2027: Defections heighten fear of single party contest

With the defection of almost all the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP)governors and majority of federal lawmakers to the All Progressives Congress (APC) fears have heightened over the 2027 general elections turning out to be one party contest. Eighteen parties participated in the 2023 elections with a few not presenting presidential candidates but participating in the governorship, national and state assembly elections with many of the parties winning seats at various levels. Candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; Labour Party, LP; and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP; candidates put up good showings in the presidential election scoring 6,984,520; 6,101,533 and 1,496,687 votes respectively. The APC candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, won with 8,794,726 votes. Observers posited then that with the impressive outing of the opposition candidates, they would have beaten the APC candidate if they come together There were indications that leaders of the opposition parties were trying to work in that direction ahead 2027 until crises hit each of their political platforms. Inside sources in the opposition say the crises were externally instigated to ensure the parties do not produce presidential candidates in 2027. All eyes had been on the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) to challenge the incumbent president. Initially the opposition parties were resisting trying to form new alliances to solidify their opposition. Daily Trust reports that the African Democratic Congress ADC DC and the PDP have consistently taken on the ruling party and President Bola Tinubu’s administration, criticising policy decisions and highlighting what they describe as the government’s failure to tackle the avalanche of challenges confronting the nation. But their inability to put their houses in order like the APC did in 2014 has made the opposition appear ill prepared to put up strong contest in 2027. Analysts observe that the crises in the opposition parties especially the PDP has made those eyeing second terms to quit for the ruling party. PDP state governors who have defected to the APC are Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta; Peter Mbah of Enugu; Umoh Eno of Akwa Ibom: Douye Diri of Rivers and Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers. The PDP recently held its national convention where it elected a new set of leadership but this has hardly addressed the issue within party as the group loyal to the FCT minister is threatening to good it’s convention. But even with the impending elections, apart from the ADC where three persons have indicated interest, it is not clear who would likely aspire for the presidential ticket of the parties unlike in the past Even the NNDP on which platform Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso contested in 2023 does not appear favourable for a repeat stake .

Opposition parties inaction Observers say smaller parties in the opposition are also not helping matters. The general inaction on their side, weak organisational structure and tendency to align with bigger parties raise fresh questions about their capacity to make a difference in the 2027 polls. This is even as most of them have failed to win governorships, senate seats, or even maintain a consistent presence in state assemblies, while others have the tendency to adopt the presidential candidates of big parties. In May, during President Tinubu’s visit to Anambra State, Governor Charles Soludo, the only governor elected on the APGA platform, reaffirmed the party’s longstanding policy of supporting the party in power and said the position remained unchanged under his leadership. His endorsement came at a time when several opposition governors, particularly from the PDP, were endorsing Tinubu, with some defecting to the ruling APC. In August, Soludo again restated his support for the president, saying his backing ahead of the 2027 elections was rooted in a 22-year friendship and the administration’s bold economic reforms. But addressing newsmen on Wednesday in Abuja during a review of APGA’s activities from January to December, 2025, APGA’s Chairman, Sly Ezeokenwa, said while the party was committed to supporting President Tinubu to succeed, any formal adoption for the 2027 race would be a collective decision of the NEC. “Adopting the president is a decision that the NEC of the party will make at the appropriate time. But for now, we support the president to succeed on his mandate to the people of Nigeria. That’s all we can say for now,” he said. Analysts have argued that APGA might be unwilling or unable to contest the presidency in 2027 following the remarks by its top leaders. Chief Chekwas Okorie, founder of APGA and the defunct United Progressives Party (UPP), told Daily Trust in a telephone interview yesterday that without deep financial resources, small parties simply could not contest elections seriously, including the 2027 polls. He noted that even the unexpected rise of the LP in 2023 was powered largely by the personal momentum Peter Obi built outside LP. “Even then, LP failed to deploy agents to over 120,000 polling units, according to INEC, showing how financial limitation curtailed its national competitiveness. This monetisation of elections not only weakens small parties but distorts the political field in favour of incumbents who have access to state resources and private-sector donors. “Industrialists and billionaires overwhelmingly fund those already in power, expecting policy protection and political returns. Small parties, on the other hand, lack both visibility and leverage to attract comparable financial support,” he said A political scientist and former federal lawmaker, Hon Bernard Mikko, in a chat with Daily Trust, argued that Nigeria inherited political structures from the top rather than building them from the grassroots. Mikko argued that this led to several systemic consequences, including parties’ lack of ideological clarity, and that politicians moved freely from one party to another, stressing that smaller parties became fallback options for aspirants who failed to secure tickets elsewhere. “Voters see parties as vehicles for power, not governance. Some parties serve as negotiation vehicles for mergers, endorsements or political appointments. “This hollow political culture explains why some parties cannot maintain national secretariats, run functional offices or conduct genuine congresses. It also explains why some exist only on paper, with leadership concentrated within a single family or local clique,” he said. A former National Chairman of the de-registered Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA), Chief Peter Ameh, told Daily Trust in a telephone interview that Nigeria lacked a level-playing field. He said parties in power misused state’s resources, undermining voluntary membership financing, an element critical to sustainable party development in democracies like the US and the UK. “When members do not contribute dues, parties remain dependent on a few wealthy patrons, limiting their autonomy and growth,” he said.

