus lost his way to India and “discovered” North America.

In many states, sentimental attachment to senatorial zones is not nearly as strong as attachment to Emirates, Kingdoms, Chiefdoms and, in some parts of the country, to Autonomous Communities. Such feeling is so strong that around 2000 AD, then Jigawa State governor Ibrahim Saminu Turaki distributed all the state’s ministries among the Emirates. In 1991 General Babangida privately said he was splitting old Oyo State because of the hot rivalry between Oyo and Ife. Given the recent revival of traditional rivalry between Olubadan and Soun of Ogbomosho, we must factor in rotation between chiefdoms so that each one will “taste” the presidency.

Then we will have to rotate between ethnic groups. Defining them alone will give Historians, linguists, archeologists and agitators many sleepless nights. I once visited a museum at the University of Pittsburg. They showed me a list of 350 Nigerian ethnic groups and asked me to identify my own. I was confused because my ethnicity is an amalgam of at least four ethnic groups since the middle of the 19th century alone!

Then we must rotate between men and women. In 1999, PDP presidential aspirant Chief Phillip Asiodu invited me to his hotel room when he visited Kaduna. I found him locked in an argument with Mrs. Sarah Jibril; she told him that North-South rotation was not nearly as important as rotation between men and women, and I think she has a point there. The physical, biological social and psychological difference between a man and a woman is greater than, and has wider differences in temperament and policy outlook, than between a Yoruba man and a Hausa man.

Don’t forget, for ten years now there has been a strident campaign of Not Too Young to Run. Since last year, a push by youth advocates to peg the age for running for president at 70 also generated a Not Too Old to Run campaign. There must be a rotation between elders and youths; one group touts experience, wisdom and knowledge of history while the other group touts vigour, optimism and a relatively baggage-free historical slate. Elderly politicians assembled at the Forum of Ex Legislators should not push their luck too far because a Forum of Future Legislators could soon spring up to throw them out.

Who said it will end there? There will still be clamour for rotation between Natives and Settlers; between Farmers and Pastoralists; between Rural and Urban Nigerians; between Pensioners and those who are still Working; between professional groups such as Engineers, Accountants, Doctors and Academics; between occupational groups such as Hunters, Mechanics and Drivers; between Businessmen and Public Sector workers; between Soldiers and Civilians. Some people will say that soldiers occupied the Presidency for 16 years since 1999, but policemen, intelligence agents and paramilitaries must also have their turn. Nigerians in Diaspora, a remittance power behind the recent surge of the Naira, must also get a rotation. The constitutional provision that one needs a secondary school certificate to run for office must be amended so that Presidency will rotate to illiterates. There must also be ideological rotation to Socialists, Communists, Fascists, Nazis, Zionists and Anarchists, all of which must also taste power in Nigeria.

Oga Gbajabiamila and the other rotation advocates, look before you leap. What you are doing is seeking to impose a permanent solution to a temporary problem.