THE QUESTION BEFORE TAMBUWAL

As former Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal clocks 60, JOHN DANIEL asks: what next?

From a largely unknown lawyer and teacher in Sokoto, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal just didn’t happen onto our political consciousness; he hit us like a high-speed freight train. First as a Special Assistant on Legislative Matters to the-then Senate Leader, then a member and later Speaker of the House of Representatives before culminating in the governorship of Sokoto State. His rise through the political ranks has largely been propelled by a combination of several factors chief among which are his strength of character, strong political conviction and exceptional leadership qualities.

Tambuwal is also a very simple and humble politician, with an unwavering commitment to excellence. His innovative approach to leadership and his ability to collaborate with others to achieve the larger good sets him apart from others. Overall, his leadership style is characterized by vision, integrity, and a commitment to improving the lives of the electorate as exemplified by his run-away success as the governor of Sokoto State. Throughout his political career, Tambuwal has been defined by his purposeful and result-oriented leadership. He is a politician who is neither obsessed with self-glorification nor engaged in self-adulation. Rather, his focus is on policy and institutional reforms, delivering democratic dividends, and leaving a footprint of enduring legacy. His achievements in office were not just visible; they were measurable.

However, the question on the lips of his associates, admirers, followers and political opponents alike today is whether Tambuwal can parlay his successes so far and his goodwill among his people onto a higher realm of political ascendancy. Citizens want to see if he can ride the wave of national acceptance he has garnered over the past decades to the highest office in the land. What are his chances? What obstacles – political and administrative – stand in his way? Which one of his impressive attributes will help in scaling the hurdles of a presidential primary and, subsequently, national elections? Will the acceptance he has enjoyed from a section of the polity translate into a wider, general acceptance needed to win the ultimate prize?

To be sure, an election into the National Assembly isn’t the same as a presidential run. While one is local and confined to his local constituency, the other is national, far-reaching, and definitely more expansive. And election into the governorship office, even though state-wide, is still incomparable to an election into the presidential office. It, therefore, needs no saying that what has worked for Tambuwal in his political career so far may prove not to be enough to carry him over the finish line in a presidential contest.

When he contested his party’s presidential primaries ten years ago, one glaring but hardly noticed drawback was this: every single person that has won a presidential election in the entire period of the 4th Republic had an experience in executive administration. Today, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and former two-term governor of Lagos State, continues the unwritten practice of winners of the presidential election having prior executive experience. In 2015, Aminu Tambuwal didn’t have that executive experience. Today, however, the story has changed. Now, he can boast of having the single thread that connects every president in the 4th Republic: executive experience.  But will that be enough to earn him the coveted office?

Not if the fate of other politicians with executive experiences is anything to go by. Becoming the president of a country as vast, as diverse and as fragmented in its fabled unity as Nigeria, takes a whole lot more than a mere executive experience. But it helps that Aminu Tambuwal has that experience under his belt.

What he also has under his belt that could help his course if and when he throws his hat in the presidential ring again are his track record of performance and achievements over the years. His admirers believe that his leadership skills, integrity and understanding of Nigeria’s complexities, in addition to his key strengths as a visionary leader, a unifying force, and a man of integrity and transparency who has a clear vision for Nigeria’s development, would make him a difficult candidate to beat. His focus on security, economy, education and healthcare, and his ability to promote dialogue and understanding among different ethnic and religious groups would also be a clear advantage, they claim.

Other assets that he could deploy in a presidential bid are his track record of consensus-building and his adeptness at navigating fractious party dynamics. It is also believed that his calm demeanour and ability to defuse tensions – a character trait that has earned him much respect across party lines – would be a currency that could come in handy in a presidential bid. In addition, his stated policy proposals focused on restructuring Nigeria, promoting fiscal federalism, and addressing security and economic challenges, could also be an advantage he could hang his presidential ambition hat on. Tambuwal believes in the Nigerian project and would expectedly deploy every political arsenal at his behest to see him become the country’s president.

Some of the key policy thrusts he has proposed, and which may help his presidential cause, include fiscal federalism, security, and inclusive economic growth. He advocates restructuring Nigeria’s federal system to give more autonomy to states and emphasizes the need for improved security measures to tackle banditry and kidnapping. He has also harped on plans to address economic challenges and promote development.

Despite this array of admittedly impressive CV, the road to Aso Rock will certainly not be an easy one for Tambuwal should he try. His immediate challenge would be the political platform on which to deploy for such aspiration, considering that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is more or less the special purpose vehicle for the 2027 aspiration of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. But perhaps the greatest obstacle to Tambuwal’s 2027 ambition will be the current President Ahmed Bola Tinubu–a man who, against all expectations, has continued to go from strength to strength–if he goes ahead to contest for a 2nd term. As things stand, there is nothing to indicate he won’t, so Tambuwal’s chances may lie in 2031 election, that is assuming he is still in active politics by then. But as he clocks 60 today, I wish Tambuwal happy birthday.

, Daniel is an Abuja-based public affairs analyst