Business as usual or a moment of change Some analysts however believe 2027 will present a different landscape. They are of the notion that public dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration, driven by economic hardship and governance concerns, may create opportunities for alternative platforms. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) currently recognises 19 registered political parties. They are Accord (A), Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC ), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressives Congress (APC), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM ), Action Peoples Party (APP) and Boot Party (BP). Others are Labour Party (LP ), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), National Rescue Movement (NRM), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Young Progressive Party (YPP ), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and Youth Party (YP). An official of BP who does not want to be named told Daily Trust that there was no hope for small parties in 2027. “There is no hope small parties will make any impact in 2027. Many will remain financially dependent, structurally weak or strategically passive. In some cases, their electoral objective will simply be to win a single seat to avoid de-registration,” he said. Similarly, an official of YPP told Daily Trust that, “The APC and other big parties have corrupted the system. We will field our candidates but we are not sure of victory.” A political analyst, Jackson Lekan Ojo, told Daily Trust that many small parties lacked the infrastructure required by law, noting that some operated from makeshift Secretariat. He said many of the parties are “caricatures” run like family businesses, with chairmanship and leadership positions shared among relatives and cannot make any impact in the 2027 polls. Ojo called for their de-registration. Another analyst, Aminu Yakudima, said many small parties existed primarily as commercial ventures, with some founders pushing for party registration to access grants, attract donors and negotiate political deals. According to him, the platforms often become fallback options for aspirants who fail to secure tickets in major parties and seek alternative structures for negotiations. He, however, said they shouldn’t be de-registered.

PDP, APC react National publicity secretary of the PDP Comrade Ini Ememobong observed that democracy is terribly threatened by acts of this kind, saying all well-meaning people should unify in condemning this progressive decline of democratic norms. He said the defections show an unrelenting disposition of the ruling party towards the attainment of a one-party state, and the constriction of the political space, democracy is under severe attack in Nigeria. Everyone must rise together to oppose this ignoble trip toward electoral authoritarianism. But the APC has consistently denied that it is not forcing anyone to join the party saying those defecting are only doing so because they believe in the leadership style of the president.

‘2027 is between APC and Nigerians ‘ The African Democratic Congress, ADC, said they are not surprised by the influx of governors from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, saying it is for protection. Bolaji Abdullahi, National Publicity Secretary of the party told Daily Trust in telephone interview on Wednesday that in spite of the defection, the coming general elections is between the APC and Nigerians. He said what the ADC is concerned about is selling the party to Nigerians, adding however that what the people should be worried about is the move towards totalitarianism where the President controls the National Assembly, the Executive and have influence on the judiciary. He said, “Its significant, of course. I mean, but for us, we don’t expect anything different. So what we are doing, the opposition, we are not doing this because we have the expectation that some of these governors will come on our side. And like we have repeatedly maintained, what is most important to us is how to market ourselves to Nigerians. “Some of these governors are part of the problem. So we don’t have any problem with them going to the ruling party because all of them have one thing or the other to protect and we feel that that’s where their interest is best protected.” He said the defections will not affect the 2027 general elections. “Like, we always maintain, it would be APC versus Nigerian people and some of these governors are part of the problem, like I said. I know many state governors that, if you say that they are joining a political party, it’s actually a liability to the party not an asset. It’s not love for APC that is taking them there. It’s just looking for a way they can get protection. That’s all,this is not about principle or belief in anything. “It’s about vulnerability and where they think they can get protection. That’s all. If ADC were to be in power today, they would have run to ADC. Even if is PDP that’s in power today, all of them would have joined PDP. So they don’t believe in anything. It’s just about protection. Even if it’s PRP that’s in power, they would have joined PRP. So it doesn’t mean anything to them.” He said what the ADC is more worried about is the totalitarianism, “where the president controls the National Assembly and has the kind of influence he has on the judiciary and, of course, the kind of totalitarian control he has on the executive, that should concern Nigerians even more than anything. So that’s what is playing out, that people are not paying attention to.”

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