2026 budget: FG targets 2.06m bpd, $64 crude oil, N1,512/$1 exchange rate

….Targets N34.33t revenue

….As FEC approves 2026–2028 MTEF, Sets Fiscal Policy framework

After months of uncertainty surrounding the 2026 budget, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) endorsed the 2026-2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) on Wednesday for submission to the National Assembly. The fiscal policy paper outlined the nation’s core economic benchmarks, projected revenues, and fiscal direction for the next three years.

Under the new policy framework released on Wednesday, the Federal Government is targeting 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production, even though the government has set 1.8 million barrels per day in the worst-case scenario, as well as a crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel.

Read also: Bauchi Governor presents N878.15bn 2026 budget to state assembly

The naira is projected at an exchange rate of ₦1,512 to $1 against the US dollar in the 2026 budget. Other parameters include ₦34.33 trillion revenue in 2026.

Atiku Bagudu, the minister of budget and economic planning, unveiled the framework after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, presided over by President Bola Tinubu, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. Bagudu revealed that the Council approved a crude oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, while a more cautious figure of 1.8 million barrels per day will serve as the basis for budgetary planning.

He expressed confidence that with macroeconomic stability now taking root, it is imperative to sustain the ongoing reforms. He noted that once the outlined measures are fully implemented, along with the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper, they will catalyse stronger and more sustained economic growth.

Read also: Oborevwori presents N1.664trn 2026 budget to Delta Assembly

The Council also approved an oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel, alongside a projected exchange rate of ₦1,512 to $1 for the 2026 fiscal year. The federal government’s projected revenue for 2026 stands at ₦34.33 trillion, reflecting ongoing efforts to boost non-oil earnings, strengthen tax administration, and expand the nation’s economic base.

The federal government’s expenditure breakdown by major heads shows that statutory transfers will be around ₦3 trillion, debt service expenditure will be ₦10.91 trillion, and non-recurrent expenditure (personnel cost) will be around ₦15.27 trillion. The deficit is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, which is 3.61% of the estimated GDP.

The exchange rate assumption took into account the fact that 2026 precedes a national election year, noting that all parameters were drawn from extensive fiscal and macroeconomic analysis undertaken by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies.

In addition, the Federal Executive Council took comments and approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which guides spending limits and helps ensure a disciplined budgeting process.

Read also: Uba Sani presents ₦985.9bn 2026 budget to Kaduna Assembly

President Tinubu sought the endorsement of the National Economic Council (NEC) for enhanced vigilance across the Federation to curb revenue leakages arising from illegal activities in the oil and gas sector as well as in the exploitation of critical minerals.

He emphasised the need for substantial transformational investment in national infrastructure and urged renewed hope for infrastructure funding from both the federal government and constituents of the Federation, as well as measures to boost domestic production and diligent implementation of the renewed work development programme.

Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date