WAHALA AT WADATA HOUSE

The crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party cannot be resolved through politics but by law, writes BOLAJI ADEBIYI

In a recent online article titled “The Tragedy of Brilliance,” Babafemi Ojudu, a former senator and a pioneer of guerrilla journalism, expressed a profound but often overlooked truth about politics. According to him, people, allies, and enemies alike do not act based on what is right. They act on what they fear, what they desire, and what they believe protects them.

This succinctly explains the ongoing crisis within the leading opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party. The party started moving towards instability shortly before the 2022 presidential primaries, in which Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president of the country, secured the ticket against the prevailing national mood that favoured shifting the seat of power from the North to the South. Perhaps his victory would have been acceptable to Nyesom Wike, the first runner-up, if he had been convinced that the process was transparent.

Ultimately, an inconsolable Wike joined forces with four other governors from the party to undermine Atiku’s chances by supporting Bola Tinubu, the leading All Progressives Congress candidate, to win the election. In return for his considerable contribution to the opposition party’s victory, he was rewarded with a lucrative ministerial portfolio as the head of the Federal Capital Territory. Instead of leaving the PDP for his benefactor’s party, he chose to stay and stir up trouble, which continues to this day.

So, was Atiku’s decision to run against the national sentiment favouring a power shift to the South after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency correct? Was the decision of David Mark, the convention chairman, to allow Aminu Tambuwal, another northern aspirant, to announce his step down for Atiku after all the aspirants had presented, correct? Perhaps not. Why did these events occur?

Assuming, without conceding, that Wike was genuinely aggrieved, why did he not, out of respect for the overall interest of the party, accept reconciliation and work towards its success in the election? Why did he remain troublemaking within the fold until he was expelled at the last November convention in Ibadan? Perhaps the answers lie in Ojodu’s assertion that politicians act not according to the truth, but in defence of their personal interests.

The outcome is the prevailing deadlock, which has severely drained the party. A few months ago, Atiku, whom many analysts blame for the crisis, moved with several of his senior allies, including David Mark, former President of the Senate, to the African Democratic Congress. The ongoing crisis has threatened its ability to field candidates for the upcoming off-season gubernatorial elections in Osun and Ekiti states next year.

Uncertain of the legal status of the party’s National Working Committee, many of its first-term governors have defected to the relatively peaceful ruling APC. The exodus started from the South-south, the former stronghold of the party. The first to defect earlier this year was Delta State’s Sheriff Oborevwori. He was followed by Pastor Eno Umoh (Akwa Ibom), Duoye Diri (Bayelsa State), and Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers State). These defections have left the party without a single governor in the high-voting, oil-rich region. On Wednesday, the dancing governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, switched to the Accord Party in a pragmatic move to prevent his second term ambitions from being derailed by the crisis.

Despite the PDP’s loss of 11 governors down to six, with two more, Agbu Kefas (Taraba State) and Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau State), preparing to defect to the APC at any moment, the party’s leadership has not softened their stance. Kabiru Turaki, a former minister and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, elected at the Ibadan convention last month, claims to be the authentic national chairman with the support of the party’s governors led by Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and 29 state chairmen. On the other side of the divide is Abdulrahman Muhammed, the North-central zonal vice-president loyal to Wike. Both factions have established their NWC and Board of Trustees and expelled key figures from the opposing side. The only remaining step is for the Wike group to select its National Executive Committee.

With both sides stubbornly clinging to their positions, it is hard to see how political reconciliation can be achieved. The way forward would have been a consensual resort to the party’s constitution, with a commitment to be guided by its provisions. Incidentally, it was the PDP leadership’s disloyalty to the same constitution, combined with the entrenchment of powerful interests, that has brought the party to its knees. Nevertheless, it is only the constitution, extant electoral law, and the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, as altered, that can definitively separate the conflict and resolve the complex issue.

It is significant that both sides have submitted their grievances to the courts for resolution. While all sides have obtained multiple favourable orders, it is reassuring that the judicial system through its hierarchical structure will ultimately make definitive decisions on who is on the right side of the law. This may prove to be the ultimate saviour of the party, as it has been in the past.

After losing power in 2015, the PDP faced a severe crisis. Incidentally, Wike, then governor of Rivers State, was a key figure in the trauma following that electoral defeat. For three years, the party was split by multiple court cases between two factions: one led by Ali Modu Sheriff, a former governor of Borno State who defected from the APC, and the other by Ahmed Makarfi, a former governor of Kaduna State. Eventually, all conflicting lower court orders were appealed to the Court of Appeals, which then referred the cases to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court consolidated the multiple cases and delivered a unanimous decision in favour of the Makarfi faction.

It is against this background that those who suggest that the prevailing crisis will destroy and bury the PDP may be mistaken. The party is a resilient and organic political organisation that has the capacity to withstand internal crises no matter how complicated. That it will survive this one is not in doubt. What remains uncertain is whether it will recover quickly enough to be able to successfully challenge the ruling APC in the 2027 presidential election. It is not likely.

Adebiyi, a Fellow of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, writes from Abuja